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Good news over the past day or two as the system approaching Thursday now appears that it will track further North keeping the precip just to our North. The same with the Sunday system. We will still see a cool trough though with breezy conditions and cool temperatures through the weekend. Highs will only be in the 50's Wed-Thu and then around 60 through the weekend.
The systems for the middle and end of next week are still trending further South. We will stay in the cool pattern with a chance for rain and high elevation snow with each system.
Starting next weekend it now looks like another pattern change may take place with a ridge building over the West and a heat wave starting for CA. We may go quickly into summer mode the first week of June.
With the vacation I almost forgot the April recap. April was similar to March with 50% of average precip for the Tahoe Basin and temperatures 1.8 degrees above average for the month. That brings us down to 76% of average precip YTD for the water year. The good news is that through 3 weeks in May we are running around 150% of average precip for the month. BA
Today will be the last warm day before we undergo a pattern change that may last a while. To quote the NWS today....
"INTERESTINGLY, ALL THE MODELS SHOW A COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. IT LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE A WINTER PATTERN THAN LATE MAY, ALBEIT NOT AS COLD."
We have seen this coming now for a couple of weeks. Temperatures should stay in the 50's for most locations wed-fri behind the cold front. It looks like the best chance for precip is Thursday into Thursday night. Snow levels will be close to lake level so you may see some snow but not expecting any accumulations at lake level.
We may see a break Friday and Saturday with sun as we head into the Memorial day weekend as we are between two waves of moisture. Sunday into Monday we will see another increased chance of rain and high elevation snow with the next wave.
The trough looks like it may hang around the West Coast through next week or longer. That will keep us in a cool and unsettled pattern. Why couldn't we have this pattern 2-4 months ago? BA
The winds will be picking up today as a cool trough and low pressure approach the West Coast. We should see moisture increase with a chance of rain on Thursday. There is a better chance for steady rain Thursday night into Friday morning.
Snow levels Will start around or just above 8000 ft. on Thursday. The GFS has them lowering down near 7000 ft. Thursday night. We may see a dusting on the hills Friday morning and a few inches of snow above 8000 ft.
Things will warm up again over the weekend into next week before another trough starts to carve out along the West Coast. This time the trough may stick around for several days as low pressure digs slowly down the West Coast. The European has colder temps with rain and high elevation snow next Friday into Memorial day weekend. The GFS keeps most of the precip just to our North but has colder and unsettled weather going into Memorial Day weekend.
Right now the best chance for a nice day over the long weekend looks to be on Memorial Day Monday. Colder air and precip for Memorial Day weekend is becoming a common occurrence for us the last several years. Interestingly the pattern we would have wanted for the Winter is now setting up for us here in May. The block is shifting from Eastern to Canada to Western Canada, and the ridge position is retrograding in the Eastern Pacific. That pattern keeps a trough with cooler air and unsettled weather around the West Coast until it flips. BA
The weather was great this weekend with lots of sun and 70's. We are going to see a pattern change towards the end of this week. Expect a chance of showers with temperatures cooling down at least 10 degrees by Friday.
Watching a more significant system (for this time of year) for the end of next week. Hoping it's not a cool and wet Memorial Day weekend but those seem to be the rule not the exception in Tahoe.
I'll update if it looks like we could see some accumulating snow on the mountains. BA
It is a cold and wet/white morning here in Tahoe. I woke up to a coating of snow at the house here at 6700 ft. There have been big flakes mixing in with the rain here in Olympic Valley all morning with temperatures in the mid 30's. A heavy band of precip has been working its way from South to North across the basin this morning. Areas South of the lake picked up several inches of snow above 7000 ft.
It looks like Sierra picked up at least 6 inches this morning up top on the web cam.
The showers will be around into Tuesday. We could see several more inches of snow on the mountains with snow levels coming down close to lake level again tonight. On Tuesday the snow levels will rise above 8000 ft. again as the cold center of the low pressure moves East of the area. Scattered showers could last into Wednesday.
We start to warm up and dry out on Thursday with sunny skies and warming temps into the weekend.
There is another storm that will move into the Pacific NW the beginning of next week. Right now it looks like the precip will stay to our North, but we could see a little wind and slightly cooler temps.
There could be another chance for rain and cooler temps around the 22nd as another trough if forecasted to approach the West Coast.
Overall the weather looks pretty nice the next couple of weeks after this current storm. There will be fresh snow above 8000 ft. if you are up for a hike today and tomorrow. BA