Mostly sunny today with highs in the 50's and breezy up high with gusts to 35 mph. For the weekend cloudy with a chance for a few passing showers but not expecting much. Temperatures will cool into the 40's on the mountains to near 50 at lake level. Winds will gust to 60 mph up high Saturday and drop to around 40 mph on Sunday. Monday should be similar to Sunday and then Monday night the next storm starts to push in. We should see winds pick up again Monday night into Tuesday. We could see a few light showers Monday night with snow levels above 8000 feet. We could see a couple inches on the mountain tops. Tuesday the storm moves in with heavier precip. Snow levels start around 8000 feet and fall through the day to below lake level by evening. We could see 1-3 inches of snow at lake level, and 2-8 inches on the mountains. Highs will only be in the 30's. Tuesday night into Wednesday very light snow showers could linger as a weak wave follows the storm. Temperatures stay cold with highs in the 30's and lows in the 20's. We could see an additional inch or two at lake level, and a few more inches on the mountains. Wednesday night into Thursday night we expect a break between storms with highs remaining in the 30's. Then another storm may move in next Friday bringing several more inches of snow.
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Short Term Forecast
Today will be the last day of all sun and mild temps in the 50's for a while. Winds look to be down a bit from yesterday even though they are still gusting to around 35 mph up top. So it should be a beautiful day.
You most likely already know that we are about to have a pattern change back to Winter that will last through all of next week. Here is a look at the highs today.
and the highs by the middle of next week...
The cool down starts this weekend as storms move through to our North and fall apart by the time they reach us. Refer to the Summary for the winds, but we will see clouds and maybe a few stray showers Saturday and Sunday. It does look drier on the forecast today, so it may mostly just be cloudy.
The bigger drop in temps happens Tuesday as the storm rolls in. The forecast models are in good agreement this morning on timing on total precip amounts. We could see rain and snow move in during the early morning hours Tuesday and continue with the heaviest precip during the day Tuesday. Snow levels start above 8000 feet and fall below lake level by evening. So that will limit accumulations at the lake.
It looks like very light snow showers could linger into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves through behind the storm. We will have to watch with the daytime heating Wednesday to see if any convective heavier showers develop.
Here is a look at the total precip forecast on the GFS that is similar to the European model.
Here is the snow ratio forecast through Wednesday.
and here is the updated snowfall forecast for total snow by Wednesday morning... It is down a couple inches from yesterday.
It still looks like we will see a break Thursday but it stays cool. Then Friday the next storm may push in. It may start with lake level snow levels, so we may see more snow down low from this storm. Right now it's too early for snowfall details as it is outside the 5 day window,
The total precip amounts look to be slightly more than the first storm on the latest model runs, and we could start with lower snow levels. So by next Saturday morning we could see more snowfall with the 2nd storm than the first. We will have to keep tracking it down...
Here is the total precip forecast on the Canadian model by next weekend, which is similar to the amounts on the other models.
and here is the GFS total snowfall forecast for the period...
The week of the 27th the long-range runs of the ensembles shows the possibility of some weaker storms moving through. It will depend on how far off the coast the ridge sets up that week. Some runs have it closer to the coast with dry weather returning, and other further off the coast with weak storms sneaking in.
As we head into April the jet stream continues to weaken and retract North, so it gets a lot harder to get significant snow storms into the area. It's not impossible we do get Spring dumps, but it gets harder.
Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak
Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge
Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood
*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.
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