We saw some cooler weather the last few days. It definitely made it feel like fall, especially in the cold mornings. We will start to warm up going into the weekend with highs back into the 70's at lake level, as high pressure builds in off the coast.
A trough is going to move into the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The trend has been for it to move in further to the North, so I'm not even sure we will see cooler air move in. So the weather may stay dry with highs in the 70's through next week.
On the long-range model runs there is an area of low pressure stuck off the coast by the middle of next week.
The GFS and European models are at odds on whether or not that low moves inland the weekend of the 28th. We will keep an eye on it to see if any precip could reach the area.
The uber long-range model runs show the possibility of another low off the coast the first week of October.
We will keep an eye on that one as well. Heavy precip is not common this time of year, not until later in October. But these cut-off lows could bring in some moisture and possibly the first dusting on the mountains. So I'll keep watching for the first snowfall.
Overall the climate models show a dry October. The CFSv2 has the first chance of precip around the 3rd week of October.
The long-range models are not very reliable, less so the further out they go. The CFSv2 has below average precip for CA through January.
Then it has above average precipitation starting in February.
We will have to see when and if this winter gets started with big storms. We are still waiting to see how the El Nino and the rest of the ocean temps setup this fall. The ENSO region sea surface temps did rise again this week, but still not into weak El Nino territory yet.
The forecast for the MJO activity is for it to increase over the next 2 weeks and to move East through the Pacific. We will have to see if that helps to push more warm water East to strengthen the El Nino conditions.
We will also be able to look at more winter forecasts that will be coming out in October. For now, we will enjoy the nice weather into October and keep watching for any signs of the first snowfall.
We finally made it home yesterday! It is bittersweet as we will miss the road, but it's nice to be back in the house.
Over the past week, we left New Mexico and continued into Arizona and Nevada. The first stop was Saguaro National Park. It's not a big park, but it is split into 2 pieces on either side of Tucson. The main feature of the park is the forest of big cacti.
We did some hiking but there was the limiting factor of a heat wave with temperatures over 100 degrees. We camped at the base of the Catalina Mountains.
From there we drove North towards I-40. We drove through a beautiful canyon on the way up to the Petrified Forest National Park.
At the park, we drove through the Painted Desert...
and then spent the afternoon stopping off at various spots through the Petrified Forest and hiking trails.
That night we camped in a cool older campground from the Route 66 era. The next morning we got up early and were at the Meteor Crater Landmark in time for the opening.
It was interesting to learn the Teddy Roosevelt was told this was a volcano, which is why he never made it a National Park. It wasn't verified as a meteor crater until later.
From there it was a short drive to spend the rest of the day hiking around and exploring the Grand Canyon.
I'm looking forward to going back when the kids are older and able to do a lot more hiking. I want to explore the bottom. The youngest was a limiting factor in how much we were able to hike in all the parks this summer, but she's getting stronger!
Our original plan was to spend 4 days relaxing at Lake Mead this past weekend to unwind from the trip. After spending 1 day in 107 degrees with a hot wind we had to change our plans. We did spend the day at the lake swimming. Then on Sunday, we drove up to Mono Lake in CA to spend our last couple days. A big difference with temperatures in the 70's!
We arrived home yesterday afternoon. We Since the 2nd week of July we drove 12,500 miles through 33 states and explored 24 national parks. That leaves 34 to go. The plan right now is to explore CO, UT, and CA next summer through 16 parks. I hope you have enjoyed following along this summer!
It's good to be back in the home office with the computer in front of me instead of the steering wheel. It's time for storm
For us here at OpenSnow, we will be launching updates on the website and the app as we head into the season. For next Summer, we plan to launch the new OpenSummit site and my plan is to move my hiking/travel blog I added this summer over to the new summer site.
As always we love to get your input. Please feel free to comment below or to email us at [email protected] if you have feedback. We can't do all the suggestions but we like to read them all.
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