Not much change to the forecast today, just some minor tweaks to snowfall details and snow levels by day.  Overall, still expecting around the same amount of total snowfall on the mountains by Friday morning.  

If you are wondering why it isn't snowing yet, you likely read news headlines about a week to 10 days of continuous snowfall.  If you have been reading along with us here, we were expecting splitting systems over the weekend, and a gradual ramp-up of snowfall this week. 

Monday:

We should see increasing clouds today as the system spinning near the CA coast pushes inland.  

The clouds and very little moisture will push north over the area Monday night.  We should see some light snow break out around the Tahoe area overnight, but the snowfall could be spotty with very light amounts expected.  I have the mountain forecasts at 0-1 inches.

Tuesday:

As the next wave pushes in Tuesday into Tuesday night, we will see an increase in moisture and precipitation over the area.  We should see light-moderate snow on Tuesday and then some heavier snow Tuesday night.

The forecast models are in a little better agreement on the high-end potential by Wednesday morning, with a range of 1 - 1.7 inches of total precip near the crest.  But the GFS forecast model has the heavier precip southwest of the lake near Kirkwood, and the European model has the heaviest precip northwest of the lake near Sugar Bowl.  So we will have to see where the heavier precip takes aim.

Here is a look at the total precipitation forecast on the NAM model through Tuesday night.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast for totals possible by Wednesday morning.  It has been increased several inches over yesterday with the European and GFS forecast models coming in wetter this morning for Tuesday night.  Snow levels look to stay below 6,000 feet through the period.

With very little, if any snow expected by early Tuesday morning, I'll have time to put out a final forecast for this system early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday:

Wednesday morning we may see much lighter snow as the Tuesday system departs and the Wednesday night storm approaches.  The GFS model keeps us pretty dry through the day with only up to an inch of additional snowfall.  The European model is pushing the next storm in a little earlier with heavy snowfall pushing in during the afternoon.  Overall it only matters for timing as the GFS catches up with heavy snowfall by evening.

The storm moving in by Wednesday evening is much stronger than the Tuesday system.  It is going to tap into plenty of moisture off the Pacific and point that atmospheric river right at Central CA by Wednesday night.

We will also see the strong jet stream push in over the area with plenty of forcing, and strong winds increasing through the day on Wednesday.  Ridgetop gusts should be to 70+ mph by afternoon, likely shutting down some of the upper mountain lifts.  Then increasing to 100+ mph Wednesday night.

We will see some warmer air work in ahead of the cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Snow levels look like they will increase to 6,500 feet by Wednesday evening.  Then the models show them peaking out around 7,500 feet by midnight before falling to 6,000 feet by Thursday morning as the cold front moves through.  The heavy precipitation rates may/should keep the snow levels down closer to 7,000 feet at the peak.

By Thursday morning we could see an additional 12-29 inches of snow the mountains.  

Thursday:

Heavy snow continues Thursday as the front moves through and heavy snow showers fire up behind the front with plenty of moisture still flowing in.  Winds will still be strong with gusts to 90+ mph hour on the mountain tops.  Snow levels continue to fall below 6,000 feet.  This will mean lighter density snow with high winds causing blowing and drifting snow.  Expect most upper mountain lifts to be closed in the morning.

The snow should turn more showery with more scattered bands going into Thursday night.  Colder air continues to move in with snow levels dropping below 4,000 feet.  So the last several inches of snow should be nice and powdery.  The strong winds should continue to come down through Thursday night.  The trend this morning on all models is to end the storm by Friday morning.

There is good agreement among the forecast models for total precipitation amounts with this storm.  Total precipitation forecasts have a high end along the crest of 3.9 - 4.4  inches, with lesser amounts east across the basin.  But plenty of spillover to the east side of the lake.  Here is the updated forecast for additional snowfall with this storm by Friday morning.  Only a slight increase of a few inches over yesterday's forecast.

At lake level, we go from snow to rain to snow.  The timing of that makes the forecast tricky, but 1-2 feet are possible based on the latest model runs.

Storm Totals:

The European and GFS models are identical this morning which doesn't happen often, especially 2-3 days out.  Both have up to 5.7 inches of total precip near the crest, and up to 3.6 inches for the east side of the lake by Friday morning.  The total model average is around 4.8 inches near the crest.  Here is a look at the total precip forecast on the WPC model showing around 5 inches.

So the total snowfall by Friday on the mountains, based on the latest model runs, is expected to be in the 2.5 - 5.5 feet range from east to west across the lake.

High pressure builds in over the West Coast Friday into Saturday bringing a return of nice weather.

You can see the next trough approaching the coast for Sunday, but it will encounter the ridge over the area and weaken.  The latest model runs still show a few inches of snow possible Sunday night so we will keep an eye on it.

Then high pressure builds in along the West Coast with a dry pattern expected through the last week of January. 

There are a few signs on the long-range ensemble runs that the ridge could shift towards the Gulf of Alaska going towards the beginning of February, possibly allowing storms to push under the ridge into CA.

Stay tuned...BA

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