Summary:

Dry weather today (Thursday) and tomorrow before things start to pick up.  Northwest flow Thursday thru Tuesday should deliver copious high elevation snow to the Northern Mountains.  Another colder storm timing for Christmas Day!

Details:

Finally back in Utah after being in NYC since the end of November.  I made sure to pack a good forecast with me when I came home.  So now that I'm home and not updating from my phone, let's get down in the the details... You're going to like 'em!

We start off dry today and tomorrow and a mild inversion continues in the valleys with some haze.  The first system of note will pass through Friday night.  This is a weak little guy that at best might just bring a few light mountain snow showers, but it will act as a primer and set the stage for things to come.

Saturday night into Sunday a moist (atmospheric river) northwest flow develops over the area.  If you've been reading this site for awhile, when I say "northwest flow", it should immediately pique your attention:

 

This northwest flow will get snow going for the Wasatch Saturday night and snow should continue thru at least the day on Monday.  We are going to be on the southern edge of this "river" and that means that it will favor areas to the north.  I see Logan Pass and Beaver Mountain really getting hammered.  The other thing to watch will be snow levels.  I don't think they'll be as high as our atmospheric river event last February, but they should be well above valley floors.  Probably bouncing around between 6,500 and 7,500 feet.  So how much snow can we expect? It's still early and these events are extremely hard to forecast as slight deviations from north to south can affect precipitation amounts drastically.  Here is the current model prediction through Tuesday:

You can see it paints 1-2" of liquid over the area, which would translate to 1-2 feet of snow over the highest elevations.  Again, I think the areas that are your best bet would be either up north of I-84, or the Cottonwoods, which do well in northwest flows.  Sunday, Monday and possibly even Tuesday should all have fresh snow to shred, albeit of a bit heavier-than-normal variety.

It looks like Tuesday we might get a break as the "hose" retreats northward again when the jet buckles.  However, indication are that we will see it redevelop on Christmas Eve with a stronger, colder wave of energy moving into the area on Christmas Day.  At this point (and It is still very early), it looks like it will drop snow levels to valley floors and we could be looking at a very snow Christmas in Northern Utah.  Here is the same model output shown previously, but now extended through Christmas Day:

 

Translation: a potential for A LOT of snow fall over the next 8 days or so....

Snowpack:

I know things have been bad and many have realized that this season so far has paralleled 2011-2012 very closely.  A quick look at snowpacks right now reveals that you are right.  Green line is this year in the graphs below, red line is 2011-2012 and blue line is average:

  

 

Snowbird, Brighton, and Thaynes Canyon (Park City) respectively...  So clearly we are hurting...

Here is a broader look at the West right now:

 

As you can see by the numbers, it could be better... But it could be a lot worse too.  Luckily, all these numbers are going to improve by leaps and bounds over the next 10 days.  I'll post an updated look later next week when all is said and done.

Thanks for staying patient with the forecast the last few weeks!  There is a reason I stay optimistic, Utah seems to always find a way.  Let's hope this forecast delivers!

Evan | OpenSnow