While snow continues to fall over western Canada, the 1-2 week outlooks now show a good chance for significant snow to accumulate over the Rocky Mountains of the western United States. The best chance for this will be between about October 6-10.
Short Term Forecast
For today's photo, let’s look at the fresh coating of flakes covering Showdown Mountain in the eastern mountains of Montana.
It is not surprising to see snow in eastern Montana as the weather pattern during the second half of September favored snow and cold temperatures over the northern Rockies of the United States and Canada.
This same pattern will persist for about one more week, with the forecast for October 1-5 showing the best chance for snow over the northwest.
However, when we take the map above and add the snow that is forecast from October 6-10, we see that parts of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado might be able to grab significant snow.
I want to emphasize that you should not treat a 10-day snow forecast as fact because the forecast will change.
That said, the above maps show the average snow forecast across 51 model versions, and when many of these models agree and show a signal for significant snow in the 10-day window, we should pay attention!
The bottom line is that more mountains in the western US will likely see their first significant snowfall between about October 6-10.
Looking ahead to the 10-15 day forecast, from October 10-15, temperatures are forecast to continue to be below average for the Rocky Mountains of the western US.
While I do not trust precipitation forecasts out to 10-15 days, I do have some trust in the temperature predictions at this lead time, so it's worth paying attention to.
The forecast (above) for below-average temperatures through mid-October could mean that the chance for snow over the western US may extend from October 6-10 through October 10-15.
Keep your eye on the latest forecasts and webcams here on OpenSnow to see how this early-season stormy period evolves.
I’ll be back on Sunday, October 7 with the next update to this "US and Canada" forecast, and in the meantime, check out the Colorado, Utah, and Tahoe Daily Snows as our forecasters will be covering these storms with updates every 1-2 days.
Thanks for reading!
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