Summary:

Lots of sun and highs in the 50's will continue through next Tuesday.  Then clouds and winds should increase Wednesday ahead of a storm that should push in precip by Wednesday night into Thursday.  Snow levels will fall and we could see several inches of snow across the basin.  Another storm may push in next weekend but it may track just to our North.  We could see more storms the following week, but the timing and intensity will have to be tracked.

Details:

Not much change to the forecast from the past week.  The mild weather and sun will continue through the weekend and into next week.

The ridge will weaken and shift East by Wednesday allowing a trough to push into the West Coast for the 2nd half of next week.

The forecast models are coming into better agreement on what will happen with the next storm for next Wednesday into Thursday.  The latest model runs show precip pushing in Wednesday night into Thursday with snow levels falling below lake level.  The total precip amounts aren't overly impressive, but current model runs show up to half an inch on the East side of the lake and over an inch on the West side.

Here is the latest GFS model run.

It is still a little early to look at snowfall amounts.  Tomorrow we will be within the 5 day window.  The European and GFS models bring in similar total precip amounts by Thursday evening.  So right now 3-6 inches at lake level looks like a good starting point, and 6-16 inches on the mountains.  The heaviest snow will fall on the West side of the lake along the crest.

There is another storm behind this one for next Saturday but most model runs keep the precip just to our North.

Long-Range:

It still looks like the ridge will rebuild along the West Coast next Sunday but this time further North up into Western Canada.  The GFS show storms pushing into CA underneath starting Tuesday the 23rd, with a couple of systems pushing in that week.  The European model runs show a break the first half of the week of the 22nd, and then the jet stream breaking under the ridge into CA with storms by the end of the week.

So it looks like we will start to see some changes to the pattern the week of the 22nd, a better chance as we get towards the end of the month.  We will keep watching to see of the storm can break under the ridge into CA the end of the month into March.  The MJO is still forecast to strengthen and move into the Western Pacific over the next 2 weeks which may help to setup this pattern by the end of the month.

Until then we will track down the storm for next Thursday to see if we can pick up a fresh foot of snow on the mountains.

Stay tuned...BA