Although the last Atmospheric River has come and gone, the tallies of precipitation are still underway. Using the data from DWP for the Mammoth Pass Snow Course, we find ourselves in historic territory water wise for the end of the month of February. Although we still have two more months to go, even normal precipitation for the next two months suggests that the records for the most water up on Mammoth Pass will be shattered.
Mammoth's Snowiest Season Yet!
Forecasters are calling this winter in Mammoth a "once-in-a-lifetime" experience! With the season total snowfall standing at 500+ inches, it's no wonder ski and snowboard enthusiasts are flocking to this California resort. Nomadness Rentals wants to make this an experience everyone can enjoy, by offering spectacular specials all season long. Details: http://opsw.co/2gmljcV
Short Term Forecast
It appears that we have one more snow producing system to deal with. It has the potential to dump up to between 12 and 18 inches over the upper elevations.
The storm has taken a decisively more easterly (drier) track and will not pick up the mid latitude low.
Although the last AR event targeted the northern Sierra, this storm will target the central and southern Sierra more. It will also be a colder storm, capable of delivering much higher snow-to-water ratios, “Lighter powder”. The timing? Saturday night through Monday night.
The forecast models, namely the European, GFS and Canadian have all come into agreement in not picking up the mid latitude low NE of Hawaii. This is in sharp contrast to what was touted earlier in the week when systems for the Gulf of AK would couple with the mid latitude systems and bring in a storm capable of 2 to 3 feet. This is not the case now.
So what the Dweebs are looking at this weekend is a period of unsettled weather with breezy to windy conditions and colder temperatures.
There will be relatively light snowfall Saturday night through Monday night in town. In that these changes are relatively new, this is just an estimate.
Best guess, I am looking at 12 to 18 inches over the crest with 6 to 10 inches by Monday evening. Again this is an estimate.
Forecast models are suggesting a longer break in the weather. One that may last a week to ten days.
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