We are still on track for a nice Thanksgiving holiday. The next chance for snow looks to hold off until late Sunday night or Monday morning.

High pressure will dominate the pattern into the weekend with highs into the 40s and near 50 degrees at lake level, along with mostly sunny skies during the day.

Breezy east winds through Thursday over the ridgetops from the east, turning west Friday into the weekend. Gusts up to 30+ mph at times. Slightly cooler Sunday but highs are still in the 40s as a pattern change is just starting.

Sunday night through next week, and likely into the weekend of the 3rd-4th, we are shifting from a positive PNA pattern this week to a negative PNA pattern.

With a cold trough digging down into the West we will see colder air move into the region.

With the trough, we also have the storm door open to storms diving into the trough from Sunday night through the weekend of the 3rd - 4th. 

For a high chance for wet systems to track south over the ocean and into CA, I'd prefer to see the trough centered over the West Coast. The forecast map above shows the trough centered just east over the Great Basin with a strong ridge in the eastern Pacific.

With the pattern forecast, the storms would dive down the west side of the trough. That means they could track just off the coast pulling in lots of moisture or just inland pulling in less moisture. They can also miss northern CA just to our east.

The forecast models look to be struggling with the track of the storms because of this. Some model runs the last few days have been very wet for next week like the 12z run of the GFS model Tuesday...

...while others are showing the storms taking a drier track like the 06z GFS model run Wednesday morning.

The ensemble mean models average together dozens of runs. Looking at multiple ensemble mean models and the operational models (a lot of model runs in total) the trend the past 24 hours has been drier. Here is a look at the GFS ensemble mean model for total precip through Saturday the 3rd.

Overall a colder pattern starting Monday seems a lock, and a more active pattern as well with the trough over the West, but the details of each system we will have to iron out as we get closer. The latest model runs show the chance for 3 storms days 6-11. 1) Monday, 2) Thursday the 1st, and 3) Saturday the 3rd.

Monday Storm:

This storm is still 5.5 - 6 days out, but with all of the hype I'm already seeing about a pattern change and snow for next week, I wanted to calm everyone down and look at what the models suggest we could see through Monday.

The latest model runs show snow showers moving in during the early morning hours Monday and snow ending by Monday evening. Snow levels dropping below lake level at the start and dropping below 4000 ft. by evening.

High temperatures dropping into the 30s at lake level and 20s for the upper mountains. Ridgetop winds likely increasing from the southwest with strong gusts up to 80+ mph at times. So not a great day for skiing, it may be stormy.

The latest model runs show a range of total precip between 0.2 - 0.8 inches west of the lake up along the Sierra crest depending on the track of this system, and up to 0.4 inches to the east side of the lake. The average this morning is around half an inch on the high end near the crest, which is shown best by the European model.

Looking at the possible snow ratios, that precipitation average would bring us around a dusting up to 3 inches on the east side of the lake, and 1-6 inches of snow for the west side of the Tahoe basin.

That is the initial forecast. We will watch the trends as we get closer. It's possible the amounts trend back up if the storm can track closer to the ocean pulling in more moisture, but confidence is low with the pattern setup.

Days 7-11:

Tuesday through Saturday the 3rd we could see two more storms move through. Tuesday into next Wednesday the 30th looks like it could be cold and dry with highs in the 30s at lake level and 20s for the upper mountains.

Next Thursday the 1st could be the next chance for a storm. Again, the track of this system will determine how wet it is.

We will continue to watch the trends on this storm as well as we get closer. The models show a 3rd system around Saturday the 3rd that may also track down the coast with similar forecasting headaches. 

One or more of these systems could track just right to bring us big snow, but the models will likely change day to day as they try to determine the track. A slight jog east or west with the tracks can make a big difference with the snowfall forecast.

Stay tuned...BA

Ski Area Opening Dates:

• Boreal - Open
• Donner Ski Ranch - Open (weekends only)
• Northstar - Open
• Palisades - Open
• Mt. Rose - Open
• Heavenly - Open
• Kirkwood - Open
• Dodge Ridge - Open
• China Peak - Open
• Mammoth - Open
• Sugar Bowl - 11/25
• Bear Valley - 11/25
• Sierra at Tahoe - 12/3 -  Welcome Back!!
• Diamond Peak - 12/8
• Tahoe Donner - 12/9
• Homewood - 12/9

We're Ba-ack!!!

On this week's episode, we follow Caleb's dream winter, look at the 5-Day Snowfall Reports for U.S. Ski Resorts, go through the 5-Day Snowfall Forecasts, discuss the Long Range Outlook, as well as a few laughs!

Be sure to join us for another season of good times chasing snow!

Available on most podcast platforms...