Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 4 years ago December 7, 2019

Rain & Snow Continue Saturday into Sunday with Falling Snow Levels...

Summary

- Rain & snow showers continue Saturday with snow levels starting out in the 7500-8000' range and falling to around 7000-7500' by midday. Then heavier precipitation moves in later Saturday afternoon into the evening with snow levels falling below lake level by late evening. The snow becomes light into Sunday morning before ending by afternoon. Ridgetop winds of 70+ mph Saturday dropping to 30+ Sunday. 3-9 inches of snow possible at lake level by Sunday morning, and 9-25 inches on the mountains above 7k. - Monday and Tuesday look drier with some sun and highs in the 40s. A weak system moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could bring a few scattered snow showers. Then drier again Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with highs in the 40s. - Another storm could come close to Tahoe Friday into next Saturday bringing a chance for more rain and snow.

Short Term Forecast

Storm Update:

The storm started to push in right as expected around 8 p.m. Friday evening. We saw rain and snow spread across the Tahoe Basin overnight. The showers have become more scattered this morning.

radar

Snow levels started as low as 6,000 feet in some spots as the drier air in place to start created some evaporational cooling. Then as the humidity rose and the air became full saturated overnight the snow levels rose, and look to be around 7500' - 8000' early this morning with the lull in heavy precipitation.

temps

Overnight we were expected 1-6 inches of snow for the upper mountains. Reports this morning by the ski resorts of 2-10 inches overnight. Here is a look at the boot cam at Sugar Bowl this morning showing 6 inches of new snow.

the boot

Alpine Meadows reported 3 inches of wet snow at the base down around 7000 feet. So we had some accumulations from 7k up overnight. Here are the rest of the reports for the upper mountains overnight.

snowfall reports

The Rest of the Storm:

The forecast models are showing snow levels peaking out this morning, then slowly falling through the day into Saturday night. We were expecting snow levels to be up around 7200' this morning, so they are running higher than expected this morning. The showers remain scattered into the early afternoon with some spots seeing nothing while others get heavier bands of rain/snow. The models show snow levels dropping into the 6500 - 7000 ft. range this afternoon.

Later this afternoon through this evening we are expecting a round of heavier precipitation as well as a cold front to move through. You can see a leaf forming off the coast that will be associated with the heavy precipitation this evening.

satellite

Snow levels will drop this evening. The forecast models show snow levels around 6500' by 4 p.m. and then below 6000' by 10 p.m., so snow levels may drop near lake level in the 5-8 p.m. time frame. This will be helped by heavy precipitation pushing in, so we will have to watch what happens. At some point by later this evening, it is all snow for the Tahoe Basin into Sunday morning.

Then snow showers Sunday morning tapering off by afternoon. The best shot of lingering snow showers being west of the lake along the crest.

Additional Precipitation:

The models are slightly wetter for the rest of the storm. We have been expecting most of the precipitation with this storm to fall from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Looking at the latest forecast model runs, they still show 2-3 more inches of total precipitation near the crest by Sunday afternoon starting at 4 a.m. this morning.

wpc

The total model average of the deterministic models is around 2.3 inches, which is similar to the GFS/Euro average.

Additional Snowfall:

I'm making an assumption on the snowfall forecast that it is all rain at lake level today and turns to snow at 7k this afternoon. Then turning to snow at lake level this evening. Taking the GFS/Euro precip average for the rest of the storm, here is the updated snowfall forecast for the rest of the storm by Sunday afternoon.

new forecast

We are already ahead of pace at several ski resorts, so the final forecast for storm total put out yesterday morning looks to be on track still.

Winds:

Looking at the sensor at the top of Squaw, it recorded a gust of 109 mph early this morning. The winds are still gusting to 70+ mph and that should continue throughout the day. That should close some of the upper mountain lifts. Then on Sunday morning we still have gusts to 40+ mph, lowering to 30+ mph in the afternoon before becoming much lighter Sunday night.

winds

Next Week:

High pressure builds in over CA by Monday with much quieter weather expected through Thursday. We should see the sun all 4 days with highs into the 40s and lows in the 20s with inversions.

ridge

There is a weak system that is falling apart as it moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. If any moisture does make it into the Tahoe Basin, we could see a few scattered snow showers but no big deal.

Extended Forecast

Friday into next Saturday there is a storm moving into the Pacific NW with another AR pointed briefly at northern CA.  The forecast models were keeping any precipitation chances to our north. The European model still does, but the GFS and Canadian models this morning are showing a chance that the precipitation pushes farther south into the Tahoe Basin.

storm next weekend

It is still 6-7 days away, but we will keep an eye on it all week. 

Overall it is not a great pattern for storms through mid-month. The long-range models continue to suggest a pattern change going through the 3rd week of December that may set up a better pattern for storms into the last week of December.

trough

Reading the CPC's (climate prediction center's) long-range outlook yesterday, they also suggest that we could see a stormier pattern for CA around Christmas week. This is out in fantasy range though.

Stay tuned...BA

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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