Cold today with some scattered snow showers this morning. Highs only the 20's. Winds could gust to 30 mph on the mountain tops. Tuesday the sun is out with highs in the 30's and light winds. That weather continues through Saturday with a warming trend into the 40's. A trough will try to push into Northern CA next Sunday with rain and snow. The forecast models are still at odds whether the precipitation will make it this far South. The week of the 6th looks dry to start. A pattern change may arrive around the 10th that could bring a return of storms.
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Short Term Forecast
There will be some lingering light snow showers around this morning, but we start to clear out from the final storm of the week.
Sunny and warming starting Tuesday into Saturday.
Two days ago we discussed how the European model was trying to push the trough further South than the GFS for next Sunday, and was showing a possible storm. Yesterday the Euro trended towards the GFS in keeping the precip just to our North. This morning it is the GFS that is now trying to push the trough further South next Sunday with some snowfall for Tahoe.
The European model is still keeping us dry for next Sunday. Looking at the ensemble height forecast model runs, the GFS is keeping the ridge in the Bering Sea next weekend instead of shifting it further West. That is helping to dig the trough further down the West Coast instead of high pressure building in stronger of CA. The Canadian model runs are showing similar to the GFS this morning.
Here is the GFS forecast for next Sunday.
I don't normally talk this much about a weak storm 6 days away that may or may not happen, but it is the rare case this Winter where this is the only storm to really talk about. So we will keep watching all week to see how far South the trough will dig, and if we can get several inches of fresh snow for sunday.
There is decent agreement on the ensemble mean runs that the ridge in the Bering Sea does shift West the week of the 6th, and a stronger ridge builds in over the West Coast. That could bring a few days that are even warmer than the dry days this week.
There is also still good agreement that the ridge may start to weaken around the 10th. The ridge may begin to shift East in the North Pacific to near the Aleutians, and the trough may start to dig along the West Coast as we go towards mid-month.
At the tail end of the operational runs the GFS is showing a weak system trying to push in around the 10th, with a stronger system possible around the 12th. So we may slowly start to transition back to a more active pattern if the forecast holds and there is a pattern change starting around the 10th with a trough digging in.
Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak
Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge
Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood
*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.
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