Summary:

High pressure and dry weather will dominate through the next week.  There is a chance that we see some colder air move in from the Northeast next weekend.  Week 2 we may continue to see retrogression of the ridge with colder and snowier weather returning...maybe....

 

Details:

Just sitting and waiting for a change in the pattern.  The theme of the last few years....  All of the models are still in agreement that the ridge is going to very slowly retrograde West into the Pacific over the next couple of weeks.  

This week the weather will stay mild.  Next weekend the ridge should retrograde offshore allowing a cold trough to dig into the West over the Rockies.  The European forecast model runs try to push the cold far enough West into the Eastern Sierra.  Some runs look like a back door cold front coming from the Northeast.  So maybe a little change in the weather next weekend.

The retrogression will continue and maybe speed up by the 25th.  That may allow colder troughs to dig down the West Coast over time, and eventually as they dig further West we could start to see some cold storms the last week of the month.  We have not seen a pattern like the models are touting all Winter.  We have seen dry or we have seen a strong jet stream punching through the ridge.  To have the ridge North of Hawaii where the trough has been and the trough over the West where the ridge has been would be a complete flip of the pattern, and one that could bring cold storms.  All we can do over the next week is keep watching and hope the retrogression of the ridge Westward continues over time.

I am liking the signs that the PNA may tank at the end of the month...

The MJO forecasts try to bring back the convection in the Western Hemisphere towards the end of the month moving towards the Indian Ocean.  That would be a good sign as well.  

For now this is all hocus pocus in our eyes until it gets closer and verifies.  At least we are not hoping for the jet to undercut or punch through the ridge this time.  

Stay tuned....BA