Tahoe Daily Snow

Snow Day...

Summary

Heavy Snow Monday morning down below lake level will become lighter later in the day and end by evening. A few showers are possible Tuesday afternoon. Then we may have a drier pattern through at least the 1st week of November.

Short Term Forecast

Update 12 PM:

Here are the resort totals so far as of this morning. The snow is finally tapering off around the lake as of midday. We will have storm totals Tuesday morning...

totals

From This Morning:

Obviously, if you live here, the snow levels dropped much faster and lower than any models were showing overnight. Snow levels dropped to 7000 ft. on the north side of the lake by 10 PM, about 3-6 hours faster than the models were showing. They also dropped much lower with snow below 5000 ft. down into Reno.

This will boost the snowfall totals for the lower elevations. Already some reports of a foot of snow at lake level, and I was worried my high end of 8 inches was too high, lol. This is quite a storm. Not only one of the wettest we've seen, but the models totally missed the amount and timing of the cold air. We went from wet to white today.

I am going to get as many stats as I can this morning, but most of the storm totals we will have to wait until Tuesday morning to tally up. So far I know that Blue Canyon broke the 24-hour record with 10.4" of precipitation yesterday.

It's looking very snow in Truckee this morning...

truckee

...and close to 2 feet so far at the base of Sugar Bowl?!

sb

I wonder how much snow fell above 9000' where it stayed all snow. Watching the cams it looked like the top of Mt. Rose stayed all snow for most of the storm. But the winds were also blowing to 140+ mph yesterday.

mt rose

It will be nearly impossible to get snowfall reports from that high. We will have to see how many of the closed ski resorts give reports for the upper mountains...

Just to show you how hard it is to predict snow levels with a storm like this. While it's snowing down below 5000' here, it's still raining above 8000' this morning in Mammoth.

mammoth

We got onto the cold side of the AR and got lucky, enjoy!

The Forecast:

The impressive storm is moving into BC and the backside of the AR is shifting south through CA this morning.

satellite

Heavy snow continues Monday morning and the latest model runs show the heaviest precip shifting south of the lake by noon. Then a few scattered showers possible this afternoon before clearing this evening. Highs in the 30s with lighter winds today. Here is a look at the final precipitation expected for today.

final precip

The heaviest precipitation continues to fall to the south where snow levels are still falling. We could see up to a final inch of precip along the crest. Maybe a final 6-12" of snow on the upper mountains from 4 AM this morning through noon, and 3-6" for lake level up to 7000'.

Tuesday:

The showers moving through northern CA Tuesday afternoon could bring us some clouds and a few scattered showers. But snow levels will be rising. Highs in the 30s to near 40 at lake level. Snow levels rise to 6500-7000 by midday and 7500-8000 ft. during the afternoon. Ridgetop winds could also increase gusting to 70+ mph Tuesday afternoon.

Extended Forecast

Wednesday high pressure builds in over the region. We should see mostly sunny skies through at least Friday. Highs warming into the 50s at lake level and 40s for the upper mountains, with lighter winds expected.

We could still see a few stray showers Saturday from a weak system moving through to our north, but the chances seem low right now. Overall, we may see high pressure over the West with a fairly dry pattern through at least the 1st week of November.

At least we started off the season with a nice big storm! Plenty of time to get the final winter forecast out and to track the long-range for when the storms will return in November...

Stay tuned...BA

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