Summary:

Warm weather continues through Friday.  Winds pick up for your Halloween ahead of a storm for Saturday and Sunday.  Snowfall likely in the mountains (and maybe even valleys on Sunday).

Details:

Quiet weather set to continue through Friday with all eyes focused on the weekend.  Friday afternoon could get windy and there maybe be a few trick-or-treaters blowing around in the wind.

Saturday the storm itself starts to move into the area.  Trends in the last 24 hours have been to slow down the arrival of the system until later in the day on Saturday and into Saturday night.  The other trend has been for the system to split more as it moves inland.  To be totally honest, I have a really bad feeling about this system.  There are just a number of things that could go wrong.  For that reason, i think setting your expectations a bit lower in the 3-6" range for the mountains is wise -- just know that there's a possibility of 6-12" if everything goes right.

There is also another wild card -- lake effect.  As mentioned the other day, this is the optimal time of year for lake effect as the GSL's surface temps are still very warm.  Due to our warm October, they are even warmer now than average.  So all we need is a modestly cold airmass with an unstable northwest flow and BOOM! Lake effect snow.  As always, it's very difficult to forecast, but don't be surprised if areas downwind of the GSL get some lake effect action on Sunday behind the front.

Snow levels will start out above 8,000 feet but should quickly fall below 6,000 feet Saturday evening and eventually to most valley floors on Sunday.

Long range:

We should clear out by Monday and high pressure looks set to return for most of next week.  Yesterday all major models were showing a large trough developing by November 9, today they are not so gung ho.  In fact, there is very little agreement at all.  It was looking like we would be getting a running start into winter, but now this happened...

 

Don't worry, this long range is all 10+ days away and totally subject to change.  Really, anything is possible at this point so keep up the good thoughts and a storm or two will pop up!

Evan | OpenSnow