Storm Report:

Wow, some of the bands of snow that set up yesterday really hammered some of the mountains on the west side of the lake.  It's another day of deep fresh powder.  What an amazing month so far.

We picked up double to triple the forecast over the past 24-hrs as the snow outperformed the models.  4-7 inches was the forecast for the east side of the lake, and we have reports of 6-15 inches.  6-10 inches was the forecast for the west side of the lake, and we have reports of 15-30 inches.  The wettest model run yesterday morning only had enough precip for up to 20 inches on the crest.

The storm totals are now up to 4-8+ feet of snow with one more day to go.  The totals for February are now at 14-21+ feet of snow and counting.  Going back to 1970 for Alpine Meadows the biggest month I can find is 202" in March of 2011.  We are past that now.  Many of the ski resorts are now past their seasonal averages, and we are at 161% of average for the date.

I added the YTD numbers for the big 2016-17 & 2010-11 seasons to the chart.  10/11 didn't get big until the 2nd half of February & beyond so I'll keep that on there as we go.  Those were both 160% of average snowfall seasons.

Snow Continues Sunday:

The next wave moved in early this morning bringing back the snow.

The snow showers will continue through the day and should become more scattered by afternoon.  Then we finally clear out tonight.  The ridgetop winds are gusting to 40+ mph which is much lighter than they have been the last several days.  They should come down more this afternoon.

Some of the latest model runs have come in wetter for today.  Some runs still show a low end of 3 inches, but some runs now show up to 10 inches of snow southwest of the lake near Sierra and Kirkwood.  I have 3-7 inches as the forecast for today, but I did bump up the forecast SW of the lake up to 10 inches.

Cold Week Ahead, with More Snow Possible:

Behind the storm, the cold trough remains over the West through the week.  Highs only in the 20's and lows in the teens and single digits.  

We should see the sun on Monday and Tuesday and the winds should be light.  Great skiing weather.

The next system drops down from the north Wednesday-Thursday.  There are slight timing differences on the models with the GFS showing snow Wednesday-Wednesday night, and the European model showing Wednesday night into Thursday. 

Either way, this system is dropping down over land instead of down the coast like the last few storms, so it is moisture starved.  Snow levels are very low again possibly dropping to sea level again Wednesday night.  Expecting very light and powdery snow with maybe 3-6 inches accumulating with this system based on the latest model runs.

Then we should have cold and dry weather again Friday into Saturday.

The forecast is starting to become a little more complicated for next Sunday into Monday.  The forecast models were suggesting the next system dropping down from the north didn't push this far south.  Then now show it possibly dropping further south brushing us with light snow again next Sunday into Monday.  

But the other issue is that some model runs are showing some moisture possibly streaming into CA under the ridge off the coast by Monday, and getting pulled into this system.  The latest GFS run shows heavier snow possible Monday.  The European model runs have been showing the colder system stalling to our north, and then the warmer system coming under the ridge off the coast into CA on Monday the 25th.

So we will have to keep watching to see what happens with the possible undercutting as we get closer.  If we don't see that, then we could just get brushed with light snow or no snow next Sunday.

Fantasy Range:

We call the forecast beyond 10 days fantasy range because the forecast models lose so much accuracy that far out. 

It still appears that we could see a brief period of high-pressure building in over the West Coast the week of the 25th bringing a drier and milder pattern.

Notice the strong high-pressure ridge over Alaska.  The models are showing a possible flip to a negative EPO pattern that week.  That could allow the jet stream to break underneath the ridge into CA by the weekend of the 2nd.

Going through the first week of March we could see the ridge shift west with the trough returning to the West Coast.  Overall, it looks like any dry pattern the last week of the month could be short-lived and storms could return the first week of March.  

Stay tuned...BA

If you are traveling through the Sierra please use the links below for travel advisories as we do not give our opinions for the "safest" or "best" travel times for liability reasons.  You can also follow our I-80 Daily Snow forecast as well.

NWS Reno: https://www.weather.gov/rev/
NWS Sacramento: https://www.weather.gov/sto/
CA road conditions: http://www.dot.ca.gov/cgi-b... (and 1-800-427-7623)
NV road conditions: https://nvroads.com/
OSS weather share: http://oss.weathershare.org/#