We still have some clouds hanging around in the valleys with the inversions and no wind to mix it out.  The sun is rising and trying to poke through at lake level this morning, but above the cloud deck, the upper elevations are sunny.

We should see more sun as the day goes on with highs into the 40's. 

For Monday we have a weakening system moving through CA.  The latest forecast model runs are pretty dry with this storm, with the average total precip being less than a tenth of an inch.  I removed any snow from the forecast except for 0-1 inches west of the lake up along the crest.

The Wednesday storm now looks like it will stay to our north completely.

We could see some gusty winds again Wednesday, but right now it looks dry Tuesday-Thursday.  We should see some sun Tuesday and Thursday with temperatures warming into the 40's for the 3 days.  Here is a look at the total precip forecast now through Thursday on the WPC model.  Hardly any...

Looking at the ensemble mean height anomaly forecasts this morning, the first thing I noticed was a deeper and stronger trough pushing into CA on Friday on the GFS. 

The GFS operational runs are still pretty dry on Friday, but the trend on the European model has been for a wetter storm on Friday that doesn't weaken as much as it was showing the last several days.  On the resort forecast pages, I put in the average of a few inches of snow Friday night.  We will have to keep watching the trend to see if the other models start to show a slightly wetter system as well.

This storm should open the door to the next storm that moves in by Sunday.  The European model is not showing much of a break with the first storm departing Saturday morning and the next storm moving in by Saturday night.  It's a little early to look at details, but we are watching a storm for next weekend that could tap quite a bit of moisture off the Pacific and bring some heavy snowfall by Sunday.

There could be another storm right on the heels of the Sunday storm for Monday the 17th.  The 10-day total precipitation forecasts are getting wetter thanks to the storms Fri-Mon next weekend.

This will likely be the focus of the week as we watch the trend and track down the details of the storms for next weekend.

The storm door may remain open enough for another storm around the 20th.  But we have been talking about a positive PNA (pacific north american) pattern setting up as we head towards the last week of the month.  The long-range ensemble mean runs show high-pressure building over the Pacific NW starting around the 21st.

The last time I mentioned this a few days ago, people started to freak out about it being the end of Winter and a dry pattern for CA.  We have a warm ocean with a strong and active jet stream so far this season.  Storms may move under the ridge to the north and into CA.  The long-range European model runs show two storms with atmospheric rivers pushing into CA beyond the 20th.

We could have a drier pattern later in the month, but we could also have a very wet pattern.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S.  Earlier this week I was thinking to myself that I would love to do more this holiday season for those less fortunate.  Ironically I got a call from my buddy Jon yesterday asking if I would be interested in teaming up with him to get toys for children affected by the Camp fire that lost everything.  I, of course, said absolutely!

Join us for skiing and boarding on Friday at Sugar Bowl.  Bring a toy (valued at $15 or more) and get 50% off your lift ticket, and Sugar Bowl will also donate $5 to the relief fund.  Victims of the fire will be able to ski for free.  I'll be there with my toy and helping to collect toys and to hang out and ski with everyone.  Put it on your schedule this week!