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Thunderstorms and rain showers possible Friday. A nice weekend and then a big change possible next week. We could see much colder air and some snow next Tuesday-Wednesday, and another system possible by the end of the week.
A front will be moving through to our North tonight into Friday morning. The precip from this front will stay to our North. A low coming into SoCal tomorrow will increase instability in the atmosphere. We may see some thunderstorms or light rain showers.
The temperatures stay in the 60's at lake level and 50's on the mountains through Monday. The sun returns for the weekend. By Sunday the ridge is way out in the Pacific around 160w. That will allow a cold low pressure and trough to dig down along the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska.
The European and Canadian model runs are now more in line with the GFS in showing the cold front approaching Monday night into Tuesday morning. We could see a few inches of snow on the mountains with the front. Temeperatures on the mountains drop into the 30's Tuesday into Wednesday behind the cold front. The GFS was increasing precip amounts going into Wednesday by bringing the main low into Northern CA with another round of snow. It is further North this morning more in line with the other models. Either way we could see scatterend snow showers around into Wednesday.
Total snowfall amounts on the latest runs could be 3-6 inches on the mountains with slightly more along the crest. We will continue to watch the trend on snowfall amounts as we get closer. At lake level we could see some light accumulations if the snow falls at night. The snow levels will be below lake level. Here is the Canadian total precip forecast through next Wednesday which is a good representation of the average of all the models right now.
The ridge looks like it will stay out near 160w through the end of next week which should keep the storm door open. Models are showing another trough digging down the West Coast towards the end of the week with snow possible into the weekend of the 25th.
Like I have been saying the past couple of weeks, we may still have another powder day or two before all the ski resorts close.
Chance for light rain Friday. Sunny weather for the weekend. Then a cold system approaches for next Tuesday and Wednesday. This one could bring some snow to the mountains.
So I have started to cut back to posting every other day with the ski season winding down and the lack of snow in the forecast. The forecast models are showing some systems for next week. This time of the year I won't get very confident on a storm until it is within the 1 week window. The last couple of posts I have mentioned the models showing the ridge retrograding this weekend and the possibility of some systems. We are within 7 days of one of them so we will start to watch more closely.
The mean ridge position is off the coast and will retrograde out to around 150w by Thursday. A system is going to move into British Columbia and the Pacific NW Friday. The latest runs of all the models have us on the Southern edge of this system. We should see some clouds Friday and we could see some light precip with mostly rain and high snow levels. Amounts look very light if we do see some rain showers.
Then we clear out for what is closing weekend for many ski resorts, with highs back where they have been the past week. The ridge stays out near 150w and a trough looks like it will try to dig down the West Coast next Tuesday-Wednesday. The GFS and European runs have been pretty consistent in showing a cold system pushing in with this trough with snowfall for the mountains. The Euro is a bit further North than the GFS on the track. Not a big system but maybe some accumulating snow on the mountains. This system is only 7 days out now so we will have to start watching more closely. The next post Thursday will be within 5 days and if the storm is still on track we can look at potential snowfall amounts.
The storm door may stay open through the end of next week with the ridge remaining well off the West Coast. The long-range of the model runs does show the potential for another system towards the end of next week. This one is definitely low confidence being more than a week out.
Squaw, Alpine, and Kirkwood are going to be open through the 27th so there is still a chance we see another day or 2 of fresh snow. Alpine is saying weekends into May. So fingers crossed we can see a little more snow before we completely end the ski season.
Spring weather looks to continue through Easter Sunday. Lots of sun with high's in the 50's on the mountains and 60's at lake level.
We are winding down the ski season this week. The ridge will be sitting off the coast keeping the storm track to our North. It is looking a little more amplified since the last post which will keep the storms a bit further North into Washington. That will mean less of a cool down down, so temperatures should stay where they have been into next weekend.
The GFS and Canadian model runs continue to show the ridge retrograding next weekend with a chance for a storm to start the following week. There continues to be low confidence in the long-range of the models since we are into Spring, and because the models have been showing storms in the long-range and then shifting them North as we get closer.
It looks like we won't see any more snow on the ski resorts before most of them close, but we will continue to monitor for any chances of snow later in the month and into May.
Spring weather will continue with sunny skies and highs in the 60's through the weekend. Next week a series of storms moving through to our North will cool us down into the 50's with some clouds and light precip possible. No measurable snow in the forecast for the next 2 weeks.
The mean ridge position is off the Pacific NW coast and will shift North this weekend. High pressure will build out near 150w by Monday. That opens the storm door, but with no storms at the door. It's pretty surprising that it won't be snowing this weekend since I have to go out of town. I had to leave 2 weeks ago for the weekend and we got several feet which is typical.
The ridge will build towards the CA coast next week as storms finally reach the West Coast. That should keep the storms to our North into the Pacific NW. The GFS on every run up until the 6z run this morning had a system coming into Northern CA Tue-Wed and again Fri-Sat next week. It is now showing the same as the other models in keeping the precip just to our North.
These will be cold storms hitting the Pacific NW so we will cool down back into the 40's on the mountains and 50's at lake level by Tuesday or Wednesday into next weekend. It is still possible that the systems coming slightly further South and we get some light precip, but right now at best it looks like clouds only.
The active pattern looks like it may continue for the Pacific NW in the long-range. The jet stream looks to stay far enough North to keep us out of the precip. We will have to watch and see if any storms dig further South, but after the ski resorts close next weekend only the back country folks will be paying much attention.
Sunny weather with highs in the 60's will continue through the weekend and into early next week. We may see a system bring cooler weather and some precip next Wednesday and again Easter weekend.
The warm weather continues through the weekend. The ridge will shift North by the weekend with low pressure moving into Southern CA. That may generate some showers in the Sierra, but it looks like any precip will stay to our South.
The ridge builds back in Sunday into Monday. Then the ridge breaks down as a trough moves into the Pacific NW by next Tuesday and then tries to dig further South Wednesday into Thursday. The models this morning are starting to show the possibility of cooler air and some precip next Wednesday Thursday. The Canadian model is the most bullish with the deepest trough and most precip for CA.
We will have to keep watching how the pattern develops for the middle of next week.
The ridge off the coast next week looks like it may retrograde further West as we approach Easter weekend which is the last weekend for most ski resorts. The models are showing a large trough dropping down off the West Coast for that weekend. This is 10 days out but something to watch. If the trough sets up close enough to the West Coast we could have a snowy final weekend to the season.
In Other News:
March saw 64% of average precip in the Tahoe Basin bringing us to 65% of average for the water year. Temperatures for the month averaged 1.7 degrees below average as reported at the Truckee airport. Snow pack to end the month was around 40% of average. The ski resorts are around 57% of average for the season up top.