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Saturday April 19th 2014 6:55pm MDT

Summary:

Sunday will be sunny and warm, but big changes coming by Tuesday.  We will see much colder air and snow Tuesday with several inches possible on the mountains.  After a break Wednesday into Thursday a stronger system could move in later Friday with snow into next weekend.

Details:

Not much change from the discussion yesterday.  The models are slightly wetter for Tuesday but not much.  The precip will push in Monday night with snow levels above 7000 ft. dropping quickly below lake level by Tuesday morning.  Plenty of cold air will pour in with this cold trough Tuesday.  We could see a coating to an inch or two of snow at lake level Monday night before the sun comes up Tuesday morning, but not on the warm roads.  On the mountains above 7000 ft. the models have enough liquid through Tuesday for 3-6  inches of snow.  The highest amounts should be West of the lake along the crest.  The highest peaks could have slightly more.  Here is the latest GFS precip forecast through Tuesday.

GFS model

We dry out Wednesday and could see temperatures back into the 60's at lake level by Thursday.  The ridge is out near 160w by Friday which may allow another cold trough to dig down off and along the West Coast.  This one may be able to pull in more moisture than the system Tuesday.  We could see snow begin to fall later Friday into Saturday.  On the mountains we could see a foot or more of snow, but it's a little early to talk snowfall amounts a week away.  

The models diverge a little next weekend with the track of second system Sunday into Monday.   The Canadian and European models keep the snow going as the next system brings in another decent shot of snow.  The GFS is now trending further North with the second system next weekend.  We will keep tracking the trend all week.  If the Canadian is correct and we see back to back strong waves next weekend we could see several feet of snow on the mountains.  Here is the precip forecast through Monday the 28th on the Canadian model.  It has 5+ inches of liquid along the crest.

Canadian

One last big powder weekend for a few resorts still open next weekend?  Confidence is building, but still a little wary with it being Spring and the models being fickle with the change in the seasons even a week out.

Long-Range:

It looks like Spring may return after next weekend.  The climate models do have precip for May so it may not stay completely dry.  We do tend to get snow more times than not on Memorial Day weekend.  Then summer usually arrives in June.

May not post tomorrow with all the holiday festivities....Happy Easter for those celebrating!  BA

 

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Friday April 18th 2014 9:20pm MDT

Summary:

A nice weekend with sun and high's in the 60's.  A cold system pushes in for Tuesday with much colder air and light snow.  A significant snow storm is possible next weekend.

Details:

We saw some light rain showers this afternoon and evening along the crest.  The rest of the weekend should be beautiful with high in the 60's.

A big change is in store by Tuesday as a cold trough drops into CA.  We will see high temps only in the 30's with light snow showers.  On the mountains we could see a few inches of accumulation.  Along the crest West of the lake we could see 3-6 inches of snow.

The ridge in the Pacific shifts closer towards the West Coast Thursday with a break in the action into Friday.  Then the ridge retrogrades further West and blocking forms from Western Canada up into Alaska.  That will help to setup the pattern of a cold trough down the West Coast and storms pushed furthern South into CA.  We could see two fairly strong systems for this time of year next weekend if the current model trends continue.  There is good agreement among the forecast models right now that next weekend is cold and snow with significant snowfall possible.  We will be watching this closely all week.

Here is a look at the Canadian and European precip forecast through next weekend.  Both show up to 3 inches of liquid along the crest on top of what falls Tuesday.  That could be a couple feet of snow on the mountains.

Canadian

Euro

I'm not sure how many people are still paying attention, but keep those skis waxed up, we could have one more good powder day.  Squaw, Alpine, and Kirkwood are scheduled to be open next weekend.  This is still just over a week out it could change, but something to pay close attention to all week.

Stay tuned...BA

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Thursday April 17th 2014 10:28am MDT

Summary:

Thunderstorms and rain showers possible Friday.  A nice weekend and then a big change possible next week.  We could see much colder air and some snow next Tuesday-Wednesday, and another system possible by the end of the week.

Details:

A front will be moving through to our North tonight into Friday morning.  The precip from this front will stay to our North.  A low coming into SoCal tomorrow will increase instability in the atmosphere.  We may see some thunderstorms or light rain showers.

