I have done a lot of detailed explanations on the pattern and storms coming in for this upcoming week over the last several days.  Today I'm going to be brief and just run through each day and the snowfall potential.  There is much better model agreement this morning for the 3-day snowfall event Tue-Thu.  I went through the winds and snow levels in the Summary section in case you didn't read it.

Sunday-Monday:

We have sun and clouds again today as the next storm splits off our coast and stays off the coast.

The winds will be light again and it should be another nice day out.  There are a lot of people here skiing this weekend.  Many of the ski resorts were parked to capacity yesterday.  It's beautiful weather and a decent base.

Monday Night-Tuesday Night:

The models continue to trend with a slightly slower start to light snow pushing in as the 2nd wave moves through Tuesday into Tuesday night.  We could see very light snow move in Monday night, accumulating a coating to an inch by Tuesday morning.  You can see on the GFS only very light precip amounts by Tuesday morning.

The light snow is expected to continue on Tuesday with another inch or two possible.  Then increasing moisture pushing in Tuesday night with moderate snow possible, and 3-8 inches of additional snow possible on the mountains. 

The forecast models have a range in total precip amounts along the crest by Wednesday morning of 0.5 to 1.2 inches.  So still a little bit of a spread for the Tuesday system.  The average is 0.85 inches of total precip, so light snowfall amounts by Tahoe standards expected by Wednesday morning.  Here is a look at the GFS which is one of the wetter runs.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast for Monday night through Tuesday night.

Wednesday - Friday:

Wednesday into Wednesday night the next wave pushes in ahead of the stronger storm for Thursday.  The latest model runs have fairly light snow now for the day on Wednesday with only an additional inch or two.  Snow levels look to rise from 5,000 feet in the morning to 7,000 feet by evening as warmer air moves in.  Winds also increase with ridge gusts to 80+ mph so we could see some upper mountain lift closures.

Wednesday night the winds continue to increase and snowfall rates pick up as heavier precipitation moves in.  The snow levels look like they could hover around 7,000 feet, but heavier precip rates could push them down to 6,500 feet or even close to lake level.  For now, on the forecast, I'm not putting snowfall in the forecast at lake level.  We could see an additional 5-12 inches of snow on the mountains.

Thursday we have high winds and heavy snow.  Ridgetop winds should be gusting in excess of 100 mph.  The cold front pushes through dropping snow levels below lake level, down to around 5,000-5,500 feet.  We could see an additional 8-19 inches on the mountains during the day.  The high winds should close most upper mountain lifts.  The high winds and heavy snow will also make travel very difficult.

Thursday night snow showers fire up behind the front.  Snow levels drop to around 4,000 feet by Friday morning.  This is when we could see several inches of lighter density snow pile up on the mountains to cap off the storm.  We could see an additional 5-11 inches on the mountains. 

The GFS forecast model ends snow showers by early Friday morning.  The European model drops the center of low pressure down closer to the area with snow showers tapering off by Friday afternoon.  That could add a final 1-3 inches on the mountains Friday morning.  Winds could still be strong on the mountain tops Friday morning but should come down through the day.  Friday should be the best day to get fresh tracks.

From Wednesday to Friday morning total precip amounts near the crest range from 2.4 to 3.9 inches.  The average is 3 inches.  The GFS and European models average closer to 3.8 inches and are in very good agreement with each other on the totals.  Here is the GFS total precipitation forecast by Friday morning with up to 4.8 inches of total precip near the crest for the week.

Here is the updated 48-hour snowfall forecast for this storm.

Based on the latest forecast model runs, by the time we have the final tally next Saturday morning, we could have totals of 2-3+ feet on the mountains on the east side of the lake, and 3-5 feet on the west side.

Next Weekend:

High pressure builds in Friday afternoon into Saturday with nice weather expected.  The next storm moves into the Pacific NW Sunday.  The latest model runs push a cold front through and brush us with light snowfall.

Behind the Sunday system, high pressure builds in over the West with a dry pattern expected through the last week of January.

Stay tuned...BA

 Mark Your Calendars!  (click here)