Tahoe Daily Snow

Stop Teasing Us...

Summary

Beautiful weather this weekend into the upcoming week will begin a cooling trend later in the week. The forecast models are once again flirting with possible precipitation for northern CA for next weekend.

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Short Term Forecast

We are enjoying a beautiful weekend with sunny smoke-free skies and warm temperatures. Highs have been near 70 degrees at lake level.

We will start the week ahead with similar weather. A weak trough may bring a slight cooldown for Thu-Fri. But overall a dry pattern through the upcoming week.

While we wait for some weather action you could check out the Virtual Skitober Show that Jonny Moseley did this weekend for Peter Glenn Ski & Sports. The link below is for the page with the shows starting this past Friday. There is an interview with me in there around the 5-hour mark on Friday.

https://www.youtube.com/user/PeterGlennSports/videos

Extended Forecast

I have been keeping an eye on next weekend all week, especially over the last few days. The average of the ensemble models have been showing precipitation chances even though the deterministic model runs have been showing little if any chance for precip this far south.

The latest model runs have been trending a bit farther south with the trough as it digs south into the Western U.S. next weekend.

trough

We should see the winds turn north-northeasterly next weekend which will filter in colder air. Highs may drop into the 50s at lake level and 30s for the upper mountains. It should feel like fall.

cold

If the trough digs farther southwest there is the chance that some light precipitation pushes south into the sierra with the front. The Candian model is the farthest south with the precipitation on the latest forecast model runs this morning.

gem

The GFS has trended in a similar direction on the latest run. Usually more than 5 days out I just look at the average of the dozens of ensemble member model runs, which continue to show precipitation chances next weekend on the GFS, Canadian, and European model shown below.

euro

Not a big deal but it could dust the peaks. We tried this last week but the system shifted just to our north and kept us dry. Hopefully, the models aren't just teasing us again and the trend towards the chance for light precipitation will continue. You can see that our long-range snow models are picking up on the chance for light snow and colder temps for the upper elevations including Mt. Rose next weekend.

mtrose

The fantasy range models show the chance for more systems around the end of the month into the first week of November. You can see that with the increase in the total precipitation forecast through November 1st.

2 week precip

We will have to continue to watch as we get closer to be sure the long-range models are also not just teasing us. I do like that the active phase of the MJO is finally moving out of the Maritime Continent region into the Western Pacific, and forecast to be progressive going forward. Hopefully, that will help to give a kick to the stuck weather pattern. We also have a better chance of storms as the jetstream strengthens going into November.

I'll be posting more frequently this week and going forward if it looks like we will be seeing a more active weather pattern. Let's hope!

Stay tuned...BA

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