The storm is finally over and we picked up significant snowfall as expected.  The 6 a.m. 24 hour reports this morning from the ski resorts had an additional 1-2 feet added in from Tuesday and Tuesday night.  6 day storm totals ended up at 4-7 feet.  I think Jonny Moseley was tweeting me last Friday asking if I was seriously forecasting up to 7 more feet this week.  Yes Jonny, there's your 7 feet!

We are now around 60% of the way through the ski season, with an average of 130% of the seasonal snowfall averages across the ski resorts!

My forecast from Sunday for this final 3 day storm is below and compared to the actual totals for the last 3 days.  We came in pretty close on the West side of the lake.  The East side came in much higher as the higher mountains picked up more than expected when we saw the lower snow levels Monday, and more spillover than the models were showing.

So this storm series did pretty much exactly what we were expecting.  It buried an already buried Tahoe.  It was nice to get the heavy snowfall at lake level to replace what was lost in the rains last week.  Here is a look at the Cal Lodge on Donner Summit this morning.  It is a 2 story building that now only has the roof sticking out of the snow.

We will have the final February snowfall and rainfall numbers next week.  We do have the Northern Sierra average update today after the storm.  Only 12 inches shy of the wettest year!

The new snowpack number is 193% of average today.  So plenty of snow and plenty of water so far this year!  The drought continues to get busted in CA.

There is an upper disturbance moving through tonight with light snow showers.  The snow showers have been firing up more than expected yesterday.  So I have upped the snowfall forecast for this evening through tonight.

Not much but a little bit more.  Then cold and sunny for Thursday and Friday.  Beautiful skiing weather.  

We do have some big changes today for the weekend storms.  I had been warning the last couple of days that the track of the lows moving down from the North can shift slightly and greatly increase or decrease the snowfall.  Today they are a big decrease.  The GFS and European models are similar in showing a low moving down from the North Friday night bringing light snow showers into Saturday and Saturday evening.  

The last 2 days they showed the low dropping down off the coast and then merging with a low moving in across the Pacific and bringing in heavy snowfall Saturday night.  Now they have the low not merging and dropping down closer to us with light showers.  The low moving in off the Pacific moves through to our South.  Here is a look at the update forecast.

This is very light snowfall but cold and powdery.  We still have time for the forecast to change again before the weekend.  So we will keep watching.  They have a 2nd low spinning down from the North Sunday night but closer to the area with a quick shot of moderate snowfall.  Here is the forecast for Sunday night.

Here is a look at the GFS total precip forecast now with the drier forecast scenario for the weekend.  It is still cold though.

Of interest on the Canadian model is that it is further North with the storm coming in off the Pacific Saturday and brings about double the snowfall as compared to the other models.

But it is currently the outlier.   We'll see...

In the long-range starting next Tuesday it still appears that high pressure will build in for an extended period of dry weather.  Something we have not seen yet this Winter, but it is common to get a prolonged dry spell at some point every season.  

It looks like the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska helping to drive the colder trough into the West will shift Westward with time.  That will allow high pressure to build along the West Coast.  I'm not sure I will know what to do with myself after this marathon of snow...

Stay tuned...BA

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.

*The snowfall forecasts on the ski resort pages are for the upper mountains at 8000'.