Not the title you were probably hoping for.  The NWS still has a Winter Storm Watch out for 1-2 feet of snow, but with the GFS falling in line with the other models on a drier trend I can't squeeze that much out of this storm.

If you are not running the forecast models at home, let me show you how different the runs can be for us run to run.  Here is a look at the 18z GFS 9 day precip forecast yesterday on top, and the 6z forecast last night on the bottom.

With that much variability you have to try and come up with ways to look at all of the model runs and average them over 24 hours to try and not flip flop the forecast.  Yesterday I mentioned that the high end of the forecast for 8k along the crest had only waivered between 19" - 22" all week. 

Over the past 24 hours the GFS model has trended consistently drier, and this morning there is decent model agreement in a high end total liquid from this storm of 1.25 inches west of the lake along the Sierra crest, with lesser amounts going East across the Tahoe basin.  So the high end at 8k today has trimmed back to 15 inches.

Here is a look at the latest GFS and European model runs for total precip through Friday.

If the Euro looks drier, it is still because it has less snow showers on Friday behind the front.  The storm has slowed enough that we may not see the first flakes until after 4 p.m. tomorrow.  Tonight into tomorrow may mostly be clouds with a high wind event that will most likely close lifts. 

As the front moves in tomorrow evening snow levels should crash below lake level pretty quickly during the evening.  That is why I have not trimmed down the lake level forecast that much compared to the mountains, but we could see less at lake level if snow levels fall slower than forecast.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast.  I might lean towards the lower end at lake level to be safe, but for the mountains I think it's a good range.  If the snow showers fire up like the GFS is showing on Friday, then I think we can see over a foot on the mountains on the West side of the lake.

The snow showers should be done by Friday evening.  Then cold weekend ahead with highs only in the 20's on the upper mountains.  The next storm moves in Sunday night into Monday.  The trough is not forecast to dig as deep this time, with a weaker jet stream that stays further North.

The GFS still tries to pull in a decent moisture feed still, but latest runs have the moisture feed falling apart as it pushes into Northern CA.  So we may only see light snowfall for Sunday night into Monday.  The latest model runs are actually in decent agreement with only up to half an inch of total liquid with this storm along the crest.

Here is a look at the updated GFS and European precip forecasts through Monday.

You can see not much added to the Friday totals.  The good news is that it's another cold storm.  Here is the updated snowfall forecast by Monday afternoon.

There is a 3rd storm lined up to push in next Wed-Thu.  This storm looks like it could have a stronger jet stream aimed further South into CA.  The models have been flip flopping on that.  It looks like we could either see a repeat of the Thursday night storm or the Sunday night storm depending on the how much moisture pushes into the area.  So we will watch that one closely.

Here is a look at the wetter GFS on top through next Thursday and drier European solution on the bottom.

By Friday the 26th the ridge is rebuilding along the West Coast for drier weather into the weekend.

It still looks like it could be short-lived, with the ridge possibly retrograding West away from the coast the week of the 29th. 

This is more than 10 days out, well beyond the models ability to accurately forecast storms, but the latest runs make sense given the pattern forecast.  They show strong storms into the Pacific NW to start the week of the 29th, eventually pushing further South into CA around February 1st.

Hopefully this isn't just a one week cold shot with a few cold storms, and then back to dry weather. 

Stay tuned...BA

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