Not much change to the forecast this morning.  We have Spring weather today with highs into the 50's and lots of sun.  Upper mountain ridge gusts are only up to 25 mph this morning, maybe up to 35 mph this afternoon.  Overall a nice day.

Sunday the clouds and winds increase.  I would expect lift closures with ridge top winds exceeding 70 mph by afternoon.  The snow from the storm could move in as early as late afternoon.  Highs in the 40's but the winds will make it feel colder.

Sunday night is when we should see heavy snowfall as the front moves through and this time there should be a better chance of snow showers firing up behind the front into Monday morning.  Then a 2nd wave of moisture could fire up more snow showers Monday afternoon into the evening before the storm clears out.

The forecast models have become a little wetter instead of drier with this storm.  The average is 1.2 inches between the latest GFS/Euro model runs, with the GFS below showing up to 1.3 inches and the Euro up to 1.1 inches along the crest by Monday evening.

The Canadian model only has up to 0.6 inches of liquid, but the NAM has a bullseye NW of the lake near Donner Summit of 1.9 inches!  So the average is still 1.2 inches and the WPC's blended model has 1.2 inches.  So that is what I'm using for this storm. 

With 15:1 ratios at 8,000 feet with the very cold air moving in that could mean a low end of 5 inches of snow at 7k on the East side of the lake up to 15 inches at 8k on West of the lake along the crest by Monday morning.  The snow showers Monday into Monday evening if they fire up could drop 1-3 more inches.  That is how we get the updated snowfall forecast numbers below by Monday evening.

One last cold powder day for Monday.  Highs only in the 20's on the mountains and the winds drop off.  I think Mother Nature is paying us back for the lack of snow in the middle of the Winter by gifting us another April powder day.  Here is a list of the updated resort closing dates so you know where you can still get a powder day Monday with lift access.

It looks like we will remain in a cool and breezy weather pattern all week with highs in the 30's and 40's through Friday.  The system for Thursday is splitting on the latest model runs.  We could still get brushed with some light snow on the mountains.  Maybe 1-3 inches, but we need to watch the track of the splitting pieces for Thursday.

The active weather pattern continues through the end of the month into the Pacific NW, with snow continuing to pile up into the Northern Rockies.

With the jet stream weakening and shifting North it looks like at most we will get brushed by some storms with shots of wind and cooler air.  We will keep watching in case a final storm drops far enough South the last week of the month to bring a final shot of snow to the mountains.  Of course we can still see snow in May, but only Squaw will be open.  I'll be sure to post on any approaching storms until Squaw closes.

I meant to post these March graphs last week.  I posted the snowfall numbers but these are the total precip maps for the Central Sierra Snow Lab in Soda Springs.  Here is a look a the total precipitation graph for March showing our above average month.

With a big November and March for wet storms we are right on the 50 year average of 51 inches for the water year Oct-Mar.

We had that big wet storm at the beginning of April, so we should be running above average now.  I will update the chart at the beginning of May when we have the final April numbers. 

Don't forget that even after the snow stops flying I will be posting blogs through the summer.  Some of them will be blogs of my travels with the family through the National Parks as part of our new app "OpenSummit"  which will focus on summer mountain activity weather, and I will also be posting from time to time on outlooks for next season.

Stay tuned...BA