Utah Daily Snow
By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago November 23, 2022
Trace, Dusting, Skiff
Summary
A weak storm has brought a few light snow showers to the area this morning. A warm and dry holiday with a slight chance for a brush-by system this weekend. A more significant storm possible to start next week.
Short Term Forecast
Our weak, brushing system moved through this morning. Some light snow along the Wasatch Front and in the mountains but accumulations were very minimal. No resorts are reporting any snow, but I can see on webcams that we've been dusted with a touch of fresh snow. Probably not going to do anything other than offer up some slick spots on the drive.
We should clear out later today with a warm and dry Thursday and Friday under high pressure. This weekend, we should stay mostly dry, but we are going to have a weak storm brushing us again to the north. We could see some light snow late Saturday into Sunday morning in far northern Utah -- again, not expecting any accumulation.
Things get more interesting by Monday. Models have been taking a more direct route for this system into the Great Basin rather than "digging" it down into California. This means the storm is going to arrive a bit faster. We should see snow develop on Monday and likely continue into Monday night. With snow showers then lingering into Tuesday.
As for totals, we are starting to get more clarity on this too. GEFS ensembles are still all over the place, showing anywhere from 0.7" to 2.0" of liquid:
We have a mean of around 1.5" in the upper Wasatch. That is nicely in line with the NBM output:
Early indications are that Northern Utah mountains could see a foot or more if this trend holds. It would be a nice way to end November.
Extended Forecast
Later next week is a toss-up at this point. The GFS brings another system into the region later next week. The Euro is less inclined. When I look at the individual ensembles, about half show additional storm energy in the first few days of December, while the other half dry us out again. All we can do is keep an eye on this until we get more consensus.
Evan | OpenSnow