Our storm is pushing in with a cold front sweeping thru Northern Utah today. Snow will spread south today into tonight with good accumulation. Second half of the system tomorrow thru Tuesday will be a very cold northwest flow. Significant accumulations are likely.
Kids Ski Free in Sun Valley
Short Term Forecast
Storm is currently pushing into the region with a cold front that will enter far northern Utah this morning and slowly work its way south thru the day. Heavy snow ahead of, along, and behind the cold front is expected. Snow is already falling at Beaver Mountain and is right now spreading to Powder Mountain. Here is a current look at radar, showing precip filling in up north already:
By late morning it should reach the SLC/Cottonwood/PC area. The cold front will push thru in the afternoon with heavy snow likely. Today should be a last chair, best chair kind of day.
Snow continues into tonight. Once the cold front is thru the region later tonight, there could be a break in the action. Eventually, the flow will turn northwesterly as the axis of the trough moves thru and east of the area. As we know, northwesterly flows can really create additional accumulation in the mountains of Utah, particularly areas like the Cottonwood canyons. This NW flow last into Tuesday. Here are the forecasted amounts from the GFS model for this storm:
Pink areas is where a foot or more of snow is likely. Light pink, such as the area around the Cottonwoods dot, suggests up to 2 feet of snowfall. If we look at the ensembles from the GFS:
We see most GFS (dark green) ensembles in the 1.3-1.6" of liquid range. At 15:1 ratios, that would mean about 20-30" of snow. We could see even higher ratios.
Overall, this storm is about potential. I think it will for sure be a good storm as the front is strong and slow moving and cold. The wildcard, as it often is, is the NW flow. How productive will it be? If we can get something similar to what we saw last Thursday, then I think we'll all be basking in powder glory and Monday and Tuesday. Right now, I think 10-20" for most resorts is a good forecast. Southern Utah in the 5-10" range. Cottonwoods could see higher amounts with 2 feet or more possible IF we get lucky with that NW flow.
Too much going on in the short range to focus on the long-range but we should have at least chances for snow next weekend into the following week. I'll take deeper look at that once this storm is done.
Evan | OpenSnow
P.S. I'm in Ogden Valley right now where it is 49F and spitting rain. Once the front gets here, the bottom is going to drop temperature-wise. It should be in the 20s by later this morning with snow.