The temperatures stay in the 60's at lake level and 50's on the mountains through Monday.  The sun returns for the weekend.  By Sunday the ridge is way out in the Pacific around 160w.  That will allow a cold low pressure and trough to dig down along the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska.  

The European and Canadian model runs are now more in line with the GFS in showing the cold front approaching Monday night into Tuesday morning.  We could see a few inches of snow on the mountains with the front.  Temeperatures on the mountains drop into the 30's Tuesday into Wednesday behind the cold front.  The GFS was increasing precip amounts going into Wednesday by bringing the main low into Northern CA with another round of snow.  It is further North this morning more in line with the other models.  Either way we could see scatterend snow showers around into Wednesday.  

Total snowfall amounts on the latest runs could be 3-6 inches on the mountains with slightly more along the crest.  We will continue to watch the trend on snowfall amounts as we get closer.  At lake level we could see some light accumulations if the snow falls at night.  The snow levels will be below lake level.  Here is the Canadian total precip forecast through next Wednesday which is a good representation of the average of all the models right now.

Canadian Model

Long-Range:

The ridge looks like it will stay out near 160w through the end of next week which should keep the storm door open.  Models are showing another trough digging down the West Coast towards the end of the week with snow possible into the weekend of the 25th.

Like I have been saying the past couple of weeks, we may still have another powder day or two before all the ski resorts close.

Stay tuned....BA

 

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Tuesday April 15th 2014 11:10pm MDT

Summary:

Chance for light rain Friday.  Sunny weather for the weekend.  Then a cold system approaches for next Tuesday and Wednesday.  This one could bring some snow to the mountains.

Details:

So I have started to cut back to posting every other day with the ski season winding down and the lack of snow in the forecast.  The forecast models are showing some systems for next week.  This time of the year I won't get very confident on a storm until it is within the 1 week window.  The last couple of posts I have mentioned the models showing the ridge retrograding this weekend and the possibility of some systems.  We are within 7 days of one of them so we will start to watch more closely.

The mean ridge position is off the coast and will retrograde out to around 150w by Thursday.  A system is going to move into British Columbia and the Pacific NW Friday.  The latest runs of all the models have us on the Southern edge of this system.  We should see some clouds Friday and we could see some light precip with mostly rain and high snow levels.  Amounts look very light if we do see some rain showers.

Then we clear out for what is closing weekend for many ski resorts, with highs back where they have been the past week.  The ridge stays out near 150w and a trough looks like it will try to dig down the West Coast next Tuesday-Wednesday.  The GFS and European runs have been pretty consistent in showing a cold system pushing in with this trough with snowfall for the mountains.  The Euro is a bit further North than the GFS on the track.  Not a big system but maybe some accumulating snow on the mountains.  This system is only 7 days out now so we will have to start watching more closely.  The next post Thursday will be within 5 days and if the storm is still on track we can look at potential snowfall amounts.

Long-Range:

The storm door may stay open through the end of next week with the ridge remaining well off the West Coast.  The long-range of the model runs does show the potential for another system towards the end of next week.  This one is definitely low confidence being more than a week out.

Squaw, Alpine, and Kirkwood are going to be open through the 27th so there is still a chance we see another day or 2 of fresh snow.  Alpine is saying weekends into May.  So fingers crossed we can see a little more snow before we completely end the ski season.

Stay tuned.....BA

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Sunday April 13th 2014 9:56am MDT

Summary:

Spring weather looks to continue through Easter Sunday.  Lots of sun with high's in the 50's on the mountains and 60's at lake level.

Details:

We are winding down the ski season this week.  The ridge will be sitting off the coast keeping the storm track to our North.  It is looking a little more amplified since the last post which will keep the storms a bit further North into Washington.  That will mean less of a cool down down, so temperatures should stay where they have been into next weekend.

Long-Range:

The GFS and Canadian model runs continue to show the ridge retrograding next weekend with a chance for a storm to start the following week.  There continues to be low confidence in the long-range of the models since we are into Spring, and because the models have been showing storms in the long-range and then shifting them North as we get closer.

It looks like we won't see any more snow on the ski resorts before most of them close, but we will continue to monitor for any chances of snow later in the month and into May.  

Stay tuned...BA

 

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