Mild weather will continue into Monday before we undergo some progressive changes. A trough moving in on Tuesday will bring cooler and breezy weather through the rest of the week with highs only in the 50's and only the 40's on the mountains. We could see some light snow showers around on Thursday morning from a system moving through to our North. By Easter Sunday a cold trough may dig down the West Coast bringing snow and much colder temperatures. A stronger system may drop into the trough bringing some heavier snowfall around the 8th. A much colder pattern may be on the way for week 2.
We have been talking about a change coming for at least a week now the first week of April. The change next Sunday won't be an Easter surprise if you have been following along, but it will be for most as I think they have stopped paying attention. The changes will start this Tuesday as the ridge breaks down and a trough moves into the Pacific NW. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler starting Tuesday with breezy conditions. The wind will make it feel even colder in the mountains where highs will only be in the 40's or 30's above 8000 feet. A system moving through to our North Thursday morning could bring a few scattered snow showers with snow levels below lake level. Better chance for just clouds and more breezy conditions.
Not much change to the forecast over the last week for next weekend. It still looks like the trough will deepen down the West Coast next weekend. Everything seems to be lining up for a cold pattern for the first time this season. Like we have been talking about the MJO finally made it into Phase 2 and progressing through the Indian Ocean into Phase 3.
The PNA pattern is responding with the ridge retrograding out towards the Aleutians by next weekend and we go into a negative pattern.
Look at the 500mb height pattern on the GFS ensembles by next Sunday.
and deepening into Tuesday the 7th..
I am a little excited about the possible pattern change. I have been looking at models for 6 months waiting for the teleconnection forecasts to lineup with a possible West Coast trough with a cold unsettled pattern. It hasn't happened all Winter. It's getting a little late in the season for big snow, but at least we finally could get the pattern. The warm air over land with the Spring season is having more of an affect on the pattern than the warm water off the coast finally, and with the MJO in the Indian Ocean for the first time this season we could actually see several days or more of cold and some snow. Too little too late but some resorts will still be open into the week of the 6th.
The pattern could start with the trough deepening next Sunday with light snow showers and much colder air. The models are still hinting that a stronger storm dives into the trough from the Gulf of Alaska on the 7th that could bring some decent snow. Still 9 days away so not going to get too excited yet. Only excited that the ridge disappears for a little while finally. The snow would be a bonus. Most of you don't care or don't want a colder pattern but I think the change is a frustration reliever. Most chances for storms this season have been warm and this would be a cold pattern with or without snow. With snow snow levels would be well below lake level.
Here is the GFS total precip forecast over the next 10 days...
The Canadian total precip...
I don't know if there is even anyone reading anymore, most of you have given up on Winter. But if you are still watching and hoping for one more snow day, or a fan of weather, this change could make for fun couple of weeks of weather watching. In a good year it would be a yawn, but this season this week could be more interesting than most this season. The following weekend of the 11th ensemble runs hint at a another trough digging in.