Summary:

Lots of Sun through Thursday with highs in the 40's this weekend and then the 50's next week.  We may see a weak storm push in light snow and colder air Friday-Saturday.  Then we may have another break to start week 2, with another weak storm possible around the 17th.

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Details:

No change to the forecast with the high pressure ridge building over the West this week keeping us dry.  

The ridge may begin to weaken next weekend as a weak storm tries to push in by Friday.  The forecast models are still split on whether or not light snow will reach the Sierras.  I have added a few inches of snow to the resort forecast pages per the latest GFS.  

If anything this system will at least bring in some cooler air for next weekend.  It will be hard for much precip to push in with the ridge over the West.

Long-Range:

It looks like a weaker ridge will build over the West Coast next Sunday into the following week.  Then we could see another storm try to push into the West Coast around Wednesday the 17th.  This one would have to deal with the ridge as well.  

Then the long-range ensembles show a stronger ridge building back in into the weekend of the 20th.

There are signs of some changes in the long-range as the teleconnection pattern forecasts are starting to show signs of flipping after the 17th.  The MJO is also starting to wake up and become more active over the Maritime Continent with signs of moving East towards the Pacific later in the month.  The climate models are showing increased chances for precip the last week of the month.

When they really start to show changes is March.  The CFSv2 has been showing a wet March since the Fall.  Here is a look at the blend of the forecasts for March over the last 7 days showing above average precip still.

The first week of March it has very heavy precip.  

You always need to take these long-range forecasts with a grain of salt as historically they are no the most accurate.  But they can give an idea of when a possible pattern change may be coming.

We may finally see a true El Nino pattern with the jet stream aimed at CA by the end of the month and into March.  Until then we have a couple weeks of drier weather with a couple of weak storms trying to interrupt.

Stay tuned for Part II of the Winter story that may be coming...BA