A Message From Our CEO:

To fight the spread of the COVID-19 virus, California ski areas are closed. Some mountains, including Vail Resorts, announced that this closure will continue through the end of the season. This is really important and should help the situation work out much better than a worst-case scenario. Here is the announcement from Vail Resorts: https://www.snow.com/info/Vail-Resorts-COVID-19-Resort-Closing-Update

For chasing powder, we have received requests from first responders and community leaders to communicate that they do not want people coming from out of town and definitely don’t want to deal with potential snow-related injuries when their focus should be on COVID-19. The Town of Truckee has asked that people Not visit Truckee right now: https://www.facebook.com/VisitTruckee/. Locals, please be extra responsible and cautious when enjoying the outdoors so that you’re safe and do not cause a burden to healthcare workers.

For the individual mountain Daily Snows that we usually write for Squaw & Mammoth, we are going to stop writing those based on requests from some communities that do not want to draw attention and crowds based on writing about incoming storms. We will continue to write both the Tahoe Daily Snow & I-80 Daily Snow. For other forecast locations outside of the ski areas, please check our other service OpenSummit.com and on our iPhone/Android apps.

For our snow-loving community and local mountain communities, we will get through this. In the meantime, please help and support those around you in need. Support employees & local businesses that are going to suffer from this if you aren't being affected yourself and can help.

Joel Gratz - Founding Meteorologist & CEO of OpenSnow/OpenSummit

The Forecast:

We saw some scattered snow showers over the mountains Monday into this morning. Some steadier snow showers developed this morning on the west side of the lake and up along the crest. We saw snow-coated roads & chain controls as the sun came up.

It was also snowing down near lake level west of 89...

Roads are just wet now with the high sun angle. Showers have been confined to the west side of the lake and near the crest so far, but that will changed later this afternoon & tonight.

I only have the nearest snotel sensors to try & get an idea of snowfall. It looks like 1-2 inches fell on most mountains through early this morning, with a slightly higher reading NW of the lake where up to 6 inches may have fallen near the crest.

Low pressure is moving south down the coast and then inland into Wednesday. 

That will push a cold front through the area later this afternoon into Tuesday night. The snow will increase and spread across the Tahoe basin this afternoon as the front approaches and moves through.

Ridgetop winds are gusting to 60+ mph this morning & that will continue through the day, then to 50+ mph into Wednesday morning and falling off by afternoon. The heaviest snow is expected Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night when 3-12 inches could fall on the mountains by Wednesday morning & 1-6 inches at lake level. Highest amounts west of 89 and along the crest with lesser amounts to the east side of the lake. Highs in the 20s on the mountains & 30s at lake level.

The snow becomes more scattered & shower again Wednesday behind the cold front. The best chance for showers west of the lake along the crest and over the mountains. Only expecting an additional inch or two on the mountains & it will be hard for snow to stick at lake level during the day with the higher sun angle.

Wednesday night into Thursday we may see a bit of a break, but then with the heating of the day on Thursday, we could see snow showers pop up again over the mountains by Thursday afternoon. We could see a final coating to an inch or so on the mountains.

Total precipitation amounts on the models through Thursday range between 0.80-1.4 inches near the crest with up to 3/4 of an inch on the east side of the lake. The 100 model average is around 0.95 inches which is slightly wetter than yesterday. Here is a look at the WPC model for total precipitation through Thursday afternoon.

Snow ratios around 10-13:1 on the mountains Tuesday, increasing to 14-18:1 Tuesday night with a more powdery snow. The average snow ratios around 8k through Thursday of 15:1. Here is a look at the updated total snowfall forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.

Friday:

Friday looks like a mostly sunny day with lighter winds. Highs into the 30s on the mountains and 40s at lake level.

The Weekend:

The trend for the weekend has been for the system moving through the Pacific NW Sat-Sun to drop a bit farther south. 

The GFS 06z run was the wettest. Most model runs are just brushing us with light precip Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. We will have to keep watching the trend to see if we will just see a few light rain/snow showers, or if we could see a few inches of snow on the mountains. Snow levels would drop to lake level if we see steadier snow showers. 

Next week we may start dry. The trough is just to the north from this weekend into next week.

That pattern has us getting the southern edge of the storm track this upcoming weekend and maybe again with a storm around the middle of next week.

It had looked like we could see a drier pattern this weekend into next week, but the trend has been for a weaker ridge over the West and a farther south storm track into northern CA. We will continue to watch that trend the next few days to see if we could see the active pattern continue but with weaker storms.

Fantasy Range:

The other trend is for the trough to possibly dig farther south into the eastern Pacific the week of the 6th, and be a bit closer to the West Coast.

Some model runs show a decent storm for April that week. Winter may not be quite done with us yet. With a change in the seasons, we usually start to see the long-range models struggle with more flip-flopping beyond a week...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. A sincere thank you again to all of those that have supported us over the past week by signing up for or renewing their All-Access Pass. It's not just a way to support us but you all get a lot more features that you will be able to access through this time next year!

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