The forecast for the next 10 days is one of the most active I can remember for October since 2016. There is a lot going on and a busy week ahead working through the details of each storm.

Sunday Storm:

The first system is moving into the West Coast this morning.

We have high clouds moving in this morning that will increase later in the day. The big story during the day will be the increasing winds. Lake level gusts to 40+ mph and up to 100+ mph over the ridgetops by evening. Highs in the 50s at lake level.

The cold front and associated precipitation push in during the evening. The latest model runs show the rain & snow moving in between 7-11 PM. Here is a look at our forecast radar map that shows precipitation reaching the crest by 8 PM and pushing across the lake by 10 PM.

Snow levels should drop to 7000 ft. pretty quickly with the onset of the precipitation. Then dropping below lake level by 10-11 PM. We will see accumulating snow over the passes after sunset so be prepared or travel before then.

Snow showers could continue behind the front with rising snow ratios and lower snow levels. Snow levels could bottom out below 4000 ft. by Monday morning as the system clears out. Total precipitation amounts on the latest model runs of 0.5-0.7 west of the lake along the crest with up to 0.3 inches on the east side of the lake.

That would be enough for 1-3" of snow at lake level, 2-4 inches of snow above 7000 ft. on the east side of the lake, and 4-8" on the west side. Highest amounts above 8000 ft. along the crest from Sugar Bowl down to Sierra at Tahoe. That would be enough to get us close to hitting the October snowfall average already, with the bigger storms still on the way...

Monday-Tuesday:

Monday will be cold with highs in the 30s, and we may not break 40 at lake level. Skies will clear and winds will drop off. It will be a chilly day with nice views of the white mountains making it start to feel like early winter.

Tuesday we should see mostly sunny skies and highs back into the 50s at lake level. Winds start to increase again Tuesday night ahead of the next system.

Wednesday System:

The next trough digs down off the West Coast by Wednesday but is centered off the coast.

The next system spinning up is well to our north but the latest model runs have been trending farther south with the light precipitation into CA.

We should see gusty winds with ridgetop winds up to 80+ mph Wednesday morning and then coming down some through the afternoon. We will be on the warm side of the moisture streaming into the West Coast. Snow levels should stay above 9000 ft. We may just see scattered light rain showers with highs in the 40s.

Thursday we may clear out some with a break before the next system moves in. Highs in the 50s at lake level. Winds should be lighter but could increase again by Thursday night ahead of the next storm.

Friday Storm:

The storms just keep coming, we could see up to 6 storms over the next 9 days.  The trough is forecast to be centered farther east over the West Coast by Friday through early the following week.

That will allow storms to push heavier precipitation farther south with time. Each of these systems look to tap into quite a bit of moisture with small ARs associated with them, but that will have to hold together as the system moves south into CA for us to get heavier rain and snow.

The next system is lined up to push into northern CA Friday. This is yet another storm this week that is trending farther south and east with the precipitation. Early model runs kept the moisture west of the Sierra Friday, but the latest model runs now push light-moderate precip into the northern Sierra Friday.

Snow levels look to be high again, above 9000 ft. Friday morning but then falling close to 7000 ft. later Friday afternoon. We will have to continue to watch the trends with this system all week to get a better idea of snow levels and possible snowfall amounts.

The next system could move through Saturday...

Right now this one looks pretty weak as well. The long-range models have snow levels around 7000 ft. Saturday and falling to lake level Saturday night. So maybe some light snow on the mountains if this system is able to push into the northern/central Sierra.

Stronger Systems:

Things look a little more interesting by next Sunday into the following week. The long-range models continue to show wetter systems next Sunday...

... and Tuesday the 26th, with another storm possible before the end of the month. These systems could push farther south with the ARs (atmospheric rivers) associated with them holding together into northern and central CA.

If the forecasts continue to hold and we see storms like the models have been showing, these storms could drop inches of total precipitation vs tenths of an inch like we are seeing with storms this week. The GFS & European models both show up to 5 inches of liquid near the crest over the next 9 days.

Snow levels could fluctuate with these storms, but the upper mountains could pick up quite a bit of snow. The last time we saw over 2 feet of snow on the Donner Summit in October was in 2012. We will be watching these storms closely all week as they get closer.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models show the possibility of another storm or two before the end of the month. The trend is for the trough to shift off the coast with a ridge building over the West Coast around the end of the month.

That could bring us a quieter pattern to start November. Lots of fun possible before then...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. I'll be traveling Mon-Wed so I'm not sure when/if I will be able to post updates. Back in the saddle Thursday before things could get more exciting next weekend.

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