Whoa! This is a really difficult forecast. The next couple days are easy... Mostly sunny and dry... but on Saturday, we will have a system that will spread energy into Southern Utah. Yesterday I discussed this. The wrench in this all is that models have been trending farther north. Some models have even brought decent snowfall as far north as the Cottonwood Canyons and Park City. For example, look at the 06z NAM from this morning:

But then looks at the subsequent 12z run... 

You can see in this run, the snow stays just south of the Cottonwoods/PC. It's an extremely difficult forecast because it is a very fine line between decent accumulation and no snow at all. This uncertainty is reflected well in the SREF plumes:

Some members going fairly big, while others bring little to nothing...

What does this mean for this weekend? What we know for sure is that Southern and Central Utah (Brian Head/Eagle Point) will see periods of snow Saturday and Saturday night with up to a foot of accumulation. Sundance could get in on a bit of the action too. But the farther north you go, the less likely we are to see significant snowfall. 

Of course, there is still a chance this could trend farther north still. If that were to be the case, then Saturday night could be snowy in the Central Wasatch (Cottonwoods/PC) with potential for a decent Sunday.  I am going to watch closely today for updates. 

Once this storm moves out on Sunday, we will have a follow-up system out of the northwest on Monday. This follow-up system looks weak so I don't expect much, but a few inches is possible. 

The overall pattern to end February is not a good one for big storms. A ridge to our west is doing its best to block storm energy. However, we should be far enough east of the ridge that the temperatures stay relatively cool. Models are still hinting at a retrogression of the ridge and opening of the storm door during the first week of March. We shall see....

Evan | OpenSnow