Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 9 years ago December 20, 2014

Blown Up...

Summary:

We will see rain and snow showers today from a system to our North.  Snow levels starting near lake level early this morning will rise through the day to around 8000 ft.  Tonight the showers taper off as a ridge builds along the coast and mild air moves in.  That will bring dry conditions with temperatures in the 40's through Wednesday, and even near 50 at lake level by Tuesday.  A cold front will push through Christmas Eve into Christmas day bringing colder air and the chance for some light snow. 

 

 

Details:

The cold front that moved through yesterday brought heavier snow across the basin than expected.  Totals being reported as of 6 a.m. this morning are 5-7 inches up top on the mountains on the North and East sides of the lake, and 10-12 inches West of the lake down the crest.  That's about double what the forecast was.  See, forecasts are blown on the upside sometimes not just the downside.  Here is a look at the past week, month, and season for the resorts up top.

totals

A strong storm is moving into the Pacific NW.  The heavier precip is pushing a little further South than expected this morning.  The "light" showers forecasted yesterday are moderate to heavy around the basin early this morning.  Snow levels are around 6000 ft. North of the lake and 6300 ft. South of the lake as of 6 a.m.  The showers are expected to continue today with snow levels rising as warm air moves in on the South side of the storm to our North.  They could rise to around 7000 ft. by mid-day and 8000 ft. by this afternoon before the precip tapers off.  Tonight snow levels will push even higher but we should begin to dry out as the ridge builds in.

The precip forecast for today is still light so not expected much more than a few additional inches on the mountains.

hpc

The ridge builds along the West Coast through Tuesday bringing dry conditions and mild temps.  We should see inversions setting up as well so snow making will be limited as well.

By Wednesday the ridge position is shifting North and West as a cold system moving into the Pacific NW.  The GFS is keeping the system well to our North and slides it down over the Rockies with just some colder air moving in.  The Canadian model is further South and West, but still keeps most of the precip to our North and East.  The European model continues to dig the storms further South and West bringing us a shot of snow along with colder air Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.  For now it looks like we will see colder air moving in with highs only in the 30's by Christmas Day, with a chance for a light snowfall.

Long-Range:

When you see a lot of flipping around on the models with the pattern in the long-range like we are seeing, it usually means a big pattern change is coming.  The question in the long range looks to be where will the ridge setup in the Northeast Pacific.  Over Alaska and we could see a coast to coast trough over the country with cold air for much of the country and storms moving under the ridge into the West Coast.  If the ridge sets up further South in the Gulf of Alaska and closer the West Coast, we could just see shots of cold air with no significant snow through the first week of January.  Right now the models are leaning towards the latter.  

The CFSv2 has us with below average precip the first 2 weeks of January and then above average mid-January through March.  Hopefully just a small delay and not the usual kicking of the can down the road like the last few Winters.  

Stay tuned....BA

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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