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We have been enjoying beautiful fall weather with some cold nights that have allowed the ski resorts to
Boreal and Mt. Rose will usually open as soon as they have enough snow to open a trail. Mt. Rose announced yesterday they have enough snow to open wizard lift to pass holder this weekend. The earliest opening day on record!
High temperatures at lake level have been in the 60's, which is average for this time of year.
We have been watching the last week of October to see if we may get any moisture from the storms that will take aim at the Pacific NW. There is a large area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, and the jet stream is going to hose the Pacific NW through next week.
We are sitting right on the fence between wet to the north and dry to the south in Tahoe. The GFS runs(below) have been keeping us just barely dry, while some of the European
If the European runs are right, we could see some rain and high elevation snow (above 9k) next week. So we will keep watching. If anything we should at least see some clouds, wind, and high temperatures cooling into the 50's.
As we get to the end of the month and into the start of November, the trend has been for a ridge to build over the West Coast again bringing back a drier pattern.
I usually try to put out my annual guess at winter snowfall by the end of October. I usually compare historical snowfall and associated patterns to what we are expecting this season, look for anything this season that could make the forecast different than the historical average and read several forecasts and discussions from prominent forecasters before finalizing my seasonal forecast.
Here is a link to my 2015 discussion where I went against the analogs and many weather outlets that were forecasting a huge winter with the "Godzilla" El Nino. A couple of forecasters had research and forecasts that tied more closely to what I thought I was seeing as well. So I put my forecast guess at 95-110% of average that fall. Just in case you are bored and want to read it again...
With this El Nino, we are dealing with a late onset as well as an El Nino that doesn't want to decide whether it will be a Modoki (central Pacific centered) event or not. I've been waiting to see how that develops as well as wait for a few more final forecasts and discussions to come out from forecasters before throwing out the seasonal guesstimate. I've posted a couple of long discussions on the upcoming season so far and will plan for another big one by the end of the month with my forecast at the end.
Here is a look at the last 3 seasons. My forecast at the end of October versus what the actuals were. Sometimes my method gets us close and sometimes not, but it is fun to try each fall.
I will have more on the upcoming winter soon. Until then let's hope we can get something going in November.
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