Forecast:

The month of May was wet, it felt like we had showers almost everyday.  I'm still waiting on the final May numbers.  

The pattern we have been in the past month would be nice to have in the heart of Winter this upcoming season.  Just trough after trough and low after low moving through.  This time of year the jetstream is weak and the storm track is shifted North, so we mainly see some cooler air and maybe some afternoon thunderstorms as each system moves through. 

The troughs are continuing to move through to our North this week.  That is bringing wind today and more wind this upcoming weekend.  It is also keeping temperatures cool with highs only around 70 at lake level.  No 80's yet...

It does look like we are now locked into the mainly dry weather of Summer for June-August.  Now we just have to wait for the hot air to arrive.  I'm not complaining, these temperatures feel great.  The heat the past month has been mostly over the Central U.S.

Road Tripping:

I've been off of social media most of the past month.  I've been working hard on the RV restoration.  I'm just about done.  Just a few pieces of trim to do today.  It's pretty exciting to see it all done after 2 months of working away.  When you have the whole thing gutted it seems like an impossible task.  Planning to have it in the shop tomorrow for a final inspection of the engine and driveline, and then registering it on Wednesday.  

I'll post some pictures of the completed project in the next post.  Planning to do some weekend trips around the area later this month into July.  But the big trip around the country will start sometime between mid-July and mid-August with plan to return by mid-October in time for the first snowfall!

Next Winter:

Through the Summer I do post about the upcoming Winter season.  It is very early to be talking about next Winter, but we are already starting to look at the signals.

Right now the models are showing the possibility of a moderate El Nino, with a Modoki position possibly.  The latest JAMSTEC model shows a look similar to the Winter of 2014-15.  Not a great look for us on the West Coast.  Still plenty of time for that to change. 

The last time I forecast an above average Winter was back in the Fall of 2010.  Since then I've had out seasonal forecasts in the Fall for near to below average Winters.  The 2016-17 Winter was a big for us, but in the Fall the look of the pattern had that Winter going either way, and it definitely surprised everyone with the number of AR events in one season.  I'd prefer to have a look that strongly points towards an above average again one of these years...

But then wouldn't that make forecasting too easy? haha.  I remember in the 2010-11 season some critics saying anyone could forecast storms when they come in consistently and cold.  Sounds good to me, let's have that again...

Stay tuned...BA