- Monday looks like a mostly sunny day with highs in the 30s for the upper elevations and 40s at lake level. Then Tuesday we could see some clouds from a weak system moving through to the north that could brush us with a few showers. Similar temperatures to Monday and lighter winds continuing. - Starting Wednesday through next weekend a strong area of high pressure builds in over CA. That will bring dry and sunny weather along with mild temperatures. Highs into the 50s at lake level by Thursday into next weekend. - A pattern change next Sunday could bring a colder pattern but still dry.
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Short Term Forecast
Sunday Morning Storm Recap:
It's a cloudy morning in the Tahoe Basin with the sun trying to peek out. Temperatures are in the 20s on the mountains with lighter winds.
We had a refresh of the snow on the slopes Sunday morning from a fast-moving storm that moved in during the early morning hours and ended by late morning. Snow levels dropped to lake level Sunday morning with reports of anywhere from nothing on the east side of the lake up to 4 inches reported west of 89 on the west side of the lake.
On the mountains, the ski areas are reporting totals of 6-11 inches on the west side of the lake, 2-4 inches on the east side, and 3-4 inches for the ski areas south of Tahoe. Squaw is the first to break 200" for the season.
The storm performed pretty much as expected. One ski area on the east side of the lake came in 1 inch under the final forecast, and Sugar Bowl came in 2 inches over. The rest came in right on forecast. Here is the Keep Me Honest variance report for the storm, comparing the final forecast from Saturday morning to the totals reported Monday morning.
This was thicker snow that brought a nice refresh to the slopes ahead of the drier pattern ahead. As of this morning, the ski areas averaged together around the lake are at 94% of average snowfall for the date, but that will fall off over the next 2 weeks.
Monday - Wednesday:
Partly sunny skies expected through Wednesday as storms move through to the north.
Expecting highs in the 30s for the upper elevations and 40s at lake level. Can't rule out a stray snowflake north of the lake Tuesday. Monday the winds could gust from the west up to 40+ mph by afternoon. Tuesday the winds could increase to 60+ mph over the ridges, possibly affecting some upper mountain lifts. Then cool east winds gusting to 40+ mph Wednesday.
Thursday Into the Weekend:
Expecting lighter winds and warming temperatures starting Thursday into the weekend as a strong area of high pressure builds in over CA.
Highs warming about 10 degrees Thursday, and then into the 50s for most elevations Friday into the weekend. We should see plenty of sun, so goggle tan season might get an early start. If you are looking for cold air this week, you will need to go to Alaska.
We are still expecting a pattern change starting around Sunday night as the ridge shifts east and a weak trough brings cooler air into the West. We could see some light snow with a cold front Sunday night. High pressure is just off the coast going into the week of the 3rd keeping us dry but cooler temps expected.
Here is a look at the 10-day total precipitation forecast. You can see that the Pacific NW up into BC is getting most of the action. We have the chance for a stray shower Tuesday and light precip Sunday night on the southern edge.
The long-range models are still in decent agreement that the ridge off the coast could retrograde west the week of the 10th. That could allow for colder air to push into the West, and could possibly open up the storm door enough to get some storms from the northwest. Let's hope that trend continues...
The week of the 10th is around the halfway point of the season, so we still have the 2nd half of the season and plenty of time to still get big snows at some point.
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