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I wanted to throw up a quick post this morning and I'll do a full in detail post tomorrow morning.
The trend on the forecast models for the Wednesday storm is wetter. Snowfall for the mountains based off the latest runs would be in the 3-6 inch range. I'd like to see that trend continue today to gain confidence.
You may also be seeing the GFS become wetter in the long-range, especially on the new 12z run. Let's watch that trend for a day as well and see if the European model jumps on board before getting excited.
Overall the pattern of cold troughs from the North bringing shots of colder air every few days with seasonal temps in between may continue through Christmas. Then we will continue to watch the pattern for the last week of the month to see if we do get storms to break in like the GFS is showing this morning.
Overall I feel like the models have been performing well. We saw this 2 week dry spell 2 weeks out, and we saw the storm coming on Wednesday 2 weeks out. The pattern the last week of the month is harder with the chance of dry or wet, but either way we at least knew what was on the table as the pattern still looks to be the same as we have been expecting.
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