Saturday was mostly sunny and warm with daytime highs in the 40s at most mountains. Nighttime lows have been near freezing, which by itself isn't great for snowmaking, but the dry air helps a bunch, so snowmaking has been somewhat effective at night at many spots, and limited additional terrain has opened at Keystone, Loveland, and A-Basin.

For Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, the dry and warm weather will continue. The only interesting weather will be times of high-elevation clouds that will filter the sunshine, and gusty winds during the afternoon.

The next storm will arrive on Tuesday evening or overnight, and snow will fall for all mountains from Tuesday night through Wednesday. This storm has been on our radar for about one week and the models remain consistent with the forecast. The brunt of the storm will track to our north, but at least we will see some snow.

My early take is that the far northern mountains around Steamboat and Cameron pass will have the best chance of seeing 10+ inches of snow. Other northern mountains and the central mountains should be in the 3-8 inch range. And the southern mountains will likely be in the coating to 3-inch range.

Wednesday should be the best chance to enjoy fresh snow, though for mountains near and north of I-70, clouds and snow showers will stick around from Wednesday night through at least Friday, and maybe into Saturday, so snow conditions could/should remain soft through the end of the week.

This midweek system will not be a big one, but at least we'll see some snow this week. As my grandma used to say, 'thank goodness for little favors'.

It's likely that we'll return to dry weather next weekend (Nov 13-14) and into early the following week.

Then during the middle and end of the following week (Nov 17-22), I'm keeping expectations low, but there is a glimmer of hope for more snow. 

Below is the forecast from the American GEFS model, which is made up of 31 versions. In the graphic below, each of the 31 versions is shown by a horizontal line. All of these 31 versions agree that we'll see precipitation on Nov 10-11, then nearly all agree that we'll see dry weather from Nov 12-16, and then many versions show some precipitation from Nov 17-22.

I would NOT call the possible precipitation from Nov 17-22 a good bet, but at least about half of the 31 versions of the model show some precipitation, and other longer-range models present a similar forecast. 

Ideally, we'd be looking at multiple strong storms as we head into late November as we get closer to opening day for more ski areas. That's not what we're seeing here, but at least there's a hint that additional storms will move toward Colorado.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Upcoming Talks

Thursday, November 11

* Beaver Run Resort, Breckenridge, 500-730pm
* Tickets are free, suggested donation to SOS Outreach or Summit Biz Bootcamp

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains