Watching the clouds roll in over the mountains this morning out the window as I work.  Was planning on a family ski day but colds have the kids resting.  So I am sitting here and trying to nail down this next storm series.  I always enjoy checking the automated forecast on my phone and seeing this...

It appears that the GFS is playing catch-up this morning with the European model.  It has trended wetter for tomorrow and drier for Friday.  That puts the models in almost perfect agreement this morning for precip totals through Friday night, and more confidence in the forecast.

Thursday is a very fast moving storm.  Most of the precip looks to fall in 12 hours between 4 a.m. and 4 p.m.  Snow levels are still high at 4 a.m. but look to fall to lake level before midday.  Winds look pretty strong for Thursday so there will likely be lift issue.  Here is the GFS total precip forecast for Thursday.

We could see up to half an inch on the East side of the lake, and up to 8 tenths on the West side.  Here is the updated snowfall forecast which has come up a few inches for the mountains.

Thursday night we should see a break in the snowfall into Friday morning.  The next storm is still expected to move in to our South, but enough moisture will push North to bring a light-moderate snowfall event starting Friday afternoon.  The snow should taper off by Saturday morning.  With the center of the storm and jet stream to our South the wind gusts don't look nearly as strong as Thursday, with gusts only to 40 mph up top.

Here is the GFS update precip forecast by Saturday morning.

and the updated snowfall forecast for each 12 hour period...

Here is the total forecast by Saturday morning...  Slightly lower than yesterday because of the GFS coming in drier with the Friday storm.

Here is the snow ratio forecast for the period.

Saturday and Sunday we should see a break in the heavy precip.  Clouds may hang around through the weekend with scattered showers.  Mainly expecting light showers near the crest and a break for the rest of the basin.  Not expecting more than an additional inch or two on the mountains through the weekend at best.  Winds look to be breezy with mountain top gusts around 30-40 mph.  Should be a decent weekend for skiing.

Sunday night the next storm begins to move in as a prolonged snowfall period begins.  The biggest change this morning is the possibility for snow levels to rise to around 7000 feet Monday as moisture from the first storm begins to surge into CA ahead of a cold front.  Winds should become quite strong Sunday night into Monday, so expect lift closures Monday.

The forecast models are quite wet for Sunday night through Monday night with 2-3 inches of liquid near the crest.  Snow levels should fall below lake level by Monday night if they do rise.  My forecast has wet snow for lake level Monday, but may need to adjust it as we get a better idea.  For the mountains this should be an all snow event above 7000 feet.

Here is the GFS total precip forecast updated for Tuesday morning.  You can see the heavier precip NW of the lake with this storm.  The European model pushes that closer to the NW corner of the lake.  So we may see higher snowfall totals near Donner Summit compared to the rest of the Tahoe basin.

Here is the snowfall forecast by 12 hour period.

Added up it looks like this...  Again, the highest amounts may be NW of the lake and lower end SW and East.

That is the forecast for the next 5 days which is where I end my detailed snowfall forecasts.  You can see my 10 day mountain forecasts on the mountain pages.  The storms are expected to continue with another wave Tuesday and a 3rd Wednesday with snow levels continuing to fall well below lake level.  We could see an additional 1-2+ feet across the Tahoe basin Tuesday through Wednesday night before the storms end.

Here is the GFS 10 day total precip forecast with the last few days added in.  The European model is even wetter.  So we could see 5-7 additional inches of precipitation over the next week which will add to the already record setting pace for total precip for the season.

It still looks like we could see a break next Thursday as the pattern begins to change.  We may see a ridge begin to build off the coast.  That may help push a cold front down from the North next Friday over the West with light snow with the front for us.

Then high pressure may build in over the West Coast for next weekend with another nice weekend for skiing.

The ridge may sit over the area bringing a prolonged period of dry weather starting next weekend into the week of the 27th and into the beginning of March.  

The forecast is showing the Eastern Pacific Oscillation EPO pattern going negative the first week of March.  We have seen that almost everytime we get an undercutting warm atmospheric river pattern this season.  You can see the ridge starting to build near Alaska above.  We will have to see if the jet stream can cut under the ridge again.  As we get into the March the pattern starts to change as the atmosphere warms overall in the Norther hemisphere, with shorter wavelengths developing.

Stay tuned...BA

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.

*The snowfall forecasts on the ski resort pages are for the upper mountains at 8000'.