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Quick update this morning...
We are now clear and will warm up rapidly today and tomorrow for very Spring-like weather. This will last through Sunday and into Monday. Clouds will increase Monday morning ahead of the next system. Snow will move into the high elevations by Monday evening. Snow levels will drop from 7,000 feet down to below 5,000 feet Monday night. We should gradually start to clear out on Tuesday. Right now, Tuesday looks like it could have some fresh snow and be a very good ski day. 4-8" is the current forecast....
Ridging still looking likely for the rest of next week...
Evan | OpenSnow
3-6" of snow fell on most Utah resorts overnight. Scattered snow showers will continue today with minimal additional accumulations. Warm and sunny this weekend before our next system moves in late Monday into Tuesday.
3-6" being reported overnight around the Wasatch. Storm had a difficult time getting organized last night and we never quite saw the prolonged period of heavy snow I was hoping for. A few more snow showers today could bump us up right into the 4-8" range that was forecasted, but I think it's safe to say most of the reports will be on the low end of what models were suggesting. That makes two systems this week that have ended up being slight disappointments -- both of which were fast moving cold fronts out of the northwest. Of course, last week/weekend we had two storms that both overproduced. So like I always say, it always evens out in the end.
After a few additional snow showers during the day today, it looks like we'll be dry and warm throughout the weekend with very Spring-like conditions in place.
Clouds will increase during the day Monday ahead of the next system which drops into the area Monday night into Tuesday. This system looks very similar to the past two systems we've had, so right now I'm not confident enough to say anything more than 3-6"... but hopefully this one works out a bit better for us.
High pressure ridging starts again Wednesday of next week. GFS and EC both suggesting that a very weak system could drop in around Saturday, March 15 -- but otherwise, we look to stay in a warm and dry pattern for awhile. Still some suggestions of a deeper trough digging into the Western US around March 18 or so.... We'll keep an eye on that.
Evan | OpenSnow
Another quick-moving storm is going to enter the region today with snow developing in far northern Utah this morning and spreading south into the Central Wasatch by this afternoon. Heavy snow is possible this evening before turning showery overnight. Accumulations of 4-8" with up to 12" in favored locations is likely. Dry and mild weather this weekend -- next system timing for Monday night into Tuesday of next week.
We currently have our next system moving into the area out of the northwest. You can see the increase in moisture on this enhanced satellite loop:
Precipitation is already beginning up near the Idaho border and will make its way south throughout the day, reaching SLC/PC area during the afternoon. Snow will likely be heavy at times this evening above 7,000 feet before turning showery overnight. Snow levels will start out high, near 6,500-7,000 ft before lowering quickly tonight to bench level 5,000-5,500 feet. 4-8" is likely above 7,000 ft with perhaps up to a foot in favored locations if we get lucky. Most of which will fall after lift closing today, so tomorrow's skiing/riding should be great!
This weekend will feature ridging and warm temperatures once again. Very Spring-like! Next system moving in late Monday into Tuesday. This system looks similar to its predecessors as a fast moving cold front that could drop 4-8" with perhaps more if things come together just right. Still plenty of time to fine tune amounts before this system arrives.
After Tuesday of next week, it looks like we ridge up for a more extended period. We really haven't seen more than 5 days of ridging since January, so it's about time we had a more extended break. This ridge looks to hold firm for at least a week. Here is a look at forecasted height anomalies for March 16:
Strong high pressure over the Western US...
However, both the GFS and ECMWF show this high pressure breaking down starting around March 18. Here is a look at the same height anomaly map for March 20:
Now a deep trough has developed over the West...
While anything this far out is far from certain ("fantasy land" as it's known), we can take a general impression that this won't be the same 2+ week break we saw in January.
Evan | OpenSnow
Mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures today. Thursday will feature increasing clouds ahead of the next system which moves in Thursday evening. 6-12″ of snow is possible above 7,000 feet with this system. Friday powder day! Warm and dry weather returns for the weekend.
Yesterday’s system moved through quickly as expected, but lost a lot of energy as the front moved south. So while it snowed in the central Wasatch for several hours yesterday, the snowfall rates never really exceeded more than .5″/hour. Resorts up north that saw most of their snow before the front weakened did well. Powder Mountain reporting 9″ of new snow today. Snowbasin at 6″. Reports in the Cottonwood range from 2-5″.
Warm and mostly sunny weather today with increasing clouds on Thursday. It looks like snow may start to fall in the high elevations up near the Idaho border as early as late morning tomorrow and slowly work its way south through the day, reaching the SLC region by evening. Main front will bring snow to the mountain for a good part of Thursday night before instability showers continue during the day on Friday.
Snow levels will start high, at or above 6,500 feet, but should lower behind the front to near valley floors by Friday morning. This will lead to a right-side-up storm with more typical Utah fluff at the tail end. I think 4-8″ of snow is likely by Friday morning with an additional 2-4″ during the day Friday for storm totals of 6-12″.
We dry out again and warm up rapidly for a nice Spring-like weekend. The next storm looks like it will move in either late Monday or early Tuesday. Doesn’t look overly strong but another quick shot at accumulating snow is likely.
Models still all over the place in the long range. GFS is now trying to build an amplified ridge over the west coast that may cause cold, weak systems to drop into the area. The EC’s latest run suggests a more zonal (flat) flow with stronger storms possible around mid-month. We will have to just continue to wait and see if any agreement forms.
Evan | OpenSnow
Storm system entering the area this Tuesday morning will bring a quick 4-8" of snow to the mountains above 7,000 today before clearing out this evening. Break on Wednesday and most of Thursday before the next system moves in Thursday night for a potential Friday powder day. Upcoming weekend looks dry and warm.
We are in a very Spring-like pattern currently with progressive systems moving quickly through the area, dropping moderate amounts of snow. We then warm up rapidly behind the departing systems. This pattern looks to continue through the next 7-10 days.
First system is just now entering northern Utah this morning. As seen here on the latest radar:
Snow has already been falling for a couple hours (as of 6 AM) up in the far northern Wasatch with rain below 7,000 feet. This precipitation will sag south just in time for the morning commute around the SLC area. Luckily, most precipitation should be rain below 7,000 feet. Snow will fall in the high elevations through the morning and into the afternoon. Post-frontal airmass this afternoon will destabilize quickly with a good chance for a few rumbles of thunder. Orographics will favor NW facing slopes and areas like the Cottonwoods. 4-8" is still the going forecast for the day's accumulations.
A break will follow this system on Wednesday and for much of Thursday with warm temps. The next system moves in late Thursday into Thursday night. The system looks fast-moving but decently strong in the latest models. I think 6-12" will be a good bet. This next system will also be slightly cooler with snow levels likely falling below 5,000 feet by Friday morning. This means fluffier snow up high... Friday should be a good powder day!
Another break this weekend with mild temperatures. A weak system looks to move into the area on Monday with another one possible late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. A generally active weather pattern continues.
Very little agreement in the models beyond the middle of next week and therefore impossible to make a good forecast. Will have to wait for some consensus...
MJO remains stuck in unfavorable phases for big storms but we seem to be beating the odds a bit with our current active pattern. MJO might end up being a total non-factor for us this winter.
Evan | OpenSnow