Dry thru the end of the work week. It looks like we'll be clipped by a sneaky system this weekend that could bring a few snow showers and lower temperatures a bit. Still waiting to see if the pattern change develops after Thanksgiving.
Short Term Forecast
Boring short-term forecast with nothing really going on this week. More of the same with gradually warming temps each day. This weekend could be a bit more interesting. Over the past 36 hours, models have grabbed onto a new idea in which an inside slider system drops into our area out of the north. This is a moisture-starved system, but it will have some colder air and will bring another chance for some snow showers. Don't get too excited, this is mostly just another teaser system at best -- but it is a change to the forecast. We may no longer be totally dry between now and Thanksgiving -- which I suppose is good news....
Unfortunately, we are "back-loading" the forecast again with most of the useful information outside of a week away. The pattern is going to to start to shift leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday. What that will mean for us here in Utah is still in doubt. A couple days ago, the GFS and ECMWF were in good agreement that it looked like the pattern would become more active in Utah during the days just after Thanksgiving. However, the GFS has started showing the systems off the Pacific coast as being much less progressive. For a few runs now, it doesn't really bring much in the way of good storms inland for the next 15 days. The EC (Euro), however, continues to maintain that storm energy will push inland around Thanksgiving day or just after. This disagreement in the models is leading to very low confidence. There continues to be very little we can do but wait and hope.... Right now, due to lack of major snow producing storms in the forecast and very low confidence, stoke is quite low on my personal stoke meter.
Until we get something real into the forecast that I can have some confidence in, I think that Stoke Level is going to stay low.
Evan | OpenSnow
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