**This is a special summer post in light of the historic wildfires and now the onset of the monsoons. Here is my 2021-2022 New Mexico Ski Season Recap Post. **

It has only been 10 weeks since the ski season ended, and in that short time, New Mexico has suffered the 1st and 2nd largest wildfires in recorded history. Over 850,000 acres have burned across New Mexico in the last two months.

A combination of factors led to this perfect storm of extreme wildfire conditions: a) prolonged underlying multi-year drought across New Mexico, b) record dry April and May 2022, and c) persistent La Niña storm track in April and May that caused weeks on end of strong, dry winds over New Mexico. The May 6th graphic below from the National Weather Service - Albuquerque illustrates this persistent pattern in April and May.

The Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Fire has caused horrible destruction and displacement in dozens of northern New Mexico communities and burned over 340,000 acres, including a swath of our beloved Pecos Wilderness.

There were several weeks in May when Sipapu Ski Resort was on high alert as the fire approached from the southeast. Sipapu management and snow operations crew worked around the clock with snow guns to dampen resort infrastructure and forest (1st photo below), wrap buildings in fire protective foil (2nd photo below), remove chair lifts and cables, and relocate snow cats to Peñasco in the event that the fire reached Sipapu. 

Angel Fire Resort was also on alert in May as the fire crept northward and put surrounding resort communities on the watch for potential evacuations.

Meanwhile, the Black Fire has also burned over 325,000 acres in the Gila National Forest in southwestern New Mexico. The Cerro Pelado Fire and Cooks Peak Fire rounded out the other large fires over the past two months.

Strong Start to the Monsoons
Every year, the monsoon season for New Mexico and Arizona runs from mid-June to mid-September when winds shift from a dry westerly flow to a moist southerly flow. Exactly how and when the rains come depends on regional pressure patterns and nothing is guaranteed.

Thankfully, the 2022 monsoon is off to a strong start in June with the perfect combination of high pressure to our east and thermal low pressure to our west, creating a surge of moisture from the south.

Here is the 60-day precipitation total in New Mexico from April 2nd to June 2nd showing only scant moisture falling over most of the state with greater totals to our north and east.

By comparison, here is the 5-day precipitation total from June 15 to June 20 with a strong start to the monsoons.

And the forecast for the next 7 days (June 21 to June 28) looks very bullish with upwards of 2 to 4+ inches of rain across large portions of the state.

Want to learn how monsoon moisture is converted into actual thunderstorms and rain? Check out these awesome educational articles from OpenSnow's Alan Smith recently published.

Three Key Ingredients for Mountain Thunderstorms

Understanding the Various Types of Thunderstorms

Lightning Safety in the Mountains

From Fires to Floods
The robust monsoon rains are incredibly good news for the fires and ongoing drought.

However, significant flooding risks and dangers are expected over the next several days, especially in burn scar areas and drainages. This graphic explains the nature of burn scar flooding.

 

Impacted communities have been hard at work this past week with flood mitigation efforts.

I will post another monsoon and fire update in July. 

Enjoy the rain, moisture, and cool temperatures. And let's hope flooding doesn't impact communities and river ecosystems too badly this upcoming period.

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

SUMMER FORECASTS:

Make sure to follow our summer service, OpenSummit, to always catch the best weather window for your next adventure. OpenSummit is included in your OpenSnow subscription!

With OpenSummit, you can quickly...

• See if a trail is dry, wet, or snow-covered based on recent weather trends.
• View color-coded risk assessment for rain, lightning, and wind.
• Track smoke from wildfires and forecast this smoke for the next 2 days.

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