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Cold this morning with teens in the lower valleys and single digits in the mountains and mountain valleys. Good snow-making conditions. High pressure continues to take full control and with it we should see warming temps aloft and decreasing air quality in the valleys.
As for our next chance of snow, there is still nothing concrete in the forecast. The next 10 days are completely dry in all models. Our only hope is the off-chance that a backdoor weak system could sneak into the region but even that looks unlikely at this time. I spent quite awhile trying to find any signs of a pattern change. It seems that this strong blocking pattern is driven by a PNA index that is going strongly positive. Blocking on the west coast is common in a positive PNA. Generally the PNA has a 2-3 week life cycle before flipping negative again. Models perhaps show this starting to head back negative after mid-month:
Also looking at the CFS forecasts which go out 45 days to see what they show. These are typically very unreliable but were grasping at straws right now. The CFS predictably is totally dry for the next 10 days.
The ten days after that carries us up to Christmas and shows a gradual improvement, then further improvement as we go thru New Years. Finally, it culminates in a very active pattern developing in January as seen below:
A super long-range forecast like this is not something we can take to the bank. But there's hope if we're patient. What we do know for sure is things can only get better from the current 10-day outlook. If you missed it, we looked at current snowpack and how it will be affected in yesterday's post. I'm only going to update again when there is news to deliver, not sure if that will be tomorrow, or Friday, or this weekend. Stay tuned!
Evan | OpenSnow