We had a good idea yesterday evening that the snowfall numbers would be on track with big amounts yesterday and last night.  The 6 a.m. 24 hour reports this morning showed 1-3 feet of new snow on the mountains, and 5 day totals of 3-5+ feet.

You can see that the taller resorts of Heavenly and Mt. Rose were the winners with the higher elevations and high snow ratios during the warmer part of the storm.  You can also see that Sugar Bowl and Mt. Rose have now broken 600 inches, in February!

Looking at some comparisons the 2010-11 season that brought 810 inches to Squaw had 398 as of this date, and as of today we are already at 539 inches.  So the pace is running close to record setting.  I'm not sure the pace of 1951-52, but that season had 800 inches on Donner Summit.  2011 only had 600 inches.  So I'm assuming Squaw summit that season would have had close to 1000 inches.  So if we are pacing at 141 inches ahead of 2010-11 we may still be pacing behind that season.

Also, this is nowhere near the record for snowfall yet.  Like I mentioned above, Squaw only has 539 inches so far and 810 in 2010-11 and maybe close to 1000 in 1952.  At the official measuring site at the Central Sierra Snow Lab on Donner Summit we are probably in the 400's, I will have the final totals next week for February.  Like I mentioned above the 2010-11 was 600 inches and the record in 1952 was 800 inches.  So we are not anywhere near a snowfall record officially yet.  But the pace is probably top 3 all-time.

The total precipitation rate and total amount is on record pace when you add in the rain with the snowfall.  We are only 13 inches away from the record as of this morning for the Northern Sierra 8 Station index, and that record is for the entire water year through September.  I will have all the totals a comparisons the first week of March.

The snow showers continue to fire this evening with some heavy bands over the Tahoe basin.

The snow showers should continue overnight, but the forecast models continue to show them tapering off pretty quickly by morning.  Here is the updated forecast for tonight.

Looking at the radar these amounts may be a little light if the heavy bands don't break up soon.  It looks like we are on track with the original forecast from before the storm I put out on Sunday.  We will have the totals to compare in tomorrow's post.

A cold airmass settles in tomorrow and into the weekend with highs only in the 20's.  I talked about the storm for the weekend yesterday and that the forecast models had jumped all over a big storm in one run yesterday.  I didn't want to talk specifics until we looked at more runs.  For good reason because the models are changing and out of sync this evening.

The GFS still shows the low dropping down the coast merging with a low moving East across the Pacific off the CA coast Saturday.  The moving inland with snow starting Saturday night and lasting into Monday.  The overall totals are less on the latest runs however.  The European model has the low from the North dropping down off the coast missing us Saturday, and then the low moving across the Pacific moving into Southern CA missing us.  But it has another low from the North bringing snow Sunday night into Monday.

So we still are not sure the track of these lows for the weekend.  The slightest track adjustment makes all the difference on how much moisture is drawn into the cold airmass.  The snow ratios are high through the weekend with the cold air, so any snow would be very powdery.

Taking the latest average of the model runs here is the initial possible snowfall forecast for the weekend.

We will be watching this develop the next few days...

The GFS ensemble runs show the ridge pushing in closer to the coast by next Tuesday with a prolonged dry spell.  By the 2nd week of March the ridge is sitting over the West Coast.

The European and Canadian ensemble runs show the ridge further off the coast next week with the cold air sticking around, and another cold low possibly dropping down from the North around the 3rd.  They do a show a possible drier pattern by the 2nd week of March like the GFS.

So will this weekend be the last big snow for a while?  If it doesn't come together today could be the last for a while.  Who knows in this crazy season...

Stay tuned...BA

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.

*The snowfall forecasts on the ski resort pages are for the upper mountains at 8000'.