After a dry day on Thursday, snow returned to the northern and central mountains on Thursday night and it continues to fall now on Friday morning.

The Friday morning radar shows this snow streaming from the Pacific Ocean through Utah and into Colorado.

My forecast for this round of snow on Thursday night was 4-8 inches, which generally worked out well. Notable exceptions include Winter Park (11 inches) and Copper (10 inches).

Thursday night totals:

Winter Park - 11”

Copper - 10”

Keystone - 9”

Crested Butte - 7”

Steamboat - 7”

Vail - 6”

Breckenridge - 6”

Beaver Creek - 6”

Abasin - 5”

Loveland - 5”

Monarch - 4”

Aspen Highlands - 4”

The northern-mountain accumulations of 9-11 inches on Thursday night somewhat surprised me because the wind direction from the west-southwest is not ideal for these mountains. However, when there is big-time moisture in the atmosphere, we can get big-time snow and there is a lot of upside potential, so I am surprised but not shocked at the higher totals

The 7-inch report at Crested Butte matches the wind direction from the west-southwest, which is super favorable for CB. I was surprised that Sunlight (2”) and Aspen Mountain and Snowmass (2”) didn’t report more snow as locations to their north and south all reported at least 4 inches (Aspen Highlands reported 4”). The atmosphere has a way of evening things out, though, so I bet Sunlight and Aspen will do well during future parts of this storm cycle.

During the Thursday night snowfall, the temperature rose steadily from the teens into the low 20s at most mountains. We generally like to see temperatures decrease during the storm, meaning that fluffier snow would fall on top of thicker snow. When temperatures rise during a storm, we can see somewhat thicker snow accumulating on top of fluffier snow. Thickness is relative as our snow is usually much lighter than locations closer to the coast. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how this snow skis on Friday due to the warming temperatures during the storm.

Big-time snow and variable / warming temperatures should make backcountry folks thoughtful and cautious. Please check the CAIC website for avalanche information and forecasts before heading into the backcountry. Thursday night’s snowfall and the next 9-day storm cycle will undoubtedly increase the avalanche risk.

Friday will see snow continue through mid-morning in the central and northern mountains, adding a few inches to the snow report you see on Friday morning. Friday afternoon should be drier and warmer still, so the snow may thicken up a bit and many roads may transition from snow packed to slushy or just wet.

Friday night will continue the dry weather we saw on Friday afternoon.

Saturday will start dry with perhaps some breaks of sunshine. Then the next wave of snow will begin later on Saturday afternoon and continue through midday Sunday. I have high hopes that most mountains will receive 6-18 inches from this wave of snow, between Saturday evening and Sunday afternoon. Also, temperatures will be warm as the snow starts on Saturday afternoon and then will cool on Sunday, hopefully leading to a “right-side-up” snowpack with denser snow under lighter snow. Sunday should be a powder day with the highest amounts in the northern and central mountains (8-18 inches) and likely decent snow in the southern mountains as well (4-8 inches).

Sunday evening should bring an end to the snow or at least a decrease in the snow.

The forecast for next week is challenging.

Waves of moisture and energy could bring snow to Colorado each day from Monday, Dec 12 through Sunday, Dec 18. I have little to no confidence in my ability to forecast the exact timing of the heavier snowfall. Perhaps the best powder days next week will be Tuesday, Wednesday, and sometime in the Friday through Sunday time frame. That’s just an initial guess … stay tuned for details.

The central and northern mountains could receive an additional 2 feet of snow next week and next weekend, which would add to the 1-2 feet that these mountains will measure through Sunday, Dec 11.

This is an amazing storm cycle and I think you owe it to yourself to ski as much as possible:-)

Also, this storm cycle should bring our snowpack up to near or above average by the time we get to December 18th. Not bad considering we had virtually no snow on the ground three weeks ago during the middle of November!

Happy powder day and thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

1) I am giving a talk in Frisco on Saturday, December 10th at 6pm. The entire Kickoff Event at Elevate Co-Space lasts from 4-8pm and will host many companies with other speakers. Full details: https://www.facebook.com/events/1620297181605207/

2) Contest – Prepare for the upcoming season with the Gear Up For Winter Sweepstakes presented by Liftopia! Prizes include new DPS skis, limited edition SPY goggles, Yakima cargo box, and $1,500 worth of gift cards from Liftopia, EVO, and The Feed. Enter to Win: http://opsw.co/2gdRiuy

3) We are writing Daily Snow posts specific to Steamboat (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/steamboat), Copper (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/copper), Vail (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/vail), and Breckenridge (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/breckenridge).

4) Please help a friend of mine by taking this 4-question survey. It should take fewer than 30 seconds. It is for market research relating to a product that will keep your phone from shutting down when it gets too cold. https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZYJMVL

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains
Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains