Montana Daily Snow

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By Bob Ambrose, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago March 20, 2023

First Day of Spring Brings Snowfall back to the Northern Rockies

Summary

A trough of low-pressure south of the Northern Rockies will throw a series of disturbances northward into the mountains of SW Montana on Monday and Tuesday. Big Sky, Lost Trail, and Bridger Bowl could see 4” – 10” thru Tuesday. A little break Wednesday and Thursday before another low on Friday brings a shot of more widespread light to moderate accumulations into the coming weekend.

Short Term Forecast

Below: National Blend of Models (NBM) for snowfall across the Treasure State for the period Monday morning through noon local time on Wednesday. Most of the snowfall will occur across the southwest (SW) tier of the State. 

West of the Continental Divide:

Monday: Most of the precipitation associated with the low-pressure trough brushing the region will fall across the mountains along and south of I-90 Monday and Monday night. Winter Weather Advisories are out until noon Tuesday for these areas. Look for snow to begin in the late afternoon hours becoming heavier overnight on Monday. Lost Trail (reopens Thursday) is best positioned for cumulative storm totals of 3 – 6” (through Tuesday afternoon). Lookout Pass, Snowbowl, and Discovery could see 1 – 2”. To the north, and out of the storm’s reach, look for mostly cloudy skies at Whitefish. Slightly cooler on Monday with mountain top highs of 28 – 32F. Light E/SE winds with afternoon gusts to 20 mph.  

Tuesday: Off and on light snow showers look to continue for areas along and south of I-90 until around noon on Tuesday before the shortwave disturbance moves out of the region. Whitefish will see partly sunny skies. A couple of degrees cooler with afternoon highs 26 – 30F across the mountain tops with light E/NE winds.

Wednesday & Thursday: The region will be under a broad trough of low-pressure, but most storm systems will be moving well south of the region. Generally, a dry forecast with partly sunny skies for both days with a few isolated snow showers possible on Thursday afternoon, especially along the Idaho border at Lookout and Lost Trail. Temps stay right around seasonal with highs 32 – 36F across the high country. Light W/SW winds.  

Friday: Our next storm system, a Pacific shortwave and associated cold front will arrive Friday morning bringing widespread light snowfall across the region. As has been the pattern for the last few months, most of the snowfall looks to occur for the mountains along and south of I-90. Accumulations of 2 – 5” are likely along the Idaho border at Lookout and Lost Trail, with 1 – 3” at Disco and Snowbowl. A trace to an inch is slightly possible at Whitefish and Blacktail. Cooler on Friday with mountain top highs ranging from 20F at Whitefish to 26F at Lookout and Lost Trail. Breezy west winds, with ridgetop gusts to 30 mph.     

East of the Continental Divide: 

Monday: Webcams at Big Sky and Bridger Bowl at 10AM Monday indicated flurries falling with trace amounts on the snow stakes at Big Sky. Look for snow showers to continue across the SW mountains at Big Sky and Bridger through the day. Light accumulations of 1 – 3” possible by 4PM. Cooler with highs at 8000’ 25 – 29F. Light and variable south winds. 

Tuesday: As the trough expands across the region Monday night and another disturbance traverses the trough, look for heavier snow showers overnight across the SW resorts/areas with additional amounts of 2 – 5” likely at Big Sky and Bridger Bowl by first chair on Tuesday morning. Trace amounts up to 2” are also possible (40%) at Red Lodge and Maverick (reopens Thursday). Snow showers continue through the morning hours with additional snowfall in the 1 – 2” range for the aforementioned locations before tapering off during the afternoon. Temps across the mid-mountain 8000’ level of 20 – 23F. Generally, light west winds. 

Wednesday & Thursday: Low-pressure will weaken on Wednesday allowing a shallow ridge to bring mostly cloudy skies with numerous convective afternoon snow showers developing under afternoon solar warming. Surface temps at 8000’ will be slow to warm, remaining below seasonal with highs in the mid to upper 20’s at 8000’. Light winds.

Friday: A NW flow will bring in our next Pacific shortwave and associated cold front Thursday night through Friday night bringing widespread accumulating snow for most areas and resorts. SW Montana’s Big Sky looks well positioned for 5 – 9” through Friday night, with 2 – 4” possible at Bridger and Red Lodge. Elsewhere, 1 – 3” look likely.  Quite chilly on Friday with afternoon highs at 8000’ of 15 – 20F. Breezy west winds, with ridgetop gusts to 30 mph will make it feel like winter across the alpine areas.     
     

Extended Forecast

Saturday, March 25th through Wednesday, March 29th 

Friday’s low-pressure trough looks to slow down and slowly sink south on Saturday bringing a continuation of light accumulating snowfall across the Northern Rockies (NR). Cool and snow showery conditions look to continue Sunday but overall, Sunday looks to be mainly dry across the NR. A transient ridge of high-pressure looks to bring a couple more dry days on Monday and Tuesday before another Pacific low enters the NR on Wednesday. Still a bit of uncertainty with this storm as some models indicate a fairly robust storm with others indicating just light accumulations. Stay tuned. 

Below: Let's check in with the NRCS who monitor our snowpack reserves across the state of Montana. Big Sky which sits on the divide between the Gallatin (115%) and Madison (122%) River Basins is having one of their best snow years in recent memory. They will continue to grow their snowpack over the coming week. 
 


Thanks for tuning in. Next update on Wednesday 3/22.  

Powder Out – 

Bob

Announcements

Montana Ski Areas & Resorts / Geographical References   

WEST of the Divide: 

Whitefish Mountain Resort – OPEN daily

Blacktail Mountain –OPEN Weds - Sun

Turner Mountain – OPEN Fri - Sun

Lookout Pass (MT/ID) - OPEN daily

Montana Snowbowl –  Open Wednesday – Monday (closed Tues)

Discovery Basin – OPEN daily

Lost Trail Powder Mountain – OPEN Thurs - Sun

EAST of the Divide:

Big Sky Resort – OPEN daily

Bridger Bowl – OPEN daily

Red Lodge Mountain – OPEN daily  

Great Divide – OPEN Weds - Sun

Showdown – OPEN Weds - Sun

Teton Pass Ski Area –OPEN Fri - Sun

Maverick Mountain – OPEN Thurs – Sun

 

Backcountry Avalanche Reports:

West Central Montana Avalanche Center

 Flathead Avalanche Center

Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center:

About Our Forecaster

Bob Ambrose

Forecaster

Ever since his early days as a ski racer on the icy slopes of New Hampshire’s White Mountains, Bob chased his dreams of deep powder west to Tahoe and finally Montana. A self-proclaimed 'weather junkie', his passion for maps, charts, and forecasts always lead him to the best snow in Montana.

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