Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 6 years ago November 16, 2017

The Forecasting Fun Begins...

Summary

Rain today with high elevation snow above 8,000 feet. Highs in the 30's. This evening snow levels should drop to lake level with lighter snow showers overnight. We could see 1-3 inches of snow down to lake level and several inches of snow on the mountains. For Friday we clear out but with colder air in place we may stay in the 30's for highs at all elevation. Then for the weekend milder air moves in bringing highs back into the 50's. We are still watching a storm approaching for Monday but the latest model runs keep most of the moisture to our North. Another storm for Thanksgiving could bring some rain and high elevation snow. Overall a milder week next week with highs into the 50's at lake level.

Short Term Forecast

I posted an update at 4 a.m. on what we saw from the storm the first 24 hours if you want to click back to read it on the link at the bottom of this post.  In summary, we saw heavy rain and high snow levels as expected yesterday.  Last night we saw snow levels 1,000-2,000 feet lower than expected with several inches of snow earlier than expected at 7,000-8,000 feet.  Then this morning the snow levels have shot back up above 8,000 feet back to where we thought they would be to start today.

You can see how much fun these warm storms are to forecast when the snow levels can be higher or lower than expected which an greatly affect the snowfall in really wet storms.  We did see snow levels drop below 8,000 feet last night on the South side of the lake and below 7,000 feet on the North side.  We even saw a coating of snow down to lake level in King's Beach! 

These snow levels were dragged lower with the heavy precip we saw overnight, and as soon as we saw a break in the heavier precip this morning the temps jumped fast.  Almost 8 degrees in less than an hour at the base of Alpine!

yip

Then you can see with another wave of heavy precip they started to fall and then back up again with another break.  So the snow levels overnight came down due to the very heavy precip, not colder air working into the area earlier than expected.  That is why I was cautious on the 4 a.m. update to believe the snowfall expectations increased above 8,000 feet just because it snowed below 7,000 feet.  Because it was not getting colder aloft and the snow ratios were not increasing.

It is important this morning looking out your window at rain to remember we were expecting all rain until tonight.  The snow overnight at lower elevations was unexpected and is now getting rained on.  I had been breaking the storm into 2 parts all week.  Part 1 the warm part, and Part 2 the colder part.  A couple days ago it looked like colder air could move in this morning beginning part 2, but yesterday morning we saw that the warm air would hang on until tonight.  So if you broke my final forecast for the storm issued yesterday morning down to the first 24 hours, here is the forecast.

part 1 final

See, we weren't even expecting any snow below 9,000 feet as of this morning.  I drove from Truckee to King's Beach then over to Incline and up to the top of Mt. Rose highway this morning at 6 a.m.  I saw snow once I hit 6,200 feet going past Northstar over Brockway Summit all the way over into lake level in King's Beach.  Then again starting around 6,400 feet going up Mt. Rose Highway.  Here is the snowfall breakdown I saw by elevation.

6500' - 1-3"

7000' - 3-6"

7500' - 6-9"

8000' - 9-12"

8500' - 12-15"

9000' - 15-20"

The lowest snowfall reports I have from the South side of the lake are down to 7400' overnight.

Snow levels were above 8,000 feet by 7 a.m. when I posted a live video on the TahoeWeather FaceBook page.  So below 8500 feet rain was melting down those accumulations and ever since this morning.  Now snow levels are near where we thought they would be this morning 8000-8500 feet.  

As we move through the day today colder air should finally start to work in as the cold front approaches.  We should see snow levels come down to 8,000 feet with the heavier precip bands, and stay there with colder air by this afternoon.  Then this evening between 4-10 p.m. the latest model runs show snow levels falling to lake level.  Behind the cold front the showers are lighter so only expecting light snowfall amounts tonight.

So here is the breakout of the 2nd half of the snowfall forecast from yesterday morning.

part du

and the total forecast by tomorrow morning... As I have mentioned before I added 9,000 feet to the forecasts upon reader request, even though it will be hard to verify over the season unless someone is hiking up above 9,000 feet to measure in a wind protected spot.

final

So as you can see above I didn't have snow starting to accumulate at 8k until today, and in some areas we have already hit today's forecast last night, and at 7k last night as well when I didn't have it snowing there until tonight.  Below are the resort reports this morning.

woot

You can see the effect that elevation has with the lower mountains getting half the snowfall, and the high mountains like Mt. Rose getting much more snow.  Mt. Rose measures around 8600'.  The South side is also lower because the snow levels have been running abouy 1,000 feet higher so far with the storm than the North side.  For the crest we need another 3-11 inches at 8k at the ski resorts to hit the forecast depending on the resort.  For the West side 12 inches, and for the East side we already hit the forecast (unless Heavenly is measuring that 11" at 9k, then they need 10 more).

It's still hard to say how much the lower snow levels last night will affect the total snowfall reports for the storm tomorrow.  Like I mentioned above the snow levels weren't lower due to colder air moving in, which is why the forecast earlier this week was higher at the lower elevations.  The snow ratios were very low even up high last night.  At 9k this morning on Mt. Rose I could almost walk on top of the snow it was so dense, and I weigh 200 lbs! 

With snow levels above 8k this morning I'm still sticking with yesterday morning final forecast for the storm for the comparison to totals reported tomorrow.  We know some elevations will come in over thanks to last night.  But with it melting today does it really still count as being over?  We will just attribute any overages to the unexpected lower snow levels last night.  Other than that I think the forecast is back to being on track this morning with 8k+ snow levels through today and falling tonight with the cold front.

Extended Forecast

Friday through the weekend we clear out with lots of sun.  It's only in the 30's on Friday and then warming through the weekend as milder air moves in.

The forecast models are still struggling with the Monday storm system.  If you have been reading all week you know I have not been impressed and thinking there was a chance the ridge would keep us dry all of next week.  The forecast models have trended that way today keeping the warm moisture feed to our North on Monday.  That is probably a good thing for conditions as we don't need a big rain storm on top of the snow that falls with this storm.

The GFS has a stronger ridge in place next week and greatly weakens a storm trying to move in for next Thu-Fri.  The European model has the trough closer to the West coast with some heavy precip moving in.  The storm looks warm at least to start.  So we will keep an eye on that.

The pattern may shift by the end of the month to a trough in the Northeast Pacific that may allow some colder storms to push South into Northern CA.

Stay tuned...BA

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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