Low clouds hang over the summits of the ski resorts in northern New England on Monday morning as a weakening cold front crosses the region. This cold front is responsible for some light snow showers in the North Country that will produce very little in the way of accumulation. Our Powder Finder has 1" at Jay for the day with another 0-1" at Smuggs that's not even registering on the map. Otherwise, clouds should slowly move out of the region giving way to a mostly sunny day with temperatures pushing into the upper 30s in the valleys and into the upper 20s and lows 30s at the resorts. 

NAM model forecast for 4PM Tuesday through 9AM Wednesday.

High pressure will crest over New England on Tuesday morning with increasing clouds ahead of our next front. The NAM model has the front crossing the region Tuesday night with a band of short-duration, but moderate intensity snowfall for the north half of the region and rain south. If the front arrives too early, expect some rain to mix with snow across the North Country, otherwise precipitation after dark falls mostly as snow. Total accumulation will be 1" for most with a few spots in the Greens notching 2". 

ECMWF model forecast for 7AM Thursday through 7AM Friday.

The storm track seems to be re-establishing itself to our west as our next shot at snow arrives on Thursday with a warm front tied to a storm over the Great Lakes. The timing of this region of precipitation coincides with the cooler overnight period for most and should be a mostly snow event to start, with a mix to rain trailing on the back end into Friday morning. Current thinking is that this warm-air-advection snows will add up to 2-3" across most resorts in New Hampshire and Maine. Too much warm air may make it into Vermont to produce much more than 1-2". If any locations sees 4" it'll likely be at high elevation in the Whites and/or into Maine.  

Total snows through Friday will generally be under 6" across the region with many locations across the northern half of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine getting 2-4". Note that warmer temperatures during the days will knock back the snow depths so it won't actually look like 2-6" of new snow by Friday. 

ECMWF deterministic forecast animation for 1AM Saturday through 7AM Sunday.

We quickly turn our attention to a complex storm that may develop along, near, or somewhere west of the coast (we don't know) on Saturday that will likely bring a mix of rain and snow to the region. A storm is going to develop over the Central U.S. and move toward the Great Lakes. Both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic models want to produce a secondary storm to the east of the Appalachians and take over as the primary storm on Saturday as it moves up the coast. The ECMWF currently has more of a West-to-East track (see above), whereas the GFS take the storm up the coast and inland over New England. In both scenarios there's snow on deck for the interior, but not a lot.

ECMWF and GFS ensemble spread in storm location Friday night. 

The ensembles contain quite a bit of spread in the location of the secondary storm that develops late on Friday into Friday night. The GFS ensemble is faster with the storm located near NYC early on Friday night while the ECMWF ensemble is slower into the overnight period. Both ensembles have the mean location somewhere over Long Island, but spread extends at least 100-200 miles in either direction west-southwest to east-northeast.

ECMWF and GFS ensemble odds of 3" of snow in 24 hours on Saturday.

The ensemble odds of three or more inches of snow is 20-30% in the ECMWF ensemble and largely confined to the northern halves of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. The GFS ensemble has the same pattern, but is more confident with odds at 40-50%. These odds jive with the OpenSnow forecast that calls for a general 1-3" snowfall event across the region, with best accumulations of 2-4" (right now) in the northern Greens and Whites. 

ECMWF ensemble forecast of the large-scale flow next week.

Longer term, we're most likely going to remain warmer than average as a trough of cold air sets up out West and a ridge of warmer air sets up over eastern North America into early next week. The storm track will once again be to our west as any storms that develop over the Central U.S. will move into the Great Lakes Region. Toward the end of next week we should see the trough of cold air over the West begin to eject north into southeast Canada. This pattern shift could either coincide with a major rainstorm and subsequent freeze event late next week or a complex storm that tries to push over the Great Lakes that gives way to secondary development along the coast. As of right now, 10 days out in fantasy land, the ensembles have the rainstorm. Stay tuned.

-Dr. Jay

Next update on Wednesday 8 Feb.