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The main sheild of precipitation is coming in a little slower than anticipated. Some mixed precip fell at lower elevations of northern NY, VT, NH, and ME this morning, but not more than a coating to an inch. At higher elevations, northern Vermont has done the best so far with up to 6 inches being reported.
Not much change to my thinking for elevations above 2,000 feet in the north, although I do think there is a better chance of a period of mixed precipitation later today and early tomorrow.
However, at lower elevations in the north, I don't think we'll see much accumulating frozen precipitation anymore. At most, an inch or two of sleet, snow, and freezing rain will add up. As I mentioned yesterday though, pretty much the only resorts still operating are at higher elevations, so this probably won't matter much to folks looking to get in some skiing.
Well, I'm already running into some problems with my forecast. The first round of precipitation is pushing into central New York, Vermont and New Hampshire right now. According to radar, snow is falling over central New York and Vermont. Killington has already posted an update of Facebook confirming that, at least at their elevation, it is indeed snowing.
There may be a lull later this evening between this first round of precipitation and the main event. I'll be keeping an eye on things...
I'm not going to lie, the forecast for the next couple of days is going to be tough. As of Tuesday, I really thought that only higher elevations (above 2,000 feet) in the north had a chance at any accumulating snowfall. Now, I'm not so sure.
So lfirst let's talk about those higher elevations, especially because, for the most part, these are the only resorts left operating in New England. Snow will come in tonight, and last through the day Friday and into Saturday morning. Showers will continue into the day on Saturday before tapering off by the evening. Although I expect elevations above 2,000 feet to stay mostly snow through the event, there could be some mixing with sleet or freezing rain for a time during the day tomorrow, or late tomorrow night, and the snow that does fall will be pretty wet and heavy. Accumulations will vary widely across these resorts, anywhere from 2-4 inches all the way up to a foot or even more. I think the best chance for hitting the higher end of those totals will be in northern Vermont at resorts like Jay Peak and Stowe. I also think that resorts like Sugarloaf and Saddleback have a good chance at the higher end of that range.
For the lower elevations, precipitation will start as snow tonight and into tomorrow morning. During the day tomorrow, expect a changeover to a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain. That mix will last into Friday night before steady precipitation tapers off by daybreak Saturday. Accumulating frozen precipitation will fall from the central portions of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine northward. I think that accumulations will rainge from a couple of inches to as much as 6 inches in places that manage to stay mainly snow. Snow will definitely be wet and heavy.
I'll try to update as I can tonight and through tomorrow. Bottom line: if you want to ski some fresh snow over the next couple days, head northward, and head up!
The first storm of the week will pass by to the north tonight. This will bring some rain showers and perhaps a steadier period of rain for the far north. The passing of this system will also bring in much warmer for the beginning of the work week, with temperatures pushing to the 60 degree mark in a lot of locations.
The more seasonable tempertures will continue through the week, with a second storm tracking to our west on Tuesday. This will bring some more rain showers and a more widespread period of steadier rain.
The storm for the end of the week also still looks warm for the most part, although the longer range forecasting models are indicating that there could be some snow at higher elevations on Saturday. We'll see how that develops as we go through the week.
Although a number of resorts across New England will call today their last day of the season. I'm heading out to Attitash shortly after writing this to get my farewell runs for the 2012-2013 season there. Quite a few are going to remain open too though, so don't put those skis away quite yet. This week will see some of the first real spring skiing a lot of resorts have seen so far this year!
After yet another round of snow for the northern high elevation resorts on Friday, it looks like Spring is finally going to hit in full force after the weekend.
The first of several storms this coming week will swing through late Sunday and into Monday. As the center of this storm passes by to our north, rain showers will overspread the region and there's a good chance for a few periods of steadier rain. The second storm will take a very similar track around Tuesday or Wednesday, if not just a little further south. This track will likely mean a little more precipitation, again all in the liquid form though. Then toward the end of the week, it looks like a larger scale storm could be winding up. Yet again though, it looks like it's going to be a warm one for all areas of the region and at all elevations.
It's been a heck of run through March and into early April, but it definitely looks like that luck is going to run out. As we move further and further into Spring, it simply gets harder and harder for the atmosphere to produce snowfall, especially at lower elevations. Look on the bright side though; it's been a great season, and with the fantastic weather we've been having lately, there's still lots of snow at the higher elevation resorts to last for several more weeks!