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Monday February 3rd 2014 8:30pm MST

Summary:

Powder Alert: 6-8 inches of snow fell on southern PA

The storm that was a headache in my home market of Baltimore, just missed the metro area, but dumped on the northern suburbs. That happens to include the local ski areas and extends up into the Poconos.

 

Details:

Matching the season’s best snow

Liberty and Roundtop

Both of these locations posted 6 inch fresh powder reports and as you could imagine are 100% open and loving it.

Whtitetail wins:

The western of the three local mountains received 8 inches plus!

Snowfall reports at resorts on Monday

Western PA

Hidden Valley, Seven Springs, and Blue Knob all reported 4”

Poconos:

A general 4-8 inch snowfall was reported with the big winner of 8 inches went to Blue Mountain

Long Range:

There is a Winter Storm Watch for anther event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This one will drop a few inches of snow, then freezing rain on southern PA, but may linger all snow in the Poconos. That could end up being a big winner for them with the potential for another half foot.

Canadian Model shows an ice storm south with snow in the Poconos Wednesday morning

Sunday we get set for a large Nor’Easter. This will be a challenging system with the rain snow line. There are some early speculators pushing very high totals. It is way too early to buy into that, so don’t!

Ou snow model does look amped up as well. Here is a look of what you might find searching for Whitetail’s forecast on our page:

Snow outlook for Whitetail Mountain this week 

As appetizing as this is, I would look beyond the icy midweek only with high hopes that the weekend brings back primo action.

 

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

 

Also keep up to date via

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

Kid Weather App

If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.

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Saturday February 1st 2014 5:55am MST

Summary:

Get in while the going is good this weekend

I speak for every single ski area in the Mid Atlantic when I say the conditions are epic!  100% open with a deep base and soft powder!

That said there is a little thaw underway but an active week ahead. That will be broken up into a few systems. There was a bad rumor about a monster blizzard for next weekend, but it was exaggerated and misleading. There will be a potentially large storm to cap off the active week, but nothing like a few feet of snow. So if you had heard that, please let me add to debunking the myth.

 

Details:

Weekend warm up

Going on the rumor mill and those faithful to the Farmer’s Almanac, there will not be a snowstorm for us this weekend. It will be mild as a storm passes to our north. So temps will reach into to 40s for many ski areas, but nothing they can’t handle. In face, it might be nice to get out and not have to bundle up.

A cold front will approach us on Sunday afternoon, so there my be some rain showers in western PA, western MD, and West Virginia, but that is time to break down for the Super Bowl anyway.

Return of the cold

Storm #1: Monday

A cold front will arrive Sunday night, and then stall across the Mid Atlantic. This will lay down the groundwork for a wave of low pressure to ride along it.  As of now it looks promising to the ski areas to bring a few inches of fresh powder, but a mix of snow and ice along the I-95 cities.

Canadian GEM Model showing a storm Monday afternoon Feb 3rd. 

Storm #2: Wednesday

This storm has a track that will be slightly inland, meaning it will be warmer and more wet. While the onset could have snow, it will turn to ice in central PA and the Poconos. Western PA, western MD, and even West Virginia could turn to rain under the low pressure track itself. It should be noted that this is still up for debate. Any slight adjustment to the path could change this dramatically. A shift east would mean more snow, but a shift west would bring more rain. Either way, there will be an active first half of the week.

Canadian GEM Model: Storm on Wednesday Feb 5th

Long Range:

Next weekend does appear to bring a large storm to the eastern US. This is the one that was rumored to bring monster snowfall, but as you can see here the track appears to be too warm to promise that. Rather than get into details, we should prepare for another storm either spilt into two parts Saturday and Sunday, or combined into one larger event. There is still hope this does turn into a full out snow maker, but as of now, that appears to be an outside shot with an inland storm track.

Canadian GEM Model: Saturday February 8th

So as I said earlier, get out now while the going it good.

 

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

 

Also keep up to date via

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

Kid Weather App

If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.

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For your favorite locations

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Friday January 24th 2014 8:19am MST

Summary:

The cold will hold and more clippers bring more snow!

