Tahoe Daily Snow

Weak System Friday night, Stronger Storms Starting Monday...

Summary

- We have a brief break in the storms Friday morning with some sun &clouds and highs in the 30's on the mountains to near 40 at lake level. Clouds increase in the afternoon with light snow from next storm possibly arriving along the crest during the afternoon. Ridgetop winds gusting 30-40 mph. - The brunt of the storm moves through quickly Friday night, with snow showers possible Saturday. Snow levels should fall to lake level as the storm moves in, and to 5,500 feet by Saturday morning. This system could drop a quick 1-6 inches of snow across the Tahoe basin. Highs remain in the 30's on the mountains into Saturday. - We will see another break on Sunday with sun and cool temperatures. - We will see a prolonged storm Monday - Thursday with several waves moving into CA. We could see several inches of snow on the mountains each day, that could add up to 1.5 - 3.5 feet of snow on the mountains by Thursday. Snow levels could hover around 6,500 feet through Wednesday morning before falling below lake level and below 5,000 feet by Thursday. We should see some strong winds with this storm. - We could see a break the weekend of the 30th. But the storms could return through the 1st week of April.

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Short Term Forecast

Not much change to the forecast today.  We have a weaker system with light snowfall amounts tonight into Saturday, a break Sunday, and stronger storms Monday-Thursday next week.

Friday - Saturday Storm:

Clouds are increasing this morning as the next storm begins to push into CA.

sat

Rain is falling near the coast and that will slowly push east towards the Sierra through the day today.

rain

We could see light snow reach the west side of the lake along the crest this afternoon.  Not expecting more than light snow showers with a dusting to an inch of snow by this evening.  

This system is weakening as it moves inland tonight and it is fast moving.  So we aren't expecting heavy snow and the precipitation totals on the models are pretty meager through Saturday.  We could see 1-3 inches of snow tonight.  Low pressure over NV on Saturday should keep snow showers around with another 1-2 inches of snow possible.

The latest forecast model runs show only 2-4 tenths of an inch of total precipitation for the east side of the lake, and 3-6 tenths for the west side. 

nam

Snow levels could start around 6,500 feet this evening but should drop below lake level down to around 5,500 feet pretty quickly tonight.  So we could see an inch or two at lake level.  Here is the final forecast for this storm.  Not much different than the last few days.

final forecast

We could start to clear out Saturday afternoon with some peeks of sun.  Then we should see blue skies for Sunday.  Temperatures are cool behind the storm with highs in the 30's on the upper mountains and 40's at lake level through Sunday.

Stronger Storms:

A broad area of low pressure will be spinning off the West Coast Monday and Tuesday.  The first wave pushes precipitation in sometime on Monday.  The European model holds off until later in the afternoon while the GFS brings in snow by early morning Monday.  Snow levels look to start off below lake level Monday morning and rise to around 6,500 feet by afternoon and could hover there Monday night.  We could see 2-7 inches of snow on the mountains by Tuesday morning.

The latest model runs don't show a break now for Tuesday.  They are showing more moisture being drawn into CA as the low approaches the coast.  We could see snow showers continue Tuesday with snow levels still hovering around 6,500 feet.  Tuesday night we expect some heavier snow to push in as low pressure off the coast begins to push into Northern CA.  By Wednesday morning we could see an additional 3-10 inches on the mountains.

These snow levels are for when snow is falling.  When we see breaks in the precip they could go up above 7,000 feet until heavier precip starts again.  

We could see the heaviest snow Wednesday into Wednesday evening as the low moves across Northern CA.  Colder air also moves in dropping snow levels below lake level.  This not only brings the chance for accumulating snow to lake level but increases the snow ratios on the mountains so that the snow piles up a little faster and is drier.  We could see an additional 1-2+ feet of snow on the mountains Wednesday-Wednesday night, and several inches at lake level.

There is still a big range on the models for the 3 days, with some models showing only up to 1.5 inches of total precipitation, while others like the GFS are showing up to 4.9 inches.  I have been waiting for the models to trend wetter with this system, so the GFS may be the first to catch on, but the Euro is trending wetter as well.  Here is a look a the GFS through Wednesday night.

GFS

We will have to watch the trend over the next few days.  The average of the models right now is getting close to 3 inches of total precipitation with average snow ratios of 11-12:1 at 8,000 feet.  The snow levels look to be just above lake level through Wednesday morning, but mostly all snow on the mountains  We are are still 5-6 days out from Wednesday so the forecast has time to trend up or down, but here is the updated snowfall forecast through Wednesday.

forecast2

There is a final wave forecast to move through on Thursday that could drop a few final inches of snow before the storm clears out Thursday night.  We should see a break next Friday but some model runs show a weak system brushing us with light snow.  It will stay cold through the week with highs in the 30's on the mountains through Friday.

Extended Forecast

It still looks like we could see high-pressure build in briefly next weekend with a break in the storms.

high pressure

It is weak though and won't last long.  The latest European model run showed a weak system trying to push light snow in on Saturday.  But for now, I'm sticking with a dry forecast for the weekend.

It may be short-lived as the storm track wants to stay aimed at CA through the first week of April.  We could see several storms the first week of April, starting as early as Monday the 1st.  No fooling.

trough

I'll let you know when I see signs that Spring could show up, or maybe we will skip Spring and go straight to Summer.  Not uncommon for Tahoe.

Stay tuned...BA

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