The rainy, autumn-like weather we’ve had this week is slowly moving off to the east today, and most areas should start seeing cooler temperatures and clearer skies in the coming 48 hours. However, before that, cooler temperatures have filtered in enough to give areas around Lake Superior a good chance of some lake effect snowfall between now and Friday, but only in the 1-3” range.

For the weekend, the entire area should have a calm Saturday, before a quick moving low pressure system moves through the region on Saturday night and Sunday. Right now the models are showing very little precipitation, so looking at almost no accumulations in central Minnesota and Wisconsin, with only light totals of less than an inch outside of lake effect bands further north. Regardless, this system will keep us around and below freezing across the entire area, and therefore allow most places to make snow from here on out (fingers crossed).

This is where my eyes are starting to grow a bit wider, albeit very hesitantly because the models seem to change on a daily basis. Nonetheless, Tuesday and Wednesday next week should have some sort of unsettled weather.

Right now the GFS is the less impressive of the two global models with it bringing through a clipper system that will bring moderate snowfall to northern areas, while blocking any larger scale low moving northeast off the Rockies and impacting us. This is the solution I hope doesn’t play out.

GFS model forecast for Monday night. Note the blocking clipper keeping the low over Louisiana.

The European model has the clipper systems staying north of the border to start the week, and therefore allows a large low pressure system to move through the Midwest, similar to the one that brought blizzard conditions to western Minnesota a few weeks ago. Right now the model moves this low around a few hundred miles east and west between runs, but has been slightly more consistent with having some sort of large system. This is what I want to happen.

EC sea level pressure for Thursday night (only graphic I can post). Large low moves over the area.

Regardless, both storms looks to be cold enough that precipitation type shouldn’t be an issue, seeing that we are now into December. But since the spread between them is too large, not calling anything a done deal yet.

Until next week, keep your fingers crossed that most places can keep their snow guns going all weekend and get open sooner than later!

Andrew