We have a storm moving in tonight. Only expecting light amounts of precip into the day on Monday with snow levels around 7000-7500 feet. High's Monday will be in the 40's. Winds could gust to 55 mph on the mountain tops. Monday night into Tuesday a slightly wetter system moves in. Snow levels may drop to around 7000 feet. We could see several inches of snow on the mountains above that. Temperatures on Tuesday will once again be in the 40's. Winds could gust to 40 mph on Tuesday. For Wednesday we have a break with some sun and lighter winds. Highs will climb into the 50's. Then on Thursday a very weak but colder storm moves through. We could see some light snow showers with highs dropping back into the 40's. Friday and into next weekend high pressure builds in. Temperatures could warm into the 60's next weekend. We could see another colder trough push in the week of the 24th, but some forecast models keep us dry but cooler.
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Short Term Forecast
Happy Easter to all of those celebrating! Conditions were great this weekend with sun, and big snowpack for this time of year. The skiing is really good. The snowpack is sitting at 188% of average for the date.
Not much change to the forecast over the last 48 hours. We have a weak system moving in this evening bringing some rain showers and higher elevation snow showers. Snow levels should hover in the 7000-7500 foot range through Monday.
Monday night into Tuesday is when we are expecting the wetter wave to move in off the Pacific. Monday night looks like the best chance for accumulating snowfall on the mountains. The total amount of precip is not that much and snow levels being around 7000 feet will keep the snow ratios on the lower side.
Here is the GFS total precip forecast.
Here is the updated snowfall forecast by Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for an accumulation of thick snow is above 7000 feet and on the West side of the lake.
We should see a nice day with sun Wednesday and then another system moves in for Thursday. This storm is colder, but very limited on moisture. We could see snow levels dip near lake level, but only expecting a coating to an inch of snow on the mountains right now.
Then Friday high pressure begins to build in off the coast and move closer to the coast. That will bring a drying and warming trend into next weekend. We should see Spring finally arrive with temperatures into the 60's!
The latest GFS model runs keep high pressure closer to the West coast the week of the 24th. That would keep us dry even though we may see some cooler temperatures. The GFS keeps us dry through the end of the month.
The latest European model runs show high pressure further away from the coast the week of the 24th with a trough dipping down the West Coast. That would bring the chance for colder air and some moisture.
We will have to keep watching to see what happens, but at least we get Spring next weekend!
Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak
Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge
Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood
*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.
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