Summary

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be dry, then we’ll see snow from Saturday through the following Thursday. I think the central and northern mountains could see a powder day on Sunday, then the deepest snow should be in the southern mountains and areas east of the divide on Monday into Tuesday. Don’t count out Wednesday and Thursday as potential powder days as well, though they are too far away for me to provide a confident forecast.

 

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Details

The moon is a bit less than full, but the nighttime illumination is still strong as evidenced by this CDOT webcam image from La Veta Pass at around 4am on Thursday morning. Gorgeous.

Source: CDOT

 

Now that we have a moment to breathe in between storms, let’s take a look at our statewide snowpack. The data shows that we are running around 100-110% of average across Colorado and most of the season has been spent near or above average. The thick blue line shows this year’s snowpack and the thick red line is the median.

Source: USDA / NRCS

 

The next three days (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday) will be dry, but don’t worry because we’re about to get a major storm which should mean multiple powder days and will keep our snowpack nicely above average through early February.

The upcoming storm is currently swirling over the northern Pacific Ocean and will move south and east during the next few days.

Source: Weathertap.com

 

We are only about 72 hours from the start of the storm on Saturday, so at this point I feel confident enough to discuss a few details, though keep in mind that some parts of the forecast will change.

Friday night

We might see some snow in northern Colorado, but I think amounts will be light if any snow does fall.

Saturday & Saturday night

Things start to get interesting! A line of heavy snow will stretch from west to east, and this line will move from north to south during the day on Saturday. Snow will fall very heavily along this line, with rates of perhaps 1-2 inches per hour. I think that this heavy snow will settle over Steamboat and extreme northern Colorado on Saturday, and then it should sag south later on Saturday and through Saturday night into Sunday.

I have zero confidence about exactly how fast this line of heavy snow will move, or if it will stall over a certain area. I broad-brushed the forecast for Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday, figuring that the heaviest snow stays north on Saturday, then settles over the northern and central mountains on Saturday night and Sunday. This forecast will change, but it’s the best I can do for now.

Sunday & Sunday night

My current reading of the situation points to Sunday as a likely powder day for the northern and central mountains, though exact amounts will depend on where the line of heavy snow moves from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. Stay tuned…

At some point on Sunday, winds from the west-southwest should begin to bring heavier snow to the southern mountains, and I think the snow will really crank up by late on Sunday and Sunday night while the snow winds down (or at least decreases in intensity) in the northern mountains and parts of the central mountains.

Monday

This should be a great powder day in the southern mountains, with snow possibly continuing through the day. The other region that should see heavy snow is areas east of the divide, like Eldora and Echo, as the winds blow from the east.

Monday night through Thursday

I don’t have any confidence in the detailed forecast for these days. I do think most areas will see snow through this time period, but I don’t know which mountains will be favored or the timing of the best powder. The southern mountains might enjoy another great day on Tuesday, with snow returning to the northern and central mountains on Tuesday through Thursday as the wind direction switches around to blow from the northwest.

Total precipitation from Saturday through Thursday will be impressive. Most models show 1-2 inches of liquid equivalent during this time, which will easily equate to 12-24+ inches. I bet some areas will receive 30 inches or more. The map below is from one run of the American GFS model, so don’t look at it literally because it will change. I am only posting the map because it looks similar to other models with projections for significant precipitation for almost all parts of Colorado.

Source: Weatherbell.com

 

The long range forecast (after next Thursday, February 4th) is mixed. We’ll likely see times of dry weather, but there are hints of storms making an appearance every few days. Overall, no big trends to speak of, so lets focus on the snowy forecast from Saturday through Thursday and then we’ll see if we can figure out how things will shape up during mid February.

Thanks for reading and have a great Wednesday!

JOEL GRATZ

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)