Nice Fall weather continues this week. We warm up slightly on Tuesday and then cool off again the rest of the week with highs in the 50's at lake level. We may warm up again early next week but then we are watching for the possibility of a more significant storm that is showing up on the long-range models for later next week.
2017-18 Tahoe Super Pass
Short Term Forecast
I have been out enjoying the Fall weather all weekend. Saturday was beautiful and Sunday the winds picked up with some colder air moving in and it was starting to really feel like Fall.
It is a cold morning this morning with the colder air. Temperatures are dropping into the 20's at night so it won't be long before the ski resorts will be able to start making snow.
We will see some warmer temperatures briefly for Tuesday with highs possibly into the 60's ahead of the next cold front. There is a reinforcing shot of colder air coming down on Friday. We were watching to see if that trough could bring us some light snowfall, but the latest model runs keep the precip to our North now.
You can see the trough over the West Coast Wed-Fri on the latest GFS Ensemble Mean run.
Here is a look at the forecast for colder temperatures over the West for the 2nd half of the week.
Then by Sunday and into early next week the pattern changes as high pressure starts to build in...
and temperatures start to warm back near seasonal averages...
Where things started to get interesting over the weekend is later next week. The forecast models started to show the ridge setting up North of Hawaii with a large trough from the Gulf of Alaska down into the Eastern Pacific and Western North America. That would help to aim the jet stream someplace along the West Coast.
Yesterday the GFS was pretty bullish on the precip for Northern CA including the Tahoe area.
This morning the GFS has shifted the aim of the storms to our North.
The typical CA doughnut hole on the precip forecast....
The European model still digs the trough further South. Of course this is more than a week out so we don't even start talking details anytime soon. 10+ days out we just look at the models hinting at a possible pattern change that could open the storm door. For now we will enjoy the Fall weather with the up and down temperatures, and watch the snow falling in Colorado and Wyoming with jealousy.
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