Chase Powder Daily Snow

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By Powderchaser Steve, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago February 2, 2023

Ground Hog Day! 6 more weeks of winter.

Summary

Phil saw his shadow! Woo hoo powder returns to the west by Saturday night over the Sierra and drags east over the northern Rockies. Some deep areas for Sunday in the Sierra.

Short Term Forecast

Phil saw his shadow this morning! This is great news with winter continuing. I believe that Phil is about 35% accurate with data going back many years. Do we believe him? Of course! He might just be more accurate than us forecasters! Good morning Phil! 

The west will return to seeing some snowfall to close out the week. Light to moderate snow will fall over the northern Cascades by Saturday (Very warm conditions Thursday/Friday) and increase over the western BC resorts. A weak cold front will keep snow levels at or below 4,000 feet in the PNW this weekend with some models showing moderate to perhaps heavy snow for Whistler by Saturday/Sunday. Lighter snows are expected in the Cascades of Washington (Baker favored). 

The bigger news is going to be in the Sierra for decent totals that land from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning. The snow levels hover around lake level (5,000 feet) until early morning Sunday when it drops to 3500. Snow quality starts out dense and finishes colder (Ride quality will be dependent on how much snow falls after the cold front near 2AM Sunday). Winds are going to be strong Saturday PM to Sunday AM decreasing to moderate ranges by midday Sunday. It's likely some lift impacts will be found from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning. Upper lifts might not spin on Sunday at some higher elevation resorts along the Crest. Snow totals look good for 12-22  inches along the Sierra Crest (Higher end totals above 7,000 feet). The northern Sierra resorts seem a bit favored versus southern areas towards Mammoth (11-16). Bottom Line: Good storm timing wise (PM Saturday), a bit on the warm side through the first 75% of snowfall (Medium to dense) but finishes cold. Winds are strong initially and early Sunday. Decent totals. 

Below: Short term NAM models confirming data from the GFS and European models of some decent totals for the Sierra by Sunday morning. This map is through 9AM Sunday with some additional snow falling through mid morning. 

Below: Cold front enters the Sierra late Saturday night with the coldest temps (-10C at 10K feet) around 4AM Sunday. The snow starts out dense and finishes with good quality (Last 25% of the storm). This cold air also kicks off decent snow for the northern Rockies by late Sunday or Monday. 

Extended Forecast

Elsewhere in the west, highlights will be found in Alaska next week with a moderate storm Monday and heavy snow by mid to late week. Alyeska Ski Resort  might see 2-3 feet storm totals from Sunday night to Friday. The PNW continues to see light to moderate events with flip flopping warm fronts followed by cooling. The PNW gets much colder late next week with better quality expected (Thursday/Friday next week).

The Sierra storm weakens as it moves east Sunday/Monday. The Rockies will see snowfall during this period favoring Idaho and perhaps the Tetons beginning on Sunday. The models show some areas could see 7-14 inches with a bit less further south in the Wasatch or east towards Colorado. Currently, if I were chasing I might aim for Monday in Wyoming or some spots in Idaho from Lookout Pass (Panhandle), Brundage (Wildcard sitting a bit south or west of the deepest totals), or Sun Valley (Heaviest falls north toward Stanley). The Wasatch range is a wildcard. 

Below: Total snowfall through Monday morning favoring areas of Idaho just north of Sun Valley (Brundage wildcard), the northern panhandle near the Montana border and the Teton Range in Wyoming. The Wasatch should grab lower amounts in the 5-10 inch range for Monday morning. 

Below: Deep totals in Alaska next week. 

Phil has gone back to sleep! Thanks for following the chase powder forecast. 

Please follow @powderchasersteve  on Instagram including a video from Powder Mountain last Sunday! 

I will update this forecast on Friday.

PCS 

About Our Forecaster

Powderchaser Steve

Forecaster

Powderchaser Steve has over 45 years of experience chasing storms based on his weather and local knowledge of resorts on both the East and West Coasts. His snow intel will likely land him at the deepest resort and almost never missing "First Chair" in the process. Follow "The Chase" on OpenSnow to find out where the deepest snow may be falling.

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