This storm remains very difficult to forecast, and I honestly have no idea how Friday night’s snowfall will turn out. I have more confidence in drier weather for Saturday through early Sunday, with snowfall returning from Sunday midday through Monday afternoon. Following the storm, we’ll be dry for most of next week with another storm possible around the weekend of December 5-6th.
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I am writing this update on Friday night as I’m heading out early to get some turns in on Saturday morning.
You and I would think that since I am writing a forecast at 11pm Friday night, I would have a good handle on the weather situation for Friday night. In this case, that would be a mistaken belief.
Earlier on Friday morning, most weather models were in agreement concerning their forecast for Friday night. But now, looking at real-time webcams, satellite images, and radar animations, real life is looking different than the model’s predictions and I honestly have near zero confidence in how the snow will turn out tonight. I am sticking with my 1-3 inch forecast for most areas, with more around Wolf Creek, and by the time that most of you read this update, we’ll know how that forecast worked out.
This storm is difficult to forecast because it is in a stationary wobble instead of consistent motion. It’s harder to forecast the movement of something that is stationary, compared with something that is moving steadily from point A to point B.
That said, I do have decent confidence that we’ll see a lull in the snow on Saturday and Saturday night, and then another round of moderate snow should return starting on Sunday midday and continue through Monday. This next round of snow will initially favor the southern and central mountains on Sunday, with the heavier snow transitioning to the northern mountains (roughly from Aspen north to I-70 and Steamboat) on Sunday night and Monday. If you’re looking for the next best powder day, I’d say focus on Monday in the central and northern mountains.
After this storm finally moves away on Tuesday, we should stay dry through the end of the week, then another storm will likely bring snow to the southern mountains on Saturday and Sunday, December 5-6th. This storm may track far enough north to bring snow to the central and northern mountains as well, but the odds are highly tilted toward most of the snow staying in southern Colorado and New Mexico.
Thanks for reading and have a great Saturday!