The weather for Sunday is expected to be similar to Saturday. High clouds streaming in off the Pacific and mild temperatures, with light winds.

Partly sunny skies. I think there is a thin line between partly sunny and mostly cloudy. Not sure the exact percentage of sun vs clouds to forecast between the two... We had good inversions overnight. Temperatures were in the 20s at lake level this morning and 30s for the upper elevations. That will help the temperatures to warm into the 40s today for most elevations.

The upper elevation winds pick up a little overnight into Monday gusting from the south to 30+ mph. That will help to mix the air and limit inversions. It may be a little cooler for Monday in the upper elevations. But similar weather expected with high clouds and lighter winds. Highs in the 40s at lake level and 30s for the upper elevations.

For those of us with local passes that are blacked out this weekend, it has been a good weekend to get some yard work done. I spent the day yesterday helping a friend clear brush from their yard and planning on yardwork of my own today...

Tuesday's Weak Storm:

Here we go again with another weak system for Tuesday where we catch the southern end of a weakening storm pushing into the West coast.

The latest model runs are in decent agreement that light snow could push in between 7-10 AM from north to south across the Tahoe basin on Tuesday and ending from just after midnight Tuesday night into the early morning hours.

This storm is going to be more average for temperatures, snow levels, and snow ratios. Snow levels may be in the 5500-6000 ft. range, even a bit higher possibly during lighter precip. That means we could see some drizzle in Truckee or near lake level, but expecting mostly snow to lake level during bands of snow showers. Highs in the 30s.

The forecast models continued the drying pattern the past 24 hours for total precipitation but slowed quite a bit. It was interesting again this morning with most of the models showing 0.25-0.35 inches of total precip along the crest, and then when I got to the European model it showed only 0.2 inches and the GFS showed 0.55 inches. So the GFS is still wetter than the other models but continuing to trend drier. The total model average is 0.32 inches near the crest with up to 0.2 to the east side of the lake.

It looks like the precipitation amounts up to 3 tenths could reach down to Bear Valley, and possibly Dodge Ridge, but fade fast south of that. So I'd lean to the lower side of the forecast to the south, with Mammoth looking lucky to pick up an inch of snow. Here is the updated snowfall forecast. I basically just shaved 1 inch off of the crest forecast.

The snow ratios on the mountains look to be around 10-12:1 on the mountains. A more typical Sierra snow quality. Winds Tuesday are forecast to be gusting to 80+ mph over the ridges. Likely closing some upper elevation lifts for the day.

Wednesday - Saturday:

A weak area of high pressure is still forecast to build in over CA Wednesday through Saturday. A "dirty" ridge as we like to call it as we usually see clouds, some wind, and sometimes some sprinkles from the storms moving through just to the north.

I would expect weather similar to this weekend with partly sunny skies and mildish temperatures. Highs in the 30s for the upper elevations and 40s for lake level.

Sunday Storm:

It is a week out, but the models are still showing the next chance of a storm to be next Sunday. The setup looks similar to the pattern we have been seeing the last few weeks. We could get the southern end of a system that is weakening as it pushes south into CA.

The long-range models continue to show a ridge building off the coast for the end of the month into February, bumping the storm track to our north.

 

We have not been completely trusting of this pattern with the active phase of the MJO moving through the Pacific. Most models show it dying out, with a few showing it continuing through the Pacific. No storms showing up yet on the long-range models, but what is interesting is the new week 2 forecast from the CPC.

That does not line up with the ensemble runs showing a ridge sitting off the West Coast. So they are wary of the long-range models as well. The CFSv2 was showing a wet CA a few days ago but has gone back to a below-average precip forecast. So all we can do is wait to see the trend as we get closer. For now, it looks like we have 2 more weak systems over the next week.

Stay tuned...BA

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