Forecast for Saturday:

The Friday night/Saturday AM disturbance has turned out to be a non-event other than some clouds and flurries. The inversion did finally mix out in the Jackson valley on Friday night and we are waking up to temps in the upper teens to low 20s in the valleys and slightly cooler temps in the mountains.

Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies with sun occasionally breaking through. 

Clouds are currently covering the higher peaks of the Tetons as of mid-morning Saturday:

However, cloud ceilings appear to be just above the summits of JHMR and Targhee, at least for now.

I do think cloud ceilings could dip into the (lift-served) skiable terrain from time to time, so be prepared for occasional low visibility, but cloud cover and cloud heights will be variable and we should see some sun breaking through at times.

Highs on Saturday will reach the low 20s at 9,000 feet and low 30s in the valleys. Ski conditions may be a bit variable as temperatures got above freezing at mid to upper-mountain locations on Friday. Stick to shaded terrain and north-facing aspects for the softest conditions.

Winds above 9,000 feet will be out of the west at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph.

Forecast for Sunday to Monday:

A storm remains on track to close out the weekend and it has trended a little bit stronger since my last post. 

Snow will begin on Sunday afternoon with the heaviest and most widespread accumulations expected during the overnight hours on Sunday night.

Lingering moisture with northwest winds aloft will result in backside snow showers during the day on Monday, which will favor Targhee and the western side of the Teton Range.

Snow Totals:

Snow totals from Sunday afternoon through first thing Monday morning will range from 4-8 inches in the Tetons above 8,000 feet and 1-3 inches in the valleys as well as Snow King.

Snow shower activity on Monday will result in additional 1-2 inches at JHMR and Teton Pass and 2-5 inches at Targhee. The JH Valley will pick up another trace to half-inch on Monday, while Teton Valley could see anywhere from a trace to 2 inches of additional snow on Monday.

So for storm total snowfall Sunday-Monday, I will go with 5-10 inches at JHMR and Teton Pass above 8,000 feet and 6-13 inches at Targhee.

Snow Quality and Temperature Trends:

This will be a "right-side-up" snow event with snow on Sunday afternoon starting out fairly dense but with a trend toward lower-density snow over the course of the event. Overall snow-liquid ratios on Sunday-Sunday night should be around 12:1 while snow-liquid ratios on Monday will be around 15:1.

Temperatures at 9,000 feet will start out in the low 20s as snow begins on Sunday afternoon before lowering into the low teens on Sunday night and remaining steady in the low teens during the day on Monday.

Valley temperatures will reach the low to mid 30s on Sunday before falling into the mid 20s on Sunday night, and then rising in to the low 30s again on Monday afternoon (Teton Valley will be slightly cooler than the JH valley on Monday, however).

Wind:

Winds during the day on Sunday above 9,000 feet will be out of the southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. On Sunday night, winds will veer to west and eventually west/northwest at 15-25 mph with gusts to 35-45 mph in the evening before decreasing to 20-25 mph later in the night.

On Monday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph, a good setup for orographic lift on the west side of the Tetons. 

Skiing Conditions:

Sunday afternoon will be a bit early to take advantage of the fresh snow, but there will be some light accumulations on the slopes toward the end of the day. Monday morning will offer the deepest conditions overall.

Keep in mind, we will be coming out of a week of dry conditions and temperatures rose above freezing toward the end of the dry spell, so there will likely be some crusts or hardpack layers lurking under the new snow, especially on south-facing or any other sun-exposed aspects. 

Travel Conditions:

Travel conditions will begin to deteriorate over Teton Pass on Sunday afternoon/evening as snowfall rates and winds pick up, while Monday morning will feature the slowest travel conditions with snowpacked roads over the pass and valley roads.

Additional snow showers will keep winter conditions going over the pass during the day on Monday and to a lesser extent possibly for Teton Valley roads as well, while the JH Valley will see improving conditions and some melting on the roads by Monday afternoon. 

Outlook for Tuesday (Feb 7) to Wednesday (Feb 8):

We will see a break in the action on Wednesday, then we are seeing a bit more clarity that a storm will arrive on Wednesday.

Models are still not in great agreement on the exact storm track, but we've seen models come into general agreement regarding the timing and I now have more confidence that we will pick up at least some snowfall on Wednesday.

Overall, this looks like it will be a weaker storm with light to possibly moderate snow totals depending on how things shake out. At the very least, it could be a nice refresh after the Sunday-Monday storm.

Outlook for February 9th and Beyond:

Following the Wednesday storm, it looks like we are going to head into another dry spell for about a week. High pressure will build over our area initially, and then a storm reaching the West Coast during the weekend of Feb 11th-12th will weaken and pass well south of our area with no snow expected for us.

Looking further out, I'm seeing hints that we could see storms return to our area by around February 15th-16th. 

Thanks so much for reading and have a great weekend! Next update on Monday (Feb 6).

ALAN SMITH