Update 8 PM:

Interesing weather tonight as we watch a slow moving band of heavy precip push South down the Sierra.  Currently the narrow band stretches between Chico and Quincy, and is moving South very slowly.  It could be after midnight that the snow reaches the Tahoe Basin.  With temperatures dropping into the mid-twenties already and forecast down into the teens to around 20, there will be high snow:liquid ratios when the snow does fall.  We could pick up several inches of light powder in the morning hours if the band holds together and continues to move slowly.

From This Moring:

A little more snow than expected along the crest overnight as the resorts West of the lake from Sierra up to Boreal are reporting 6-12 inches this morning.  Resorts on the East side of the lake reporting 4 inches.

Snow levels came up overnight to right around lake level overnight.  Picked up 6 inches at my house at 6750.  Driving down to Truckee this morning snow level was around 6200 ft. and then some rain/snow mix in town with a slushy accumulation.  The snow levels were expected to stay just below lake level but may hover right around lake level this morning before dropping.

The steadiest snow is pushing in today and we should see the heaviest snow around mid-day ahead of the cold front this afternoon.  Expecting 2-5 inches at lake level today with 4-8 inches above 7000 ft. and 6-9 West of the lake along the crest.  Lingering snow showers tonight could add another inch or two.

We start to clear out on Tuesday with a cold day and highs only in the 20's.  That lasts into Wednesday before clouds start to arrive ahead of the big storm headed our way for the end of the week and into next weekend.

Confidence continues to grow in the forecast as the forecast models continue to come into agreement.  They agree the first push of moisture arrives Thursday night and continues all the way to Christmas Eve as a cold low pressure works its way down the coast drawing in moisture off the Pacific.  They also agree there is plenty of cold and snow levels stay well below lake level. 

They also agree on a lot of snow during the 3-4 day period but differ quite a bit on the number of feet.  The GFS model is currently the wettest showing 4-6 feet of snow in the Tahoe Basin and 6-8 feet along the crest.  The European model shows around half of that amount.  We'll take 2-4 feet but hopefully the GFS is right.  We should have a better idea on the amount of moisture in the next couple of days.  If you are traveling this weekend plan on a long trip.

Here is the total precip forecast for week 1 and week 2.

You can see that week 2 the precip continues.  Model consensus right now is that there is a break for Christmas Day and then the GFS has the storms continuing by next Wednesday while the Euro holds them off until the end of the week.  Any forecast out more than a week can change, but looking at the teleconnection forecasts it looks like the storms could continue into the New Year.

Stay tuned and have fun out there today in all the new snow...BA