The Mid Atlantic is locked in an EPIC pattern. It’s colder her than out west and even much of Alaska as the coldest air is lopsided this season. This is the strongest and longest duration of cold we’ve seen since 1982.  To give you an example, my home base of Baltimore just recorded the 8th day this month when temps reached the single digits. The record is 10 days set in January of 1982 and we are poised to break that mark in this final week of the month.

What does this mean for the ski areas? Champagne Powder! That is often the bragging rights from the Rockies, but we have it here. There will be great snow making conditions, but a few natural hits on the way.

 

Details:

Saturday: Clipper #1

This appears to be a broad base for snow region wide.  It will arrive in the morning and last much of the day. With snow reaching the I-95 corridor that will only get more people in the mood for the slopes. So I expect it will be crowded, but worth it!

Snowfall outlook for Saturday Jan 25 from the Hi-Resolution NAM Model

This is a precipitation forecast from the Hi Resolution NAM model. This does a decent job in the short term. It can be expected that based on how cold the air is, this will enhance the flakes in the high terrain of WV, western MD’s Wisp, and western PA where I expect 3-6 inches of new powder.  Slightly lower amounts farther east, but southern PA and the Poconos should be stoked over a weekend, daylight snowfall of 1-3 inches. This breaks the warm weekend streak we had early this month and back in December for sure.

 

Sunday Night/Monday: Clipper #2

This will actually be a futile attempt for a slight warm up only to be followed by another arctic surge next week.  The track is farther north, which does not favor the eastern sections of the Mid Atlantic. However, a solid burst of snow in the mountains will be the precursor for more arctic air.

The Canadian Model keeps this storm too far north Monday 

 

Long Range:

Trying to keep a handle on the arctic air and any disturbances around it can be tough. Once thing for sure, much of next week will remain in the deep freeze.  The reinforcing block of the polar airmass will spill in Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures beyond that into the end of next week will range from afternoons in the teens (single digits farther west), and lows near or below zero.

Arctic Reinforcement: The GFS Model shows the upper level air highlighting the rebuilding chill Monday night after the northern clipper passes by.

Another storm? There are a few difference solutions for generating a system between next Friday and the following Tuesday. This all depends on how the arctic air behaves and dare I say, the precise location of the Polar Vortex. That should remain in eastern Canada, but it will drive the storm pattern into early February.

 Faith-in-the-Flakes*

 

Also keep up to date via

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

Kid Weather App

If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.

Get Forecasts

For your favorite locations

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Monday January 20th 2014 12:25pm MST

Summary:

Largest storm in 3 years for the Mid Atlantic... cities.

There is an arctic boundary arriving at the same time as we get a developing storm. This energy will turn the corning along the jet through Virginia and explode off of the coast.  While there is a shot for a decent amount of snow, the biggest amounts might be between metro Baltimore and Philly.  That is south and east of the ski areas.

 

Details:

This will be brief as my duties in the metro area are taking over my time, but there is good news with this storm for Tuesday January 21... It will bring moderate snow load of cold air for the rest of the week. That means more snowmaking and primo conditions on top of whatever falls.

Here is a look at my trusty Canadian GEM Model. This was the only one to see this event last week. Whle it got lost in the system, it is now back. I have to continue to trust this model and give it props.  So here is the basic timeline.... An ALL DAY TUESDAY event. 

Canadian Model Storm Track: Tuesday Jan 21, 2014

 

The southern track is a reflection of the arctic air, and the heaviest snow for our ski areas will be near the MD/PA boarder.   In fact there may be more snow at the Jersey Shore than the Poconos. Here is a look at the Hi-Resolution NAM model for precipitation. Considering the cold temps in the teens, and perhaps dropping into the single digits at the end of this event, the snow ratios coudl be 20 to 1 or higher.  That is double what we normally get and makes for sweet powder.

Precipitation from the Hi-Resolution NAM Model

So it appears there is a good chance for a 6 inch event for Roundtop, Liberty, Whitetail, Wisp, Canaan Valley, Timberline, and Snowshoe.  I would still see 3 inches or more for 7 Springs and north into the Poconos.

