Never miss a beat! Receive The New England Daily Snow via email the moment it's written. Start your FREE OpenSnow Super Pro trial today!
Some light snow will move through tonight associated with a weak Clipper system. Lower elevations in central and northern VT and NH will see no more than a coating to an inch, while higher elevation resorts pick up another 1-3 inches. The big story though continues to be the storm coming for the middle of the week. That storm is looking even better today for interior New England with the track shifting slight north and west. Snowfall amounts will easily reach a foot at the majority of major resorts in the region, with up to about 20 inches
Another weak Clipper is swinging through as I write this, bringing some light snowfall with it. Given the light intensity of the snowfall along with the relatively warm temperatures, there won't be much if any accumulation at the low elevations in central and northern NH and VT. Some resorts may see a coating to an inch if they're lucky. At higher elevations though, expect another 1-3 inches, with resorts in northern VT seeing the upper end of that range.
Now let's get to the topic everyone wants to hear about...the midweek storm. There's no doubt about it now, this storm is coming and it's going to be a good one. If anything, the models look even better today, trending the track of the storm slightly further north and west. Here's the GFS and NAM model respectively for 1 a.m. on Thursday morning:
Of course, this track won't be better for everyone. A number of resorts closer to the coast that were going to see all snow will now see a mix of snow and rain, with lower snowfall totals. Thankfully though, the vast majority of major resorts in the region will see all snow and will see even higher snowfall totals than it looked like yesterday. I will say though that I'm hoping that the northward and westward trend doesn't continue much more, or else more and more resorts will be looking at a mix of rain and snow.
What about snowfall amounts? Well, here's what the GFS and NAM think will fall by the time Thursday at 1 p.m. rolls around:
I think that the winner will be in the White Mountains or Western Maine. Central VT will be right up there too with all those regions seeing more than a foot of snow, with localized accumulations up to 20 inches. Resorts further north will see around a foot, but further south will see snowfall totals fall off quickly as rain mixes in and keeps accumulations down.
Snow will arrive Wednesday afternoon, but won't really pick up in intensity until after lifts close. The heaviest snow will fall overnight into early Thursday, so expect plenty of untracked powder when lifts open on Thursday. I don't expect snow densities to be extremely low or high for this one...just sort of "average" for New England.
Things still look pretty quiet (and quite cold) to end the week. There also looks like there will still be another Clipper system coming in for the weeken. This system is showing some signs of becoming a more complicated system as it moves through the region, potentially interacting with a piece of energy coming from the southern branch of the jet stream. Right now, accumulations still look to be on the light side, but it will be interesting to see how this develops. Otherwise, a storm for the middle of next week is still a possiblity, although the models are going through their usual "back and forth" as they start to figure out exactly what's going to happen.
Two rounds of light snow will get the week started. The first will swing through Sunday night into Monday with the second late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lower elevations may see a couple inches at most, but the most dependable accumulations will be at the higher elevations. Otherwise, all my attention is on the midweek storm. Confidence in the probability of this storm has aken a huge turn over the last 48 hours as the forecasting models have all begun to come to a consensus.
Two weak Clipper systems are on their way for Monday and Tuesday. The first storm will swing through Sunday night into Monday. Low elevations could see as much as 1-3 inches depending on where the strongest snow showers and snow squalls track. Unfortunately though, most low elevation resorts will only see a coating to an inch. The higher elevation resorts in the north on the other hand (Jay, Stowe, Bretton Woods, Wildcat, Saddleback, etc.) will see 1-3 inches for sure, with the possibility for slightly more.
After a brief break Monday afternoon, another weak Clipper arrives Tuesday night. Any snowfall will be limited to resorts in central NH and VT northward. At low elevations, only expect a coating or so, but yet again, higher elevations will see a couple of inches. Any snowfall will be pretty wet and dense though.
The other day, I mentioned that confidence was low in the possibility of a big storm for the middle of this week. I'm happy to say that confidence has gone from low to quite high in a fairly short period of time. This change has been brought about by the notable consensus from the forecasting models that has come about in the last 48 hours. When I wrote my last update, only one of the long range models was hinting at the possibility of a larger widespread snowfall. Now, pretty much every major model that forecasts out far enough is showing a major storm. Here's the GFS model for 1 a.m. on Thursday:
With the center of the low just off of Cape Cod, this is an ideal track for heavy snowfall for interior New England. Other forecasting models show slightly different tracks (the Euro takes the center slightly further west), but all show a major storm. It's a little early for firm snowfall amounts right now, but if the current track and intensity of the storm holds, there will easily be a swath of snowfall amounts up to around a foot or more through interior New England for Wednesday into Thursday.
After the mid-week storm, cold air will push in again to end out the week. This will also keep things pretty quiet into the weekend. There is another weak Clipper system showing up for the weekend, which would again bring accumulating snowfall to the higher elevations. Otherwise, I've got my eye on something bigger that's brewing for around the middle of next week.
