The nice weather should continue for at least a week.  Next week we could see a cool down by mid-week but no storms.  Watching the first week of November (5th) for the possibility of a storm.

High pressure is sitting over the West Coast and is expected to keep us dry with highs in the 60's for the next week.

Next week the forecast models have been pretty consistent with shifting the ridge off the coast with a large trough over the western U.S.

I mentioned this pattern in the last post and how we should see cooler air by the middle of next week.  It could also set up a pattern where storms try to dive down from the North as we saw a couple weeks ago.  Right now, however, the forecast models keep the storms just to our East with cold and snow for the Rockies.  

Also consistent on the model runs have been the ridge weakening and a stronger storm pushing in around the 5th of November.

That's 2 weeks away so obviously in the fantasy range, but right now it looks like the first chance for snowfall in the next 2 weeks unless we see sliders next week.  It is the first time this season that decent snowfall is showing up in the forecast, so I will be watching closely.

The MJO (madden julian oscillation) is forecast to strengthen back through phases 8-1 week 2, which lines up with the ridge shifting West and allowing storms to possibly dig into CA the first week of November, as shown on recent model runs.

The Winter:

This week we saw more warming in 3 of the 4 ENSO regions along the equator.  Regions 3, 3.4, & 4 are all now sitting near 1 degree above average, which is close to moderate El Nino territory.  But the water just off of South America in region 1+2 is still cooling and only 0.3 degrees above average now.  That continues to make this look like a Modoki type El Nino with the warmest water centered towards the central Pacific.

Here is a link to an explanation of Modoki versus a normal El Nino event.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

As you can see in the article, the Modoki El Nino events are usually drier for CA than normal El Nino seasons.  There seems to be more of these events in recent years.  For some reason, the warm Kelvin waves from the western Pacific aren't pushing warm water all the way east.  There is still time for more warm water to push east this fall, so we will keep watching.

An active MJO in the Indian Ocean may help us this Winter even if the Modoki position of the El Nino may try to work against us.  Still not sure if the ridge sitting near the West Coast this Winter is further North allowing storms into CA, or it sits a bit South like we saw in 14-15 and 15-16 El Ninos keeping CA drier than we hoped.  The winter forecasts that have come out so far have ranged from below average, to right on the fence, to above average for the Northern half of CA. 

Definitely a hard season to try and nail down at this point, although it's never really possible to nail it down for sure any season as there are so many variables that control the weather pattern, and many are short-range that can't be predicted months in advance.  Normally a historical average of similar looking setups during the fall and forecast for the Winter are used.  So when historically we don't have a lot of records matching or the ones that do vary from well below to well above average precip, it's hard to tie to a forecast for the upcoming season.

Maybe it wouldn't be as much fun to track down storms if we knew for sure what was going to happen?  Or maybe we would live longer with the lack of stress as snow obsessed skiers and riders?  At least we have each other for emotional support.

Stay tuned...BA