Snow will spread into the region later tonight and will continue all the way through the day tomorrow and even into tomorrow night for some locations. Snowfall amounts will generally be moderate to heavy, with the heaviest amounts falling over central Maine. There's still another chance for more snow early next week, although the trend of the track of that storm is not promising.
No big changes in thinking on our next storm. This Alberta Clipper storm will spread light snow in later tonight from west to east. Snowfall rates will become more moderate tomorrow morning and early tomorrow afternoon. Then snow will then lull in NH and Western Maine while the storm heads into the Gulf of Maine, reorganizes and intensifies. Snow will then pick back up in intensity for the Whites, Western Maine and especially in Central Maine and continue into Friday night.
Here are my thoughts on snowfall totals through Saturday morning:
- Central Maine (Titcomb, Eaton, etc.): 8-14"
- Western Maine (Sugarloaf, Saddleback, Sunday River, etc.): 6-12"
- White Mountains (Cannon, Bretton Woods, Attitash, Wildcat, etc.): 6-12" -- lower end of the range for western Whites, higher end for eastern
- Central and Western NH (Gunstock, Ragged, Dartmouth Skiway, etc.): 4-10" -- lower end of the range western, higher end central
- Southern NH (Crotched, Pats Peak, etc.): 2-4"
I have a much higher confidence in the first round of snow that will come with this storm during the day tomorrow before it heads offshore. I have a much lower confidence in the amount of snow that falls later tomorrow and into Friday night. This is because of a combination of the tight snowfall gradient that we will see with this storm and the subsequent effect that even small changes in the track of the storm will have on where that gradient falls.
Snow densities will be higher with this storm than they were with the "Blizzard of 2015". Of course, that's not hard to do given how low density that snow was. With that said, this is not a marginal even with regards to rain vs. snow, so we're not going to be looking at heavy wet cement here. Just expect snow densities more typical of New England than of Utah.
As the storm departs on Saturday, it will intensify in the Canadian Maritimes. This will bring in plenty of cold air on a strong NW wind, making Saturday a very cold and breezy day. Sunday will see less wind, but still be quite cold.
The potential storm for early next week isn't looking as likely given recent trends in model data. The trend over the last 24-36 hours has considerably flattened the track of the storm. By this, I mean that instead of tracking through the Mid-Atlantic, off the coast, and then hookup northward up the coast, it is now just tracking through the Mid-Atlantic and then straight out to sea. It's still too early to call this one a dud yet, so let's see how things change once the shorter range models get a hold of the system.