Lot’s to look forward to in the next few weeks, but winter is far from done.

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

 

Also keep up to date via

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

Kid Weather App

If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.

Get Forecasts

For your favorite locations

Join the Conversation!
Comments

Friday January 17th 2014 12:18pm MST

Hope floats flakes for MLK Weekend and beyond

Summary:

A series of Alberta Clippers are swinging through, which are more beneficial to the highest terrain, and can leave the eastern resorts begging for flakes.  There will be a persistent chance of snow showers, with accumulation favoring the western areas, but the first burst Friday night might pack a little more punch. Then get set for larger storms possible next week and Round 2 of the Polar Vortex

Details: 

Plain and simple: It is going to snow.  This is a clipper after all, so it doesn’t have a ton of moisture. But in some places like Snowshoe, all you have to do is sneeze sometimes, and a few inches will fall on the summit (it is 4848’).  Here is a look at potential total accumulation from the Hi-Resolution NAM Model. This is melted equivalent. But essentially the darker shading you can expect 1-3 inches of fluffy snow to fall. The temperatures will be colder to support the drier flakes on the back end. 

Hi-Res NAM accumulated precipitation/snowfall by Saturday morning at 7 am

Notice that this clips most of the local ski areas up through the Poconos as well. Even a dusting or more could stick in the metro areas, which after all is what gets more people in the mood to make the drive.

The other issue tonight will be the potential for thunder. There are two main pieces of energy in the jet stream, as seen here. This helps with lift and supports snow squalls. I think the main area could clip Wisp and 7
Springs where the higher terrain might add more lift to give enhanced action.  If this happens, then forget the 1-3 inches since it could double.

NAM vorticity or spin/energy in the jet stream at 500mb

There is another clipper on the way for Sunday morning. This appears to be farther south, with a direct hit on West Virginia. While Wisp could get another 1-3 inches, Timberline, Canaan Valley, and Snowshoe especially might be up for an additional 3-6 inches.  This time, Wintergreen and Masanutten get in on a few inches as well.

Make sure you check out our membership privileges included snow modeling and slope cams

 

Long Range:

The Polar Vortex should make return to the Eastern US by the end of the month.

I have long advertised my theory of Atmospheric Memory for readers on my Facebook Page. It is a cycle or weather pattern that tends to repeat itself, especially with extreme events, and has proven itself many times over. Storms tend to follow similar paths, and can impact the same areas with the same intensity. This is also true with overall patterns in the jet stream. So after the first visit of the Polar Vortex, there was reason to believe the wobbling of the core of the coldest air would eventually work it’s way back down south to the US.

We have passed the January thaw, and the progressive pattern will be growing colder, starting next week.  Despite questions of the storms next week, the trough in the jet stream will get locked over the eastern US and keep us cold. That is great for Lake Effect snow showers and man-made snow.

Here is the look at the peak of this pattern. January 28th is still over a week away, but the GEFS Ensemble mean (a the average of a bunch of model variations) points to this outlook with the Polar Vortex over northern NY State and Lake Ontario. If so, any additional snowpack on the ground would help support an even colder array of temperatures compared to the last visit. Remember last time came after a thaw. While many slopes held their snow, the surroundings east of I-81 was patchy or just plain brown.

Polar Vortex Round 2: The GEFS look at January 28th, after about a 6 day build up of cold air shots to the eastern US. With more snow cover, this could be colder than the last invasion.

 

Lot’s to look forward to in the next few weeks, but winter is far from done.

Faith-in-the-Flakes*

 

Also keep up to date via

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

Kid Weather App

If you have a kid who loves the weather, check out my Kid Weather App that I made with my oldest son. It’s won a Parents Choice Award, been featured many times by iTunes, and even on Mashable’s Top 10 Apps to get kids interested in science. We are available for Apple and Android devices.

 

Get Forecasts

For your favorite locations

Join the Conversation!
Comments
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