The next weak storm will swing through Saturday night. This storm has trended a bit weaker, and even the high elevations will only see a coating to an inch. Early next week is looking a little more interesting now though with two separate Clipper systems moving through the region. The first will come on Monday and the second and stronger of the two on Tuesday. Although there continues to be a chance for lower elevations to pick up some light snow from one or both of these systems, the high elevations will undoubtedly be the winners yet again from these. Later next week, the chance for a bigger storm remains, but is still far from certain.
The weak piece of energy that I've been talking about for Saturday night will still swing through as scheduled, but may be even weaker than anticipiated. I certainly don't expect anything at all at low elevations from this one, and even the high elevation resorts will be lucky to pick up even a coating to an inch or two at most.
I mentioned that a Clipper system would be moving through for early next week. That's still the case, although now it looks like that will be end up being two separate Clipper systems. The first will come on Monday and the second on Tuesday. The second will likely be the stronger of the two, and has the best chance of finally bringing some accumulating snowfall to the lower elevations. Even if it does though, we're only talking about 1-3 inches, and that will probably only be for resorts north of the MA/NH and VT border. Otherwise, the high elevations will once again win out from these two events, with upwards of 6 inches falling over the two days.
Time to cut through some hype once again...
Yes, there is the continued chance for a bigger storm later next week. It really is just a chance folks, nothing more right now. In fact, there is more uncertainty in the two major long range forecasting models (the GFS and the Euro) today than there was yesterday. At least for a time yesterday, both showed a strong coastal system, but today the GFS has diverged to a weak storm that stays south and tracks out to sea, while the European has stayed with the bigger (and better!) solution.
I'm just as anxious to see a bigger storm as the rest of you, but I'm not going to make this out to be anything more than it is for right now...an interesting event that deserves keeping a close eye on to see how it develops over the next couple of days before starting to either get excited, or come to terms with another near miss.
Any small chance there was for a significant storm this weekend is now completely gone. However, there will still be a weak storm that moves through Saturday night, only bringing accumulating snow to the high elevations. A quick moving Clipper system will move through early next week and could bring some widespread snowfall to the region, albeit on the light side for sure. Then later next week, I'm still keeping my eye on the possibility of a bigger coastal storm.
The phasing needed for a big storm this weekend just isn't going to happen. Not that I've had any confidence at all that it would for the last several days, but it never hurts to hold out hope. The southern piece of energy is moving through the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic right now, and then because of the lack of phasing with the weak northern storm that is lagging behind, the coastal system will head out to sea. It's not all bad news though, as that weak northern storm will eventually move through Saturday evening and into the night. There won't be any widespread snowfall from this one, but the high elevation resorts in the north will likely get at least 1-3 inches of new snow.
A Clipper system is now showing up in the forecasting models for early next week. As is typical of these systems, it will be quick moving and fairly weak, but at the same time looks as though it has potential to bring some light accumulating snowfall to a relatively large area. I do mean light though, with generally 1-3 inches falling, or perhaps a small area of 2-4 inch accumulations. Also, the typical high elevations will likely see higher snowfall totals, with up to 6 inches at those resorts.
The storm that I mentioned in my last post is still definitely one to keep an eye on, especially with today's runs of the forecasting models trending towards a pretty significant coastal storm around the middle of next week. As always when we're roughly a week out from an event like this, lots can and will change between now and then. For right now, let's hope that we can at least start to see some consistency from the model runs from day to day.
Head for the hills! Well, actually the mountains...and the biggest ones at that. Some of the only accumulating snowfall that New England is likely to see this week will come tonight into Wednesday as a weak storm moves through. Anything more than a coating or so will only fall in the high elevations in the north where up to 4 inches will accumulate by the time things taper by Wednesday afternoon. The potential storm for the end of the week is looking less likely with each passing day, but (potentially) on the bright side, temperatures are looking more seasonable by the weekend.
A weak storm will move in tonight and stick around through most of the day tomorrow. The place to be for this one will be the higher elevation resorts in the north. These resorts are the only places that will see more than a coating to an inch, with up to 4 inches falling. The resorts that are most likely to see the highest amounts include Jay, Stowe, and Mad River. Getting in on the snow, but not likely to see as much are Sugarbush, Whiteface, Bretton Woods, Wildcat, and Saddelback.
The potential for a more significant storm later in the week is looking less and less likely at this point. In fact, my chances of anything widespread is so low that I'm willing to rule it out at this point. Bascially, there just isn't the "phasing" happening that would need to for a stronger storm. This just means that the weak storm coming out of the north isn't going to interact with the stronger storm from the south to form a coastal system that gives us the goods. There is however still an opportunity for the higher elevations to pick up a few more inches sometime around Saturday as the weaker northern feature moves through.
The only good news I have in the long range (and it's only good news for some people) is that temperatures will become much more seasonable by the weekend. Look for highs in the mid to upper 30's in the north, with 40's in the south. Don't get too used to it though, as some cooler air moves back in for early next week, but not as cold as it has been.
Otherwise, the next system to keep an eye on is for around Tuesday of next week. However, as of right now, the models aren't showing the phasing needed to create a good storm in this case either.