We saw snow levels drop a bit lower than expected overnight.  Briefly below 6k into Truckee.  A couple inches of slop fell on the North side of the lake and SW of the lake.  Looks like mainly rain SE over South Lake.  That means mainly all snow overnight on the mountains above 7k which is good news!

Here is a look at the the heavy moisture streaming in this morning that will continue today.

You can see that temperatures fell overnight with the freezing level dropping below 8000 feet.  They came up a bit this morning with snow levels back to around 7000 feet as of 7 a.m.  But colder air is dropping temps again the past hour.

Snow levels should hold about where they are this morning and as colder air works in today they will start to slowly fall through the day, down to lake level by this evening.  We will have to watch all day to see if the heavy precip can drag them lower like last night.

The forecast I had out yesterday was for 24 hour amounts of 7-16 inches above the snow line.  Since the snow line sat near to below 7k last night all of the ski resorts are reporting right on the forecast range with reports of 7-18 inches this morning.  The single digit reports are coming in from mountains that measure below 8k and double digits form mountains that measure above 8k.

Storm totals are now at 9-21 inches on the upper mountains.  We saw an inch of wet snow to the lower bases last night so that is the low end.  So the storm is on track so far. 

I'm pretty sure that during these AR events Mt. Rose creates it's own climate.  The heavy precip knocks down the winds on the East side of the lake and the heavy precip drags the snow levels down.  I've seen this with many of these storms.  We see snow levels lower near Incline and snowfall amounts higher as well.  Here is a reader report from this morning.

You can see on satellite this morning the popcorn shaped clouds off the coast which is where the cold air is that is pushing in towards the coast.

Let me break the rest of this storm down by 12 hour periods...

Thursday Day/Night:

Heavy snow continues today with snow levels slowly lowering to lake level by late afternoon.  We could see 9-20 inches of additional snowfall on the mountains today.  Ridge top winds to 80+ mph will cause lift closures.  High temps in the 30's.

Tonight the snow levels drop quickly well below lake level this evening, but the moisture streaming in also shifts South and shuts off the snow pretty quickly.  We could see an additional 1-3 inches of snow.  Below is the total snowfall forecast by Friday morning.

Friday Day/Night:

Still expecting a break for Friday and maybe the sun peaking out, but with much colder air in place.  Highs only in the 20's up on the mountains.  Ridge top winds could still be gusting to 60 mph.

Friday night the models have been trending pretty weak with the front moving through with light snowfall.  We could see 1-3 inches at lake level by Saturday morning, and 2-4 inches on the mountains.

Saturday Day/Night:

Saturday it is still cold and ridge top winds could still gust to 50+ mph as the final wave rotates in.  Snow showers should continue on Saturday with another 1-3 inches possible.

Saturday night is where the models start to diverge.  The GFS is now much weaker with the low rotating in.  It has it falling apart with only light snow showers and a few more inches of snow possible.  The European model holds it together and has up to an inch of additional liquid along the crest, which would be over a foot of additional snowfall.  The average right now would be 3-6 inches for the East side of the lake, and 6-12 inches for the west side. 

Here is the total snowfall forecast for Friday night through Sunday morning.

Sunday:

Snow showers could linger into Sunday before we clear out later in the day.  The winds should finally drop off on the ridges.  It stays cold with highs in the 20's up on the mountains.  

Here is a look at the total precip forecast from this morning through Sunday morning.

That is 3.5 inches of additional liquid still to come along the crest.  Here is the total additional snowfall possible by Sunday.

That would bring the storm total on the mountains to the 2-5 feet from the original final forecast put out on Tuesday.  Let's hope the snow levels come down fast today and we see mostly snow on the mountains above 7k and decent amounts to the bases this afternoon and evening.

Next Week:

High pressure builds in next week with dry weather moving in for a while.  It starts cold Monday with highs in the 20's on the mountains and 30's at lake level.  They 30's and 40's for Tuesday, and warming into the 40's on the mountains and 50's at lake level for the end of the week, with lots of sun!

Long-Range:

The long-range ensemble runs still show lower heights over the West the week of the 2nd.  Nothing consistent showing up yet for a storm.  We should see some cooler air that week and we will watch to see if a storm can move in.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. I didn't post very much on the TahoeWeather social channels yesterday as there wasn't much precip and high snow levels above 8k.  I will be out on the mountains posting content today now that it's snowing.